Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
sb_73 said:
Johnson tells us that war would be disastrous for Russia, but it’s not inevitable.

That’s reassuring, coming from him.

Everyone seems to be talking up the chances of conflict followed by sanctions from the west, followed by Russia upping the price of oil and gas, or reducing/cutting supply (which presumably it can’t afford to do for long) which immediately hits a lot of European countries, but eventually hits everyone as competition for gas, especially LPG, intensifies. On top of all the other gas price rises of course this hits the poorest hardest.

Perhaps the doom mongering is just a way to big themselves up when rabbit out of a hat agreements are reached. Russia’s starting position is pretty stark - (The) Ukraine never to join NATO, NATO troops out of Eastern European countries (Baltics, Poland…..) complete removal of nuclear weapons from Europe (ie France and U.K. disarm). This sounds so old fashioned, kind of 1930s.

The world and his wife seem to be commenting for the west, Johnson, some German admiral, Biden/Blinken, not at all clear where leadership lies, what the shared line is, and how far they will really go. Western alliance could be in the worst shape of my lifetime…..

Meanwhile Xi rubs his hands in glee.
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Do you think some kind of compromise can be found ? From Putins point of view that looks really unlikely as I can’t see the West giving any of those items they you’ve listed….and if he just says “oh well, no harm in trying” and gives up (thus leaving Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine to their fate…then he loses massive face which doesn’t seem his style.
What’s your view G ?
 
Staines R's said:
Do you think some kind of compromise can be found ? From Putins point of view that looks really unlikely as I can’t see the West giving any of those items they you’ve listed….and if he just says “oh well, no harm in trying” and gives up (thus leaving Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine to their fate…then he loses massive face which doesn’t seem his style.
What’s your view G ?
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If we had firm, clear leadership I would imagine that we would find some way for Putin to save face, guarantees for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, perhaps some constitutional changes to ensure they have national representation, which Putin can parade around at home.

But we don’t have that kind of leadership, and haven’t had it for a long time. Ultimately the western nation most at risk, and least likely to want a fight, is Germany. They’ll freeze without Russian gas. I suspect Russia will end up with a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and then a ceasefire will enable it to be annexed into Mother Russia…..and if that’s what the majority of the local population want, it’s fine by me.

Complete guesswork on my part. I have no idea how well equipped, trained, motivated etc Russian soldiers are. I don’t know why they would want to fight in the middle of winter. Likewise, though they are in better shape militarily than a few years ago, I know zero about Ukrainian capabilities. Isn’t their president a comedian who stood for a joke?
 
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sb_73 said:
Complete guesswork on my part. I have no idea how well equipped, trained, motivated etc Russian soldiers are. I don’t know why they would want to fight in the middle of winter. Likewise, though they are in better shape militarily than a few years ago
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And why would the West want to get involved in Winter, even worse equipped than the Russians - and they have history on their side for Winter conflicts....it was "General Winter" that did for the Nazis at Stalingrad
 
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sb_73 said:
If we had firm, clear leadership I would imagine that we would find some way for Putin to save face, guarantees for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, perhaps some constitutional changes to ensure they have national representation, which Putin can parade around at home.

But we don’t have that kind of leadership, and haven’t had it for a long time. Ultimately the western nation most at risk, and least likely to want a fight, is Germany. They’ll freeze without Russian gas. I suspect Russia will end up with a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and then a ceasefire will enable it to be annexed into Mother Russia…..and if that’s what the majority of the local population want, it’s fine by me.

Complete guesswork on my part. I have no idea how well equipped, trained, motivated etc Russian soldiers are. I don’t know why they would want to fight in the middle of winter. Likewise, though they are in better shape militarily than a few years ago, I know zero about Ukrainian capabilities. Isn’t their president a comedian who stood for a joke?
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Do you not think though that Ukraine would never allow any more of its territory to be annexed after Crimea ? sorry to so full of questions but I’m finding all this fascinating and has a real potential to spiral Europe and the World into global conflict.
Genuinely interested in your opinions
 
Steelmonkey said:
And why would the West want to get involved in Winter, even worse equipped than the Russians - and they have history on their side for Winter conflicts....it was "General Winter" that did for the Nazis at Stalingrad
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…and Napoleon at Moscow. I don’t think there is any chance of any western forces being directly involved, the Ukrainians get diplomatic and economic support. No interest in body bags at Brize Norton or in any other country. And I suspect Russian body bags will not be a good look for Putin either. From what I have read the Ukrainians do not think they would beat the Russian army, but they have a lot of irregulars trained in sabotage etc and would be prepared to inflict a lot of damage fighting on home soil.

Surely Putin would restrict himself to areas where the locals are friendly?
 
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Staines R's said:
Do you not think though that Ukraine would never allow any more of its territory to be annexed after Crimea ? sorry to so full of questions but I’m finding all this fascinating and has a real potential to spiral Europe and the World into global conflict.
Genuinely interested in your opinions
Click to expand...
Staines, I’m just guessing!

I don’t think the Ukrainians would ultimately have much say- if the Russians really want to fight they will win, unless their soldiers aren’t up for it. But at a cost which might be too much for Putin. I just can’t imagine any western nation getting involved in terms of fighting. They might for the Baltic states or Poland though.
 
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sb_73 said:
Staines, I’m just guessing!

I don’t think the Ukrainians would ultimately have much say- if the Russians really want to fight they will win, unless their soldiers aren’t up for it. But at a cost which might be too much for Putin. I just can’t imagine any western nation getting involved in terms of fighting. They might for the Baltic states or Poland though.
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Yes mate, honestly understand it’s just your opinions. It’s all very interesting and like a game of chess waiting for who is gonna make the first move…..
 
sb_73 said:
If we had firm, clear leadership I would imagine that we would find some way for Putin to save face, guarantees for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, perhaps some constitutional changes to ensure they have national representation, which Putin can parade around at home.

But we don’t have that kind of leadership, and haven’t had it for a long time. Ultimately the western nation most at risk, and least likely to want a fight, is Germany. They’ll freeze without Russian gas. I suspect Russia will end up with a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and then a ceasefire will enable it to be annexed into Mother Russia…..and if that’s what the majority of the local population want, it’s fine by me.

Complete guesswork on my part. I have no idea how well equipped, trained, motivated etc Russian soldiers are. I don’t know why they would want to fight in the middle of winter. Likewise, though they are in better shape militarily than a few years ago, I know zero about Ukrainian capabilities. Isn’t their president a comedian who stood for a joke?
Click to expand...

Germany are appeasing Putin (they should know better).
Just because there is no outward appearance of decent leadership in the West, it's naive in the extreme to imagine that all the things you mention aren't being discussed behind the scenes.
Unfortunately, the idiot Biden will probably blurt out the West's strategy any day now.
 
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rangercol said:
Germany are appeasing Putin (they should know better).
Just because there is no outward appearance of decent leadership in the West, it's naive in the extreme to imagine that all the things you mention aren't being discussed behind the scenes.
Unfortunately, the idiot Biden will probably blurt out the West's strategy any day now.
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I’m sure intelligence and military leadership is cooperating and discussing in depth between key nations, and have plenty of well thought out strategies.

It’s political leadership I’m lacking confidence in, as are you it seems. Not just Biden either.
 
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Staines R's said:
From what I’ve seen of the general Ukrainian psyche….I think they make Ellers look like a raging communist.
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That's probably true...lol.
I had a Ukrainian student..I invited her for dinner once, she bought me a pipe and a bottle of Vodka as a present....whilst I showed her my "estate"...she spotted my children's rabbits...."we eat them ...yes?".
 
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Our cuddly PM doesn’t seem so upbeat about it all now….talks of “lightning war to take out Kiev” “new Chechnya” and “My judgement is that they will fight”

Bracknell, Ellers and all the youngest……wrap up well while us old ‘uns keep the homefires burning
 
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