Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
Goldhawk-Road said:
My take on likliest scenario. Corbyn refuses a GE on Monday. Johnson refuses to go the EU for an extension. He resigns as PM. Corbyn takes over as caretaker but cannot get a majority to support him. There is a GE with Boris fighting as the opposition
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Another possibility being mooted (by a FT journalist). Boris calls for a vote of confidence in himself and his government. He needs a simple majority. Labour will abstain, seeing a trap. They certainly won't vote for him. He succeeds in losing , so to speak, by passing the vote, and then 14 days has to pass for others to form another govt - except that they can't because parliament is prorogued. So matters moves straight into a GE
 
Goldhawk-Road said:
Yes, I think both the Tories and Labour will be cleaned out of Scotland. It's the Remain parties of SNP and to a much smaller extent, the Lib Dems that will thrive. I can see Scotland becoming a one party state!
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We did that at the GE after the Independance Referendum, when SNP won 54 of the 59 seats, the other parties getting one each. However, at the last GE the SNP only got 35, losing seats to all parties, but mainly the Tories under Ruth Davidsons guidance. The next GE will be difficult to gauge as the SNP will go all out Remain but leave the UK, Lib Dems will be Remain, but also remain in the UK, Labour don't rrally know what they want with Brexit, although Scottish Labour will probably push for Remain but there's mixed messages from the Labour leadership about whether they would grant another Independance Referendum, with Corbyn and McDonnell saying they may give in to it, and then agreeing with Richard Leonard that they would not hold one. The Greens are generally in favour of Independance, and do well at local elections up here, but I don't see them troubling the major parties at a GE. That leaves the Scottish Tories....what their stance will be one can only guess, but as they are currently without a leader and will be unlikely to find one who has the dynamism and charisma of Davidson, who's debates with Sturgeon are great theatre, is doubtful.

Here's the current status of MPs in Scotland...

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I'd guess at the next GE that the SNP may get a couple more seats, but the Lib Dems will take a large chunk out of the Tory seats - it probably also helps that their leader is now Scottish. In a closely fought election, these seats could be pivotal to the final standings : intriguing times ....
 
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Steelmonkey said:
We did that at the GE after the Independance Referendum, when SNP won 54 of the 59 seats, the other parties getting one each. However, at the last GE the SNP only got 35, losing seats to all parties, but mainly the Tories under Ruth Davidsons guidance. The next GE will be difficult to gauge as the SNP will go all out Remain but leave the UK, Lib Dems will be Remain, but also remain in the UK, Labour don't rrally know what they want with Brexit, although Scottish Labour will probably push for Remain but there's mixed messages from the Labour leadership about whether they would grant another Independance Referendum, with Corbyn and McDonnell saying they may give in to it, and then agreeing with Richard Leonard that they would not hold one. The Greens are generally in favour of Independance, and do well at local elections up here, but I don't see them troubling the major parties at a GE. That leaves the Scottish Tories....what their stance will be one can only guess, but as they are currently without a leader and will be unlikely to find one who has the dynamism and charisma of Davidson, who's debates with Sturgeon are great theatre, is doubtful.

Here's the current status of MPs in Scotland...

You must log in or register to see images


I'd guess at the next GE that the SNP may get a couple more seats, but the Lib Dems will take a large chunk out of the Tory seats - it probably also helps that their leader is now Scottish. In a closely fought election, these seats could be pivotal to the final standings : intriguing times ....
Click to expand...

That's a great summary, Steel. You're right, Scotland could be very important in a GE. The Lib Dems lead by a Scot and being Remain will do well. The question is whether the Tories and Labour will be both equally out of favour. According to Ian Blackford, it looks like a GE will be held in November now. How we get to it and past the October 31 date is anyone's guess.
 
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Goldhawk-Road said:
This swing was not seen in the elections to the European Parliament. I suspect a GE will be held in November. This will be a Brexit election. Then we'll have a clearer idea of the electorate's current view
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Yes I was just looking at the current political climate especially in Wales where things look to have changed significantly since the EU elections following the last few months.

Certain of course the Brexit party will do well there but it’s the accumulation of the rest including Plaid Cymru and the pro remain alliance... Incredible swing following the No deal scenario and one example the 40% tariff on lamb exports... Don’t believe me of course if you wish but it’s current and shows how strange anything is.

The Turk mentioned 2m pro remainers in Scotland in fact it’s 1.6m my point is with Scotland and the surge of public opinion we could see a complete change in figures.

The common dominator currently is how it looks like any Brexit is impossible and full of complications couple that with the tiredness of people’s opinion just to end it all I believe you will see some really strange results.

Turk by the way I am not even affected by Brexit really personally my drive for the topic is because I care about the fallout for the younger generations who I hope they get a chance. That means Europe and certainly not the UK which is sadly heading the wrong way imo. It’s the generation of old nationalists in the UK that I fully hold responsible for dragging and morning the UK to the pits

In the words of Al Capone : **** off
 
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DT’s Socks said:
Yes I was just looking at the current political climate especially in Wales where things look to have changed significantly since the EU elections following the last few months.

Certain of course the Brexit party will do well there but it’s the accumulation of the rest including Plaid Cymru and the pro remain alliance... Incredible swing following the No deal scenario and one example the 40% tariff on lamb exports... Don’t believe me of course if you wish but it’s current and shows how strange anything is.

The Turk mentioned 2m pro remainers in Scotland in fact it’s 1.6m my point is with Scotland and the surge of public opinion we could see a complete change in figures.

The common dominator currently is how it looks like any Brexit is impossible and full of complications couple that with the tiredness of people’s opinion just to end it all I believe you will see some really strange results.

Turk by the way I am not even affected by Brexit really personally my drive for the topic is because I care about the fallout for the younger generations who I hope they get a chance. That means Europe and certainly not the UK which is sadly heading the wrong way imo. It’s the generation of old nationalists in the UK that I fully hold responsible for dragging and morning the UK to the pits

In the words of Al Capone : **** off
Click to expand...

It's said that the campaign is everything leading up to a GE. And Corbyn certainly got the better of May in 2107. But I wonder this time, whether it is. It really is pretty much Brexit first, and other stuff later. Everyone's going to say they'll spend money on NHS, Police, social services, your granny etc. It's a Brexit election, coming to us soon
 
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DT’s Socks said:
Yes I was just looking at the current political climate especially in Wales where things look to have changed significantly since the EU elections following the last few months.

Certain of course the Brexit party will do well there but it’s the accumulation of the rest including Plaid Cymru and the pro remain alliance... Incredible swing following the No deal scenario and one example the 40% tariff on lamb exports... Don’t believe me of course if you wish but it’s current and shows how strange anything is.

The Turk mentioned 2m pro remainers in Scotland in fact it’s 1.6m my point is with Scotland and the surge of public opinion we could see a complete change in figures.

The common dominator currently is how it looks like any Brexit is impossible and full of complications couple that with the tiredness of people’s opinion just to end it all I believe you will see some really strange results.

Turk by the way I am not even affected by Brexit really personally my drive for the topic is because I care about the fallout for the younger generations who I hope they get a chance. That means Europe and certainly not the UK which is sadly heading the wrong way imo. It’s the generation of old nationalists in the UK that I fully hold responsible for dragging and morning the UK to the pits

In the words of Al Capone : **** off
Click to expand...
In the words of Turkish Premier hoops
“Kiss my proud brexiteer arse you halfwitted clown”
 
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How is it that so many Remainers are that sure that the country is now majority Remain and yet the opposition parties don’t want a General Erection (snigger) this side of Halloween that they’d surely win on a Remain ticket? If that was the case, they needn’t worry about such trifles as extending deadlines, but simply call the whole thing off.

Perhaps they’re not so sure of winning the Erection (snigger part deux), which then explains why they’re seeking to ensure every other frustration tactic.

The Nambies are clear that they want to Remain, but what exactly does Labour stand for?

Interesting piece in the Sun today (I know, I know) by a Spectator journo about what that one man Marxist Hate-Machine, McDonnell wants to do should they seize power.

Allow renters to buy their homes from landlords at a discount.

Renationalise the utility companies.

50% tax rate for rich people (apparently those earning £80k+.

Appropriating 10% of the equity of private companies with more than 250 employees to pay a maximum of £500 dividend to the blue collar workers.

A wealth tax on people with total assets (including their own homes and, I think, their pensions) of £360k+.

There was other stuff too.

If true, surefire vote winner that will really lead us all to prosperity, eh?
 
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Uber_Hoop said:
How is it that so many Remainers are that sure that the country is now majority Remain and yet the opposition parties don’t want a General Erection (snigger) this side of Halloween that they’d surely win on a Remain ticket? If that was the case, they needn’t worry about such trifles as extending deadlines, but simply call the whole thing off.

Perhaps they’re not so sure of winning the Erection (snigger part deux), which then explains why they’re seeking to ensure every other frustration tactic.

The Nambies are clear that they want to Remain, but what exactly does Labour stand for?

Interesting piece in the Sun today (I know, I know) by a Spectator journo about what that one man Marxist Hate-Machine, McDonnell wants to do should they seize power.

Allow renters to buy their homes from landlords at a discount.

Renationalise the utility companies.

50% tax rate for rich people (apparently those earning £80k+.

Appropriating 10% of the equity of private companies with more than 250 employees to pay a maximum of £500 dividend to the blue collar workers.

A wealth tax on people with total assets (including their own homes and, I think, their pensions) of £360k+.

There was other stuff too.

If true, surefire vote winner that will really lead us all to prosperity, eh?
Click to expand...

There will be an election Ubes, but not before Johnson has hung himself.(metaphorically),

McDonnell's proposals seem perfectly reasonable to me. What makes him a hate-machine in your eyes?
 
Uber_Hoop said:
How is it that so many Remainers are that sure that the country is now majority Remain and yet the opposition parties don’t want a General Erection (snigger) this side of Halloween that they’d surely win on a Remain ticket? If that was the case, they needn’t worry about such trifles as extending deadlines, but simply call the whole thing off.

Perhaps they’re not so sure of winning the Erection (snigger part deux), which then explains why they’re seeking to ensure every other frustration tactic.

The Nambies are clear that they want to Remain, but what exactly does Labour stand for?

Interesting piece in the Sun today (I know, I know) by a Spectator journo about what that one man Marxist Hate-Machine, McDonnell wants to do should they seize power.

Allow renters to buy their homes from landlords at a discount.

Renationalise the utility companies.

50% tax rate for rich people (apparently those earning £80k+.

Appropriating 10% of the equity of private companies with more than 250 employees to pay a maximum of £500 dividend to the blue collar workers.

A wealth tax on people with total assets (including their own homes and, I think, their pensions) of £360k+.

There was other stuff too.

If true, surefire vote winner that will really lead us all to prosperity, eh?
Click to expand...
I would have thought it was obvious that the majority could be for remain but they will still lose an election if their vote is separated over several parties. This is why an election cannot be seen as a substitute referendum.
 
Stroller said:
There will be an election Ubes, but not before Johnson has hung himself.(metaphorically),

McDonnell's proposals seem perfectly reasonable to me. What makes him a hate-machine in your eyes?
Click to expand...

It’s hanged, Strolls, not hung. :)

McDonnell is one of those nasty twats that overlooks the stress, effort & time those he labels as “rich” have gone through, and the livelihoods they’ve created for many others perhaps less gifted or well off, and his default assumption is that they’re nasty people undeserving of their wealth.

If he’s lucky enough to exercise such policies there’ll be brain drain similar to what we saw in the 70s, giving him a massive problem balancing the books.

The buy-your-rental problem will crash the housing market in new and exciting ways.

I’m sure you’ll disagree as that’s how it works. You could just type “****ery ****ery clickety-clackety **** bubbles” and Oslo will like it. Try it. :)
 
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colognehornet said:
I would have thought it was obvious that the majority could be for remain but they will still lose an election if their vote is separated over several parties. This is why an election cannot be seen as a substitute referendum.
Click to expand...
Yes, except at the speed this week that Tory MP's have been removed by Boris, switched party, or said they won't stand for the Tories at the next election, coupled with the Brexit party and UKIP, the leave vote maybe similarly separated, with Tories leaking both Remain voters, and no deal maniacs. There were some local votes yesterday which showed huge Tory losses to LibDem.
 
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