Off Topic The Politics Thread

[finglasqpr]

I doubt Boris will call a GE now, when Parliament is in recess. And I don't think he'd want one before we leave on 31 Oct, although there is talk today about a GE on Nov 1.

If there is a vote of no confidence in the Johnson govt in Sept, Parliament has 14 days to form an alternative govt, which Corbyn has stipulated has to have him as PM if he is to cooperate - it ain't going to happen, so Boris will go on.

I understand the need to avoid a no border between Ireland and N Ireland at all costs. I would have thought a backstop time limited to 5 years would give time for a technical solution to be arrived at to avoid the border. If the EU offered this, I think the withdrawal deal would get through Parliament.

I just have the impression that many Irish feel Varadkar is not handling the Brexit issue well. No deal would be a disaster for Ireland, and unlike the UK, would have no upside.

Sorry you won't take my sporting bet. I note that you feel the EU will not resile from their position. September/October will be fascinating. Yes, Boris is probably a hypocrite and personally, I've never been a fan due to his inability to bother with detail. But he's clever at getting good people around him to do the work, as he did as Mayor of London. European leaders come and go. If he lasts, and he will if he delivers Brexit, Boris will win some leaders around, not all (The French).

Thanks for the offer of the pint, and I hope I get to meet you at a game - although if we leave the EU and all parties can move forward, it's me that should be buying them.

Your impression on how Varadkar is perceived to be handling Brexit is completely wrong. The vast majority feel he is handling it exactly right despite the backlash he is receiving from the British press. He has the whole islands interests at heart and everybody I speak to respects him for that. He also has the backing of every country in the EU. They all know how important the backstop is for this island and they and Varadkar have all been consistent in insisting that it stays in the withdrawal agreement, even if it means a damaging no deal for everybody.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Your impression on how Varadkar is perceived to be handling Brexit is completely wrong. The vast majority feel he is handling it exactly right despite the backlash he is receiving from the British press. He has the whole islands interests at heart and everybody I speak to respects him for that. He also has the backing of every country in the EU. They all know how important the backstop is for this island and they and Varadkar have all been consistent in insisting that it stays in the withdrawal agreement, even if it means a damaging no deal for everybody.

Ok, I'll defer to you on that since your right on the source, and I'm using a British media filter.

I do feel it's been incredibly easy for the EU to maintain unity to date, not least because the EU negotiators ran rings around Theresa May and her feeble advisors. As I've said, the next couple of months will be a much bigger test for the EU.

 

[finglasqpr]

Ok, I'll defer to you on that since your right on the source, and I'm using a British media filter.

I do feel it's been incredibly easy for the EU to maintain unity to date, not least because the EU negotiators ran rings around Theresa May and her feeble advisors. As I've said, the next couple of months will be a much bigger test for the EU.

if Teresa May's advisors were so feeble, why did Boris vote for the deal?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Ok, I'll defer to you on that since your right on the source, and I'm using a British media filter.

I do feel it's been incredibly easy for the EU to maintain unity to date, not least because the EU negotiators ran rings around Theresa May and her feeble advisors. As I've said, the next couple of months will be a much bigger test for the EU.

I don’t really see what changes. Despite our ridiculous rhetoric, we need them more than they need us. Their consistency isn’t “intransigence”. It’s just sensible.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

if Teresa May's advisors were so feeble, why did Boris vote for the deal?

I think, because at the time, there was real fear it was May's deal or lose Brexit.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I don’t really see what changes. Despite our ridiculous rhetoric, we need them more than they need us. Their consistency isn’t “intransigence”. It’s just sensible.

Look at it this way. We get 1. Brexit done so we can move on with reaching trading agreements around the world 2. Keep £37 billion at least until the next round of EU negotiations

The EU gets nothing but 1. Economic disruption that could push Germany, whose economy is presently fragile, into a recession (we are a BIG customer for Germany) 2. Real difficulties for Ireland (if you believe British media and not Fing) 3 Real prospect of pushing the UK away from European affairs and towards the US

 

[finglasqpr]

Look at it this way. We get 1. Brexit done so we can move on with reaching trading agreements around the world 2. Keep £37 billion at least until the next round of EU negotiations

The EU gets nothing but 1. Economic disruption that could push Germany, whose economy is presently fragile, into a recession (we are a BIG customer for Germany) 2. Real difficulties for Ireland (if you believe British media and not Fing) 3 Real prospect of pushing the UK away from European affairs and towards the US

So, a no deal will affect Germany and Ireland so badly that the EU will crack and give Boris what he wants? I would advise you to ignore the Daily Mail and Telegraph propaganda machine. What about the UK? How will a no deal affect the UK? According to the Bank of England, your economy is already on the verge of entering recession. Listen Goldy, face facts. The UK are the desperados in all of this. Your country is facing the cliff edge, not the rest of Europe. If you think trump will be your saviour, think again. He will only do deals to the benefit of the U.S. and the detriment of everybody else. Remember, democrats in the U.S. senate have said they will block any Trump US/UK trade deal if peace in Ireland is affected in any way due to a no deal.

Wake up and smell the coffee Goldy before it's too late.

 

[bobmid]

So, a no deal will affect Germany and Ireland so badly that the EU will crack and give Boris what he wants? I would advise you to ignore the Daily Mail and Telegraph propaganda machine. What about the UK? How will a no deal affect the UK? According to the Bank of England, your economy is already on the verge of entering recession. Listen Goldy, face facts. The UK are the desperados in all of this. Your country is facing the cliff edge, not the rest of Europe. If you think trump will be your saviour, think again. He will only do deals to the benefit of the U.S. and the detriment of everybody else. Remember, democrats in the U.S. senate have said they will block any Trump US/UK trade deal if peace in Ireland is affected in any way due to a no deal.

Wake up and smell the coffee Goldy before it's too late.

Goldy is more of a typhoo man I reckon

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

So, a no deal will affect Germany and Ireland so badly that the EU will crack and give Boris what he wants? I would advise you to ignore the Daily Mail and Telegraph propaganda machine. What about the UK? How will a no deal affect the UK? According to the Bank of England, your economy is already on the verge of entering recession. Listen Goldy, face facts. The UK are the desperados in all of this. Your country is facing the cliff edge, not the rest of Europe. If you think trump will be your saviour, think again. He will only do deals to the benefit of the U.S. and the detriment of everybody else. Remember, democrats in the U.S. senate have said they will block any Trump US/UK trade deal if peace in Ireland is affected in any way due to a no deal.

Wake up and smell the coffee Goldy before it's too late.

Well, you've set out the Remain argument succinctly, Fing, and I've just heard Anna Soubry on TV saying the same thing, and I don't envy you that company.

And yes, I've heard the democrat threat like I heard Obama telling us we'd be at the end of the queue. I doubt it would be an issue if the UK gives an undertaking NOT to put a hard border in Ireland.

We haven't got long to wait. Whatever you think of Boris, I don't think he'll fold because he can't afford to. He'd bleed votes to the Brexit Party like a fountain. But on the Germany argument, there are elected politicians looking at this, and their prospects if Germany goes into recession. Personally, I think that it will tell. But not yet. October 31 falls on a Thursday. Expect feverish negotiations and attempts to compromise the previous Saturday. That's my best prediction.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Goldy is more of a typhoo man I reckon

Just my cup of tea!

 

[finglasqpr]

Well, you've set out the Remain argument succinctly, Fing, and I've just heard Anna Soubry on TV saying the same thing, and I don't envy you that company.

And yes, I've heard the democrat threat like I heard Obama telling us we'd be at the end of the queue. I doubt it would be an issue if the UK gives an undertaking NOT to put a hard border in Ireland.

We haven't got long to wait. Whatever you think of Boris, I don't think he'll fold because he can't afford to. He'd bleed votes to the Brexit Party like a fountain. But on the Germany argument, there are elected politicians looking at this, and their prospects if Germany goes into recession. Personally, I think that it will tell. But not yet. October 31 falls on a Thursday. Expect feverish negotiations and attempts to compromise the previous Saturday. That's my best prediction.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with remain or leave. That debate finished back in 2016.

The undertaking is called the backstop, no hard border - ever. If a deal is done, the wording might be tweaked a bit here and there but the concept of the backstop will not be removed completely. That's my opinion.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

It has nothing whatsoever to do with remain or leave. That debate finished back in 2016.

The undertaking is called the backstop, no hard border - ever. If a deal is done, the wording might be tweaked a bit here and there but the concept of the backstop will not be removed completely. That's my opinion.

The problem is that could mean keeping the UK in the Customs Union forever potentially and curbing this country's rights to enter its own trade deals with other nations. That failed to get through Parliament 3 times, so I think it's dead. Technology is the solution imho

 

[QPRoma]

Look at it this way. We get 1. Brexit done so we can move on with reaching trading agreements around the world 2. Keep £37 billion at least until the next round of EU negotiations

The EU gets nothing but 1. Economic disruption that could push Germany, whose economy is presently fragile, into a recession (we are a BIG customer for Germany) 2. Real difficulties for Ireland (if you believe British media and not Fing) 3 Real prospect of pushing the UK away from European affairs and towards the US

Hahaha. And electronic devices will replace hard borders.

 

[finglasqpr]

The problem is that could mean keeping the UK in the Customs Union forever potentially and curbing this country's rights to enter its own trade deals with other nations. That failed to get through Parliament 3 times, so I think it's dead. Technology is the solution imho

There is talk that the technology required may not be available for 10 years.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

There is talk that the technology required may not be available for 10 years.

There's the EU's offer to time limit the backstop then, right there

 

[finglasqpr]

There's the EU's offer to time limit the backstop then, right there

"may" doesn't mean will. What if it is 20/30/40/50/60 years down the line? The backstop will cover all eventualities.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

"may" doesn't mean will. What if it is 20/30/40/50/60 years down the line? The backstop will cover all eventualities.

Perfect for the EU. Impossible for the UK Parliament. You can't say May didn't try

 

[finglasqpr]

Perfect for the EU. Impossible for the UK Parliament. You can't say May didn't try

Conclusion = defo no deal.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Conclusion = defo no deal.

I'd say the conclusion is that a negotiated deal is not possible, and WTO is the legal default position