Off Topic The Politics Thread

[sb_73]

This is once again positive news.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said:
"As soon as the UK is ready we will be prepared to negotiate an attractive trade deal," he told the BBC in Davos.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-front...rade-deal-says-us-treasury-secretary-11221781

Phillip Hammond told Bloomberg TV
"The UK financial services sector is larger than the rest of the Europeans unions put together so we have some negotiating weight in these discussions."

The key thing about the U.K. financial services sector is that it is actually an international financial services sector. Most of the companies involved are not British and the workforce is international and highly mobile. Apparently the big attraction of London to these international workers is the number of good private schools providing an education in English, plus the social and cultural fun that London offers. On that basis I can’t see any European city being a strong competitor in the short term, Paris the closest, and certainly not Frankfurt, unless the rules are radically changed. And I suspect that we will pay to keep them the same.

But it does amuse me to see the Brexiters bigging up this (international, migrant run) beacon of privilege sector one minute and slagging off the ‘elite establishment’ the next. The heart of the Brexit contradiction - I think the majority of those who voted for it were hardly concerned about the wellbeing of a group of extremely well off British and foreign bankers, hedge fund managers, investment brokers etc most of whom will have voted remain, they wanted a world where the interests of ordinary British people were given more attention. But many of the political leaders of Brexit - definitely Johnson, Fox, Gove, perhaps not Farage - are neo liberals economically who want deregulation and a sink or swim survival of the fittest global economy, regard limits to immigration as a threat to our ability to thrive in this sort of world and dislike the EU precisely because it attempts to regulate and protect (not always very well of course). Corbyn and his ilk dislike the EU because despite trying to knock some of the hard edges off capitalism it is a resolutely capitalist enterprise, and it’s rules would prevent them doing lots of socialist things. UKIP probably did represent the views of the average Brexit voters most accurately, and now they are dead in the water, despite there being an obvious role for someone other than Jake Rees Mogg to hold Davies and May to account.

As the result will probably be a fudged soft Brexit I shouldn’t complain too much.

 

[ELLERS]

The key thing about the U.K. financial services sector is that it is actually an international financial services sector. Most of the companies involved are not British and the workforce is international and highly mobile. Apparently the big attraction of London to these international workers is the number of good private schools providing an education in English, plus the social and cultural fun that London offers. On that basis I can’t see any European city being a strong competitor in the short term, Paris the closest, and certainly not Frankfurt, unless the rules are radically changed. And I suspect that we will pay to keep them the same.

But it does amuse me to see the Brexiters bigging up this (international, migrant run) beacon of privilege sector one minute and slagging off the ‘elite establishment’ the next. The heart of the Brexit contradiction - I think the majority of those who voted for it were hardly concerned about the wellbeing of a group of extremely well off British and foreign bankers, hedge fund managers, investment brokers etc most of whom will have voted remain, they wanted a world where the interests of ordinary British people were given more attention. But many of the political leaders of Brexit - definitely Johnson, Fox, Gove, perhaps not Farage - are neo liberals economically who want deregulation and a sink or swim survival of the fittest global economy, regard limits to immigration as a threat to our ability to thrive in this sort of world and dislike the EU precisely because it attempts to regulate and protect (not always very well of course). Corbyn and his ilk dislike the EU because despite trying to knock some of the hard edges off capitalism it is a resolutely capitalist enterprise, and it’s rules would prevent them doing lots of socialist things. UKIP probably did represent the views of the average Brexit voters most accurately, and now they are dead in the water, despite there being an obvious role for someone other than Jake Rees Mogg to hold Davies and May to account.

As the result will probably be a fudged soft Brexit I shouldn’t complain too much.

And there was I and all the media outlets including the BBC saying it was a positive thing yet you don't think so as much...oh well.

 

[ELLERS]

No matter how anyone tries to sell it this doom and gloom (project fear), the world would cave in on the UK blah blah blah hasn't happened.
. Employment is at a record high.
. The pound is bouncing back and is now on a post-Brexit High $1.42 and against the Euro.
. Investment in UK is also a record
. DAVID Cameron has been caught on a microphone at Davos admitting that Brexit has “turned out not as badly as we thought”.
. More importantly, my mate managed to pull a nice Polish girl so relations with the EU aren't as bad as they said.

 

[sb_73]

And there was I and all the media outlets including the BBC saying it was a positive thing yet you don't think so as much...oh well.

On financial services if things stay as they are its a positive thing for me Ellers, because it means little or no change and continued contribution through tax, if they pay any, to the U.K. Trade deal with the US, also good, but we would probably get a better deal negotiating as part of the EU, and if Trump is still around when it happens their ‘America First’ objective will be to balance out their trade deficit with us (I.e. we import more from them than now) hopefully in the context of higher overall trade between us. Doesn’t matter if increased imports from them are offset by lower imports from elsewhere.

I take it you agree with the main point of my post, about the contradictions within the Brexit position?

 

[ELLERS]

On financial services if things stay as they are its a positive thing for me Ellers, because it means little or no change and continued contribution through tax, if they pay any, to the U.K. Trade deal with the US, also good, but we would probably get a better deal negotiating as part of the EU, and if Trump is still around when it happens their ‘America First’ objective will be to balance out their trade deficit with us (I.e. we import more from them than now) hopefully in the context of higher overall trade between us. Doesn’t matter if increased imports from them are offset by lower imports from elsewhere.

I take it you agree with the main point of my post, about the contradictions within the Brexit position?

Although I am not that stupid....still a lot of stuff to agree re-trade and sadly I think David Davis seems to be getting weaker by the day.
Something that was said today which I totally agree with is it has been 18months now and still we don't know what is going to happen with certain things. A bit slack tbh.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

The key thing about the U.K. financial services sector is that it is actually an international financial services sector. Most of the companies involved are not British and the workforce is international and highly mobile. Apparently the big attraction of London to these international workers is the number of good private schools providing an education in English, plus the social and cultural fun that London offers. On that basis I can’t see any European city being a strong competitor in the short term, Paris the closest, and certainly not Frankfurt, unless the rules are radically changed. And I suspect that we will pay to keep them the same.

But it does amuse me to see the Brexiters bigging up this (international, migrant run) beacon of privilege sector one minute and slagging off the ‘elite establishment’ the next. The heart of the Brexit contradiction - I think the majority of those who voted for it were hardly concerned about the wellbeing of a group of extremely well off British and foreign bankers, hedge fund managers, investment brokers etc most of whom will have voted remain, they wanted a world where the interests of ordinary British people were given more attention. But many of the political leaders of Brexit - definitely Johnson, Fox, Gove, perhaps not Farage - are neo liberals economically who want deregulation and a sink or swim survival of the fittest global economy, regard limits to immigration as a threat to our ability to thrive in this sort of world and dislike the EU precisely because it attempts to regulate and protect (not always very well of course). Corbyn and his ilk dislike the EU because despite trying to knock some of the hard edges off capitalism it is a resolutely capitalist enterprise, and it’s rules would prevent them doing lots of socialist things. UKIP probably did represent the views of the average Brexit voters most accurately, and now they are dead in the water, despite there being an obvious role for someone other than Jake Rees Mogg to hold Davies and May to account.

As the result will probably be a fudged soft Brexit I shouldn’t complain too much.

Yes, 100% on London being a unique attraction for wealthy professionals - there's nowhere like it in the world with its rich history and culture. I've been banging on about this for 18 months. No successful banker will trade London with Frankfurt, unless he's on a wanted list for tax fraud and wants to find a God-forsaken backwater to lie low in. A few junior staff may be sent out to open an EU branch office on the promise of a fixed term secondment and promotion on return to London. Paris is a lovely place to have a shag with the mistress on a dirty weekend but it doesn't have the infrastructure of lawyers, accountants, stockbrokers, insurance companies and brokers (esp Lloyds) etc needed to be a viable alternative to London. And Americans are generally lazy linguists (like the Brits), I can't see all the staff at JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs going off to learn French at night school.

Sure, Brexit will be a fudge, but it depends on the definition of "soft". After the transition, we'll be out of the single market and customs union. There may be some parallels devised, with some payment but nothing like the $8bn net we're paying the EU at the moment. The ECJ may be accommodated in narrow ways re EU nationals in the UK. We'll be unfettered in looking for international trade deals. - and all these arrangements will be up for renegotiation in 5-10 years time when the UK is trading strongly with the rest of the word, bearing in mind that the EU's slice of the global economy is declining. Our trade with non-EU countries is already increasing, and decreasing with EU countries.

 

[sb_73]

Yes, 100% on London being a unique attraction for wealthy professionals - there's nowhere like it in the world with its rich history and culture. I've been banging on about this for 18 months. No successful banker will trade London with Frankfurt, unless he's on a wanted list for tax fraud and wants to find a God-forsaken backwater to lie low in. A few junior staff may be sent out to open an EU branch office on the promise of a fixed term secondment and promotion on return to London.

Sure, Brexit will be a fudge, but it depends on the definition of "soft". After the transition, we'll be out of the single market and customs union. There may be some parallels devised, with some payment but nothing like the $8bn net we're paying the EU at the moment. The ECJ may be accommodated in narrow ways re EU nationals in the UK. We'll be unfettered in looking for international trade deals. - and all this will be up for renegotiation in 5-10 years time when the UK is trading strongly with the rest of the word, bearing in mind that the EU's slice of the global economy is declining. Our trade with non-EU countries is already increasing, and decreasing with EU countries.

What you are describing is a soft Brexit, not ‘leave means leave’. Decent outcome in the circumstances from my perspective, and lots can change going forward. I just wonder how happy many Brexit voters are going to be when they discover that de facto we remain in the EU until at least after the transition period, 2021, and possibly permanently depending on the nature of the final trade agreement.

The only way Paris, Frankfurt etc could get ahead of London is if the rules change to the extent that the international financiers put their profit ahead of their location preferences. And as I say, I think we will pay somehow to stop that happening.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

What you are describing is a soft Brexit, not ‘leave means leave’. Decent outcome in the circumstances from my perspective, and lots can change going forward. I just wonder how happy many Brexit voters are going to be when they discover that de facto we remain in the EU until at least after the transition period, 2021, and possibly permanently depending on the nature of the final trade agreement.

The only way Paris, Frankfurt etc could get ahead of London is if the rules change to the extent that the international financiers put their profit ahead of their location preferences. And as I say, I think we will pay somehow to stop that happening.

For me, soft Brexit involved staying in the single market or customs union and being bound by the 4 pillars. That can't happen, but other stuff is negotiable, particularly as I think year on year, we'll become more independent of the EU because trade will matter less to us year by year.

I don't think the profits motive is a factor to be honest. The bankers can have their cake and eat it. They can stay in London and have branch offices across the EU. Of course, the "leave means leave" option may be back on the table if the EU refuse to agree to financial passporting for UK banks etc. They'll threaten that during negotiations but when it comes to it, they know they'll lose £37 bn ++ if we leave without a deal, and I don't see the EU risking that because they have an imminent funding problem as a result of Brexit.

 

[durbar2003]

The key thing about the U.K. financial services sector is that it is actually an international financial services sector. Most of the companies involved are not British and the workforce is international and highly mobile. Apparently the big attraction of London to these international workers is the number of good private schools providing an education in English, plus the social and cultural fun that London offers. On that basis I can’t see any European city being a strong competitor in the short term, Paris the closest, and certainly not Frankfurt, unless the rules are radically changed. And I suspect that we will pay to keep them the same.

But it does amuse me to see the Brexiters bigging up this (international, migrant run) beacon of privilege sector one minute and slagging off the ‘elite establishment’ the next. The heart of the Brexit contradiction - I think the majority of those who voted for it were hardly concerned about the wellbeing of a group of extremely well off British and foreign bankers, hedge fund managers, investment brokers etc most of whom will have voted remain, they wanted a world where the interests of ordinary British people were given more attention. But many of the political leaders of Brexit - definitely Johnson, Fox, Gove, perhaps not Farage - are neo liberals economically who want deregulation and a sink or swim survival of the fittest global economy, regard limits to immigration as a threat to our ability to thrive in this sort of world and dislike the EU precisely because it attempts to regulate and protect (not always very well of course). Corbyn and his ilk dislike the EU because despite trying to knock some of the hard edges off capitalism it is a resolutely capitalist enterprise, and it’s rules would prevent them doing lots of socialist things. UKIP probably did represent the views of the average Brexit voters most accurately, and now they are dead in the water, despite there being an obvious role for someone other than Jake Rees Mogg to hold Davies and May to account.

As the result will probably be a fudged soft Brexit I shouldn’t complain too much.

Actually Frankfurt is the strongest competitor to London at the moment.

 

[sb_73]

Actually Frankfurt is the strongest competitor to London at the moment.

Not as a place to live. Pleasant but stunningly dull, and very few famous private schools which teach in English

 

[durbar2003]

Not as a place to live. Pleasant but stunningly dull, and very few famous private schools which teach in English

Dont disagree with that but I'm talking about from the financial services point of view.

 

[Stroller]

[

For me, soft Brexit involved staying in the single market or customs union and being bound by the 4 pillars. That can't happen, but other stuff is negotiable, particularly as I think year on year, we'll become more independent of the EU because trade will matter less to us year by year.

I don't think the profits motive is a factor to be honest. The bankers can have their cake and eat it. They can stay in London and have branch offices across the EU. Of course, the "leave means leave" option may be back on the table if the EU refuse to agree to financial passporting for UK banks etc. They'll threaten that during negotiations but when it comes to it, they know they'll lose £37 bn ++ if we leave without a deal, and I don't see the EU risking that because they have an imminent funding problem as a result of Brexit.

The £37bn isn't contingent upon a trade deal though, is it?

 

[sb_73]

No matter how anyone tries to sell it this doom and gloom (project fear), the world would cave in on the UK blah blah blah hasn't happened.
. Employment is at a record high.
. The pound is bouncing back and is now on a post-Brexit High $1.42 and against the Euro.
. Investment in UK is also a record
. DAVID Cameron has been caught on a microphone at Davos admitting that Brexit has “turned out not as badly as we thought”.
. More importantly, my mate managed to pull a nice Polish girl so relations with the EU aren't as bad as they said.

Great isn’t it?
Here’s some other stats:
Rough sleeping rises by 15% in a year
Over a million people using food banks compared to 41,000 in 2010
Violent crime rising while police numbers fall
And
JPMorgan could cut more than 4,000 UK jobs post-Brexit, according to the firm’s CEO. Jamie Dimon told the BBC that, if Brexit talks result in the UK having different financial rules to the EU, the American bank could be forced to move more than a quarter of its UK jobs to another EU location. The bank is already expanding its operations in other European cities, having agreed last May to buy a building in Dublin with room for around 1,000 staff, and announcing in November plans to hire 60 new employees in Paris.

Seven in 10 UK workers are 'chronically broke'. Around 30% of respondents to a study by the Royal Society of Arts said they’re living comfortably, but 40% said their finances are permanently precarious and 30% said they’re simply not managing to get by. The think tank asked some questions around employment, too, and found that just 44% feel they’ve progressed in their careers in the last five years and only 40% feel they have a chance to progress in the future.

Mortgage approvals have fallen to their lowest levels in almost five years. British lenders approved 36,115 mortgages in December, down 19% on the previous year, data from trade body UK Finance shows. The fall has been blamed on a number of factors, including the Bank of England's decision to raise base rates to 0.5% in November. Falling real-terms wages are also putting pressure on people’s finances, with pay growth failing to keep pace with increasing inflation.

Let’s hope your mate doesn’t get his Polish friend in the club so she won’t clog up the British NHS!

Seriously, we can swap this **** forever and I don’t think we will be any nearer the truth. I seriously doubt whether we will be able to attribute all good or bad stuff to Brexit. It’s great that people have jobs, if they are decent jobs, and it’s probably good that the £ is strengthening as the markets believe we will get a reasonable deal with the EU (i.e very soft Brexit) and the US government can’t agree to pay its workers.

 

[kiwiqpr]

Not as a place to live. Pleasant but stunningly dull, and very few famous private schools which teach in English

We should get in early and open the not606 qpr forum school of English
There is enough self appointed experts on here to run it
We could run it in conjunction with the qpr forum polling organization
I propose as first headmistress the lovely stacey

 

[kiwiqpr]

A study by the royal society of arts

 

[ELLERS]

Great isn’t it?
Here’s some other stats:
Rough sleeping rises by 15% in a year
Over a million people using food banks compared to 41,000 in 2010
Violent crime rising while police numbers fall
And
JPMorgan could cut more than 4,000 UK jobs post-Brexit, according to the firm’s CEO. Jamie Dimon told the BBC that, if Brexit talks result in the UK having different financial rules to the EU, the American bank could be forced to move more than a quarter of its UK jobs to another EU location. The bank is already expanding its operations in other European cities, having agreed last May to buy a building in Dublin with room for around 1,000 staff, and announcing in November plans to hire 60 new employees in Paris.

Seven in 10 UK workers are 'chronically broke'. Around 30% of respondents to a study by the Royal Society of Arts said they’re living comfortably, but 40% said their finances are permanently precarious and 30% said they’re simply not managing to get by. The think tank asked some questions around employment, too, and found that just 44% feel they’ve progressed in their careers in the last five years and only 40% feel they have a chance to progress in the future.

Mortgage approvals have fallen to their lowest levels in almost five years. British lenders approved 36,115 mortgages in December, down 19% on the previous year, data from trade body UK Finance shows. The fall has been blamed on a number of factors, including the Bank of England's decision to raise base rates to 0.5% in November. Falling real-terms wages are also putting pressure on people’s finances, with pay growth failing to keep pace with increasing inflation.

Let’s hope your mate doesn’t get his Polish friend in the club so she won’t clog up the British NHS!

Seriously, we can swap this **** forever and I don’t think we will be any nearer the truth. I seriously doubt whether we will be able to attribute all good or bad stuff to Brexit. It’s great that people have jobs, if they are decent jobs, and it’s probably good that the £ is strengthening as the markets believe we will get a reasonable deal with the EU (i.e very soft Brexit) and the US government can’t agree to pay its workers.

So Homeless due to Brexit?
So food banks down to Brexit?
Mortgages down to Brexit?
You might as well say QPR's bad form is down to Brexit?

You really sound like a 'remoaner'. No matter what facts we post you always look at negatives. you need to cheer up mate.

 

[sb_73]

So Homeless due to Brexit?
So food banks down to Brexit?
Mortgages down to Brexit?
You might as well say QPR's bad form is down to Brexit?

You really sound like a 'remoaner'. No matter what facts we post you always look at negatives. you need to cheer up mate.

Did you not read the last paragraph? Don’t like facts which seem to contradict your facts? How very Faragist. Two sides to every story.

Do you not find it odd that with record employment levels, which you seem to think is due to rather than despite Brexit, we have record poverty? Isn’t Brexit meant to make things better for everybody?

Do you really think that employment is high and the £ strengthening because of Brexit, rather than despite it? It’s happening because people think it won’t be as bad as it could be, we’re heading towards a Brexit where we leave the EU in name only.

Which makes me relatively cheerful.

You need to stop deluding yourself mate. Or not, continue if it makes you happy.

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

So Homeless due to Brexit?
So food banks down to Brexit?
Mortgages down to Brexit?
You might as well say QPR's bad form is down to Brexit?

You really sound like a 'remoaner'. No matter what facts we post you always look at negatives. you need to cheer up mate.

I think the above are not down to Brexit at all but a breakdown of English society to new levels. The same as the English culture looks to blame anyone else for its own failings for example immigration.

We are all moaners in fact it’s programmed imo. However how we get back from this without big business who as I have said are way ahead with their options will be the test.

None of us little people will be able to influence this but we do have a market that most will target. We are after all the most deluded consumers after the U.S

Because we are divided this will of course take a massive shift in culture to unite a nation. I can’t see many not agreeing with that?. I doubt if any of us of our generation will see and feel the full effects of any wonderful and it could be the hope that ruins it all.

Looking at myself I am guilty 100% for doing my own thing that is best for my kin because I choose not to believe in the current system or direction. Politics for me has to change And hopefully it will for everyone

 

[Stroller]

I think the above are not down to Brexit at all but a breakdown of English society to new levels. The same as the English culture looks to blame anyone else for its own failings for example immigration.

We are all moaners in fact it’s programmed imo. However how we get back from this without big business who as I have said are way ahead with their options will be the test.

None of us little people will be able to influence this but we do have a market that most will target. We are after all the most deluded consumers after the U.S

Because we are divided this will of course take a massive shift in culture to unite a nation. I can’t see many not agreeing with that?. I doubt if any of us of our generation will see and feel the full effects of any wonderful and it could be the hope that ruins it all.

Looking at myself I am guilty 100% for doing my own thing that is best for my kin because I choose not to believe in the current system or direction. Politics for me has to change And hopefully it will for everyone

Hope you haven't got caught up in the Nutella riots, mate. Stay safe.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

[

The £37bn isn't contingent upon a trade deal though, is it?

My understanding it is, on the "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" basis. If there's no deal, there's no money sent. The EU will have to prove its case for money owed, possibly before an international arbitrator. The UK would put in a claim for set-off for its share of EU assets purchased during its membership. It would take years to sort out and meanwhile, there's an annual £8-10bn hole in the EU budget.