Off Topic The Politics Thread

[sb_73]

Interestingly the latest survey (by the LSE) found that 2/3rds of voters favour a clean Brexit. Make of that what you, it might be a no-deal scenario but I suspect pressure will be put on recalcitrants within the EU to agree whatever Germany and France proposes.

It seems the majority will be disappointed, yet again. David Davies, sounding more like a witless fool every time he opens his mouth ('It's all going swimmingly well!') announces that the UK wants a transitional period of up to 3 years where we stay in the Customs Union, which means no trade agreements with other countries until at least 2022. We want it because it avoids the 'cliff edge' and encourages companies thinking of relocating to the EU to stay here. As far as I can see it just pushes the cliff edge back.

Of course, getting this is dependent on the EU agreeing to it when their interest is attracting firms from the U.K. to move to Europe.........and they won't agree to anything until the citizenship and divorce bill are agreed, as they have made very clear. The negotiating tactic of not saying what you want could never be sustained, and at the first attempt Davies has strengthened Barnier's hand. Bravo!

Elsewhere, the European Investment Fund, which has put £28bn into British technology start ups since 2011 (three times more than either France or Germany have received), and is the largest single source of funding for these ventures, is no longer giving cash to the UK. May has said that the UK government will fill the gap, presumably by taking money from the NHS or policing.

 

[Stroller]

It seems the majority will be disappointed, yet again. David Davies, sounding more like a witless fool every time he opens his mouth ('It's all going swimmingly well!') announces that the UK wants a transitional period of up to 3 years where we stay in the Customs Union, which means no trade agreements with other countries until at least 2022. We want it because it avoids the 'cliff edge' and encourages companies thinking of relocating to the EU to stay here. As far as I can see it just pushes the cliff edge back.

Of course, getting this is dependent on the EU agreeing to it when their interest is attracting firms from the U.K. to move to Europe.........and they won't agree to anything until the citizenship and divorce bill are agreed, as they have made very clear. The negotiating tactic of not saying what you want could never be sustained, and at the first attempt Davies has strengthened Barnier's hand. Bravo!

Elsewhere, the European Investment Fund, which has put £28bn into British technology start ups since 2011 (three times more than either France or Germany have received), and is the largest single source of funding for these ventures, is no longer giving cash to the UK. May has said that the UK government will fill the gap, presumably by taking money from the NHS or policing.

Just heard some Labour bloke (Bill Esterson?) on the wireless claiming that his party have been 'very clear' on their position regarding the Customs Union and Single Market. He didn't seem to be able to say what it was, though. He claimed that, under Labour, we would have the 'same relationship' after Brexit as we do now, without being able to say if that was for a transitional period, by not leaving at all, or in a cake-eating scenario. It's all very well Labour sitting back sniggering as the Tories **** it up, but it's more important than that. I hope the party conference forces Corbyn into a firm position.

 

[sb_73]

More pie in the sky, have our cake and eat it, we want to be in the EU and out of it at the same time bullshit in the Irish border position paper, all wishes no practicalities.

This is embarrassing. Our position so far: we want all the trade and economic benefits of being in the EU, without paying for it, without allowing people to move to this country, without accepting the legal oversight that it entails, and while trading under different rules with the rest of the world. We think the EU will accept this, and undermine its own basis, because trade is important to it - they won't risk losing the 8% of their exports which come to the U.K. (44% of our exports go to the EU).

According to some the people who voted for Brexit were prepared to suffer the economic consequences in order to 'take back control' and get rid of immigrants. The rest of us who didn't vote for it have been told that we don't matter because the majority rules. So why don't these incompetent cowards simply get on with it and let the suffering begin? We are a laughing stock, but it's a grim, mirthless laugh.

 

[Uber_Hoop]

More pie in the sky, have our cake and eat it, we want to be in the EU and out of it at the same time bullshit in the Irish border position paper, all wishes no practicalities.

This is embarrassing. Our position so far: we want all the trade and economic benefits of being in the EU, without paying for it, without allowing people to move to this country, without accepting the legal oversight that it entails, and while trading under different rules with the rest of the world. We think the EU will accept this, and undermine its own basis, because trade is important to it - they won't risk losing the 8% of their exports which come to the U.K. (44% of our exports go to the EU).

According to some the people who voted for Brexit were prepared to suffer the economic consequences in order to 'take back control' and get rid of immigrants. The rest of us who didn't vote for it have been told that we don't matter because the majority rules. So why don't these incompetent cowards simply get on with it and let the suffering begin? We are a laughing stock, but it's a grim, mirthless laugh.

I couldn't agree with you more, Stan. I don't blame the government for their chutzpah in trying the 'have your cake and eating it' approach to negotiations, but there comes a point (some way back in the rear view mirror now) where enough is enough. It's pretty obvious to most, I would have thought, that the only real Brexit, certainly where it comes to trading arrangements, is a hard Brexit, after which we then develop more practical and specific deals thereafter. There's little point in trying to determine the landscape like it makes any difference to the original referendum outcome.

On a slightly different subject...

I've been reading "The Knife Went In" by Theodore Dalrymple whilst on leave in which he covers his experiences with inmates whilst a prison doctor. I would recommend it to anybody. Whilst I'm sure some will not be able to get past what they'll see as his right-of-centre bias - which, incidentally, I instead see as opinions formed from this experience, asking questions and the evidence before his very eyes - I'd love it (really luv it, as Keegan might say) if Brexit also meant being able to re-examine much of the nonsense, discrimination and downright injustice arising from the application of the criminal justice system today.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

I could see a schism developing in the EU over Brexit beyond the 27 states wanting differing things - to bureaucrats v exporting businesses. At the moment, the exporting businesses on the Continent are placing their trust in the EU politicians and bureaucrats to come up with a workable solution to Brexit that won't damage their trading prospects with the UK. If the UK's efforts to avoid customs tariffs between the EU and the UK are seen as reasonable by Continental business, then the pressure will be on purists and professional politicians like Guy Verhofstadt who have never had to trade anything in their lives.

 

[sb_73]

I couldn't agree with you more, Stan. I don't blame the government for their chutzpah in trying the 'have your cake and eating it' approach to negotiations, but there comes a point (some way back in the rear view mirror now) where enough is enough. It's pretty obvious to most, I would have thought, that the only real Brexit, certainly where it comes to trading arrangements, is a hard Brexit, after which we then develop more practical and specific deals thereafter. There's little point in trying to determine the landscape like it makes any difference to the original referendum outcome.

On a slightly different subject...

I've been reading "The Knife Went In" by Theodore Dalrymple whilst on leave in which he covers his experiences with inmates whilst a prison doctor. I would recommend it to anybody. Whilst I'm sure some will not be able to get past what they'll see as his right-of-centre bias - which, incidentally, I instead see as opinions formed from this experience, asking questions and the evidence before his very eyes - I'd love it (really luv it, as Keegan might say) if Brexit also meant being able to re-examine much of the nonsense, discrimination and downright injustice arising from the application of the criminal justice system today.

I think I'm going to have to grit my teeth and read some of Mr Dalrymple's oeuvre, he seems like an interesting bloke. Just a scan of his Wiki entry has me agreeing with about half of his ideas ( the redundancy of moral relativism foremost amongst these) and thinking 'beg pardon?' to the rest. Don't see why Brexit would enable us to turn the clock back to some imaginary time when our culture was built on self-restraint, modesty, zeal, humility, irony, detachment - his benchmarks of civilised behaviour which I wholly endorse. Fact is there has always been an underclass, we just notice it more now and waste our time trying to do something about it.

Davies' ex chief of staff savaging him as a drunk, lazy bully today.

 

[Uber_Hoop]

I think I'm going to have to grit my teeth and read some of Mr Dalrymple's oeuvre, he seems like an interesting bloke. Just a scan of his Wiki entry has me agreeing with about half of his ideas ( the redundancy of moral relativism foremost amongst these) and thinking 'beg pardon?' to the rest. Don't see why Brexit would enable us to turn the clock back to some imaginary time when our culture was built on self-restraint, modesty, zeal, humility, irony, detachment - his benchmarks of civilised behaviour which I wholly endorse. Fact is there has always been an underclass, we just notice it more now and waste our time trying to do something about it.

Davies' ex chief of staff savaging him as a drunk, lazy bully today.

If Brexit frees us of the encumbrance of the ECHR and associated acts & provisions and assorted ****e then, in my naive and make believe British Utopia, there's an opportunity to overhaul the British justice system without interference from left-wing European bureaucrats etc.

You're an intelligent man, Stanners, so you'd like Dalrymple. He uses big words and Latin and stuff.

 

[Stroller]

If Brexit frees us of the encumbrance of the ECHR and associated acts & provisions and assorted ****e then, in my naive and make believe British Utopia, there's an opportunity to overhaul the British justice system without interference from left-wing European bureaucrats etc.

You're an intelligent man, Stanners, so you'd like Dalrymple. He uses big words and Latin and stuff.

So does Boris Johnson but he's just a devious, lying ****.

 

[Uber_Hoop]

Some does Boris Johnson but he's just a devious, lying ****.

You'll not get an argument from me on that one, Strolls. I've never fallen for the loveable, clumsy, foppish Boris lie.

 

[sb_73]

If Brexit frees us of the encumbrance of the ECHR and associated acts & provisions and assorted ****e then, in my naive and make believe British Utopia, there's an opportunity to overhaul the British justice system without interference from left-wing European bureaucrats etc.

You're an intelligent man, Stanners, so you'd like Dalrymple. He uses big words and Latin and stuff.

Brexit won't free us from the ECHR, May has signed up to it for at least the lifetime of this Parliament. I tend to think that the law follows cultural/societal trends rather than the other way round anyway. Perhaps those trends are changing, though there is a good chance that the next government will be more left wing than the current one.

 

[Uber_Hoop]

Brexit won't free us from the ECHR, May has signed up to it for at least the lifetime of this Parliament. I tend to think that the law follows cultural/societal trends rather than the other way round anyway. Perhaps those trends are changing, though there is a good chance that the next government will be more left wing than the current one.

Whether it's the ECHR, Airfix Modeller's Club or the Dagenham Girl Pipers, there needs to be change in the way we deal with crime in this country and those charged with perpetrating crime. The book is fascinating (and no, I'm not guilty of ever having read one book).

 

[sb_73]

Visa free travel and stay as long as you want for EU citizens after Brexit, planned by Home Office. Permits, paid for by business, if you want to work. Fine by me, as long as the EU reciprocates on visa free travel, but we know that we don't have the capacity to track any one after they have arrived, so plenty of black market labour still available. Does mean the Irish border won't be a 'back door' to the UK though, because the front door will be open.

Is this what you voted for, Brexiters?

 

[sb_73]

I could see a schism developing in the EU over Brexit beyond the 27 states wanting differing things - to bureaucrats v exporting businesses. At the moment, the exporting businesses on the Continent are placing their trust in the EU politicians and bureaucrats to come up with a workable solution to Brexit that won't damage their trading prospects with the UK. If the UK's efforts to avoid customs tariffs between the EU and the UK are seen as reasonable by Continental business, then the pressure will be on purists and professional politicians like Guy Verhofstadt who have never had to trade anything in their lives.

This is a political as well as an economic issue Goldie, as amply demonstrated by the referendum result, where 52% voted against their short/medium and probably long term economic interests (perhaps knowingly, perhaps unknowingly) in order to get political stuff like reduced immigration.

The EU may well take a similar line - to retain the political integrity of the Union, we will make economic sacrifices (which we have been prepared for since the referendum). If recent politics teaches us anything, it's that rationality cannot be relied upon. And anyway, it's not that irrational to come out with a deal that makes plain that it's much better to be in the EU than out of it.

 

[Stroller]

Visa free travel and stay as long as you want for EU citizens after Brexit, planned by Home Office. Permits, paid for by business, if you want to work. Fine by me, as long as the EU reciprocates on visa free travel, but we know that we don't have the capacity to track any one after they have arrived, so plenty of black market labour still available. Does mean the Irish border won't be a 'back door' to the UK though, because the front door will be open.

Is this what you voted for, Brexiters?

This is puzzling enough, but there would still need to be Irish border checks for goods, wouldn't there? Goods could be imported from other parts of the world into Belfast, then transported southwards to the Republic and thence to the EU tariff-free. Or am I missing something?

 

[West London Willy]

This is puzzling enough, but there would still need to be Irish border checks for goods, wouldn't there? Goods could be imported from other parts of the world into Belfast, then transported southwards to the Republic and thence to the EU tariff-free. Or am I missing something?

No, you're not missing anything. Same as people can travel to Dublin, catch a train to Belfast, and at that point they are in the UK. The Irish border is probably the most difficult thing to get right in this whole compost heap of negotiations.

Basically, unless there's a closed border between Northern ireland and the Republic, the practical upshot of leaving the EU is negated. Trade tariffs, immigration, all meaningless because we'd have a 310 mile side door...

 

[sb_73]

This is puzzling enough, but there would still need to be Irish border checks for goods, wouldn't there? Goods could be imported from other parts of the world into Belfast, then transported southwards to the Republic and thence to the EU tariff-free. Or am I missing something?

Apparently not, according to the paper published yesterday 'small and medium' sized businesses exempt from any paperwork and big ones to declare what they are bringing over the border online.

It's a fantasy, a carefully constructed one to make the EU look like the obstructive party - clearly this system won't work, and it will seem to be the EU which blocks it.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

This is a political as well as an economic issue Goldie, as amply demonstrated by the referendum result, where 52% voted against their short/medium and probably long term economic interests (perhaps knowingly, perhaps unknowingly) in order to get political stuff like reduced immigration.

The EU may well take a similar line - to retain the political integrity of the Union, we will make economic sacrifices (which we have been prepared for since the referendum). If recent politics teaches us anything, it's that rationality cannot be relied upon. And anyway, it's not that irrational to come out with a deal that makes plain that it's much better to be in the EU than out of it.

Sure, Stan, and I've heard all the arguments that EU businesses will will willingly forgo profits to maintain the purity of the Union etc. But if the UK are offering something reasonable for everyone to avoid tariffs, trade delays etc and the EU bureaucrats say Nein, I could see some serious intra-EU arguments. At the least, the bureaucrats will be under pressure from their own people.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Visa free travel and stay as long as you want for EU citizens after Brexit, planned by Home Office. Permits, paid for by business, if you want to work. Fine by me, as long as the EU reciprocates on visa free travel, but we know that we don't have the capacity to track any one after they have arrived, so plenty of black market labour still available. Does mean the Irish border won't be a 'back door' to the UK though, because the front door will be open.

Is this what you voted for, Brexiters?

So far as Ireland is concerned, since it's not part of Schengen, and has its own interests in, and historic experience of, maintaining security and keeping out criminals and terrorists inwards from the EU, it seems the UK can rely on Ireland as gatekeeper with the same cooperation as there is now under the Common Travel Area, so the UK knows which EU nationals have come into Ireland and that they have had criminal vetting checks etc. Those EU nationals that come into the UK through Ireland would be entitled to do so anyway without visa, so long as they don't work or study here without a permit (and aren't a security risk). There is an issue of smuggling from the North to the South as Stroller has referred to. Needs to be resolved presumably by customs policing of the sources of goods being sold or exported from the R of I.

Visa free travel of EU nationals in the UK (if reciprocal) - No problem so long as enforcement is in place. Employers should have strict liability not to employ anyone without a permit with large fines for punishment. Personally, I favour high-tech identity cards. If a German pensioner couple want to retire to Plymouth, I don't see a problem if they get a permit, so long as they don't rely on benefits. The reciprocal healthcare arrangements could be maintained. What Brexit is stopping is unemployed immigrants seeking benefits, uncontrolled amounts of cheap unskilled labour or skilled labour that this country does not need.

 

[sb_73]

Sure, Stan, and I've heard all the arguments that EU businesses will will willingly forgo profits to maintain the purity of the Union etc. But if the UK are offering something reasonable for everyone to avoid tariffs, trade delays etc and the EU bureaucrats say Nein, I could see some serious intra-EU arguments. At the least, the bureaucrats will be under pressure from their own people.

The desires of British businesses aren't stopping us leaving the EU, I notice......

I think there can be a tariff free trade deal for goods at least (not so sure about services) if we are prepared to pay for it and accept the EU regulations going forward.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

The desires of British businesses aren't stopping us leaving the EU, I notice......

I think there can be a tariff free trade deal for goods at least (not so sure about services) if we are prepared to pay for it and accept the EU regulations going forward.

British businesses accept a democratic vote.

The UK will presumably sell goods into the EU market on the same regulatory basis as other non- EU countries like the US and Canada. If I was the UK government, I would not accept a piecemeal deal. There may be some specialised services that need a tailored approach, but otherwise I see no reason why there should be a distinction between services and goods. After all, the EU want our money to make up a hole in their budget, which almost certainly goes beyond the UK's legal obligations

Terrorist incidents ongoing in Barcelona as I write. Tragedy for some families. How long can Spain keep accepting boatloads of illegal immigrants, of unknown origin and intention, I wonder?