Off Topic The Politics Thread

[ELLERS]

A few years ago, well more than a few, I received £1 for $1.05. For me they were the good old days as my US salary was calculated at $2.30/£1.00.

bloody hell time flies! it was 2008-2009! but it did drop sometime after that as well. You get my point though

 

[QPR Oslo]

About 4 years ago I got €1 to £1 (give or take a few pence) We were in the EU then. The pound will always go up and down. That was said from the Bank of England guy.

Yes it will no doubt go up again a little too. But when you follow the exchange rate moves daily, it is crystal clear that the main driver of several severe falls in the value of the £ the last year is news about the UK leaving the EU (particlarly the biggest drop when the vote''s result was known) and since then news indicating that the UK will be leaving the single market. On days when there has been no news on this subject, and when some decent UK economic data is published, the £ recovers a little, goes up a little more at more decent economic news, or when the Court decided parliament should vote on Brexit, but then plumets again when for instance May was imtervewed last Sunday. I doubt the £ will recover to about where it was before the referendum until the day ( if it happens) that it becomes clear the UK will stay in the single market.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Trade agreements consist of agreement on tariff levels on the goods/services involved (which should be easy), the standards which the goods/services need to meet (more complex, where these differ between the two parties), and the regulation/customs processes surrounding buying and selling stuff. With the EU at present we have zero tariffs, harmonised standards and a customs union. The EU agreements also govern the quality of what is imported from outside the EU and the tariffs (only 3% for the US goods - virtually no food because of GM - at present). Presumably we will want something similar with all of our future trading parties. On the Standards stuff, which is very important for us consumers, it will be very complicated. Or we could just adopt EU standards as ours, which would make things easier, but still exclude certain products/services from certain countries.

One thing which (probably to your surprise) I think we should do is politely tell the EU to **** off with its 'you are not allowed to formally negotiate bilateral trade agreements while you are still in the EU' line. This is an unprecedented situation, no country has left the EU in this way before, as soon as we invoke Article 50 we will be going and we have the right to look to the future, especially as we know most of these agreements take a minimum of three years to sign off. We would not implement any agreements until we have left, but should be free to set them up (though I doubt we have the capacity and competence to do many).

The thing which confuses me is that free trade is what the big business globalists like, and I thought many Brexit voters don't like them. Surely a more protectionist stance would be better for the core vote, at least in their opinion. Is the UK government both pro free trade but against the impact of globalisation on British citizens?

Good summary on tarrifs and customs. There are also non tarrif barriers that the EU could put on place eg obstructively high standards which could affect our services industry, so long as not in breach of World Trade Rules. I anticipate we'll hear more about those as time goes on.

Re bilateral treaty negotiations, the lawyers will have to crawl all over this first - we don't want a punitive fine from the ECJ

The only type of protectionism in the UK government's mind seems to be restricting incoming migrant labour (particularly unskilled) which can undercut the domestic market, and a general control of numbers and population increase. Otherwise it's laissez faire

 

[durbar2003]

We can also start imposing tariff barriers on China (or Ghina as Trump calls them).

 

[ELLERS]

I doubt the £ will recover to about where it was before the referendum until the day ( if it happens) that it becomes clear the UK will stay in the single market.

When the EU collapses we will get €5 to £1.

 

[finglasqpr]

When the EU collapses we will get €5 to £1.

The contrary is far more likely to happen starting with May's declaration of a hard Brexit tomorrow.

 

[ELLERS]

The contrary is far more likely to happen starting with May's declaration of a hard Brexit tomorrow.

TBH I don't like to see things go wrong. I am quite happy with Europe and hope we all get a good deal but from what I am reading and hearing on the news I think Can see the EU falling to bits.

 

[finglasqpr]

TBH I don't like to see things go wrong. I am quite happy with Europe and hope we all get a good deal but from what I am reading and hearing on the news I think Can see the EU falling to bits.

I think the opposite is the truth. Google AIG, HSBC and Citibank leaving London. The exodus of jobs from London to other EU cities has begun. Tomorrow will be the last straw. Literally thousands of jobs leaving London folks. and the pound heading south

 

[finglasqpr]

and 8 months after the General election in Northern Ireland, already having another election on 2nd March and Scotland threatening another independence referendum........

 

[ELLERS]

I think the opposite is the truth. Google AIG, HSBC and Citibank leaving London. The exodus of jobs from London to other EU cities has begun. Tomorrow will be the last straw. Literally thousands of jobs leaving London folks. and the pound heading south

Sorry Finglas it won't happen. Come back in a few weeks and you'll see these companies staying put. London is the banking and services capital. I heard an American recently (I may have already posted) saying None of those EU countries come close to London. I remember Ryanair and Other companies saying they would leave... They haven't. It is all saber rattling. We will come back and discuss in future.

 

[finglasqpr]

Sorry Finglas it won't happen. Come back in a few weeks and you'll see these companies staying put. London is the banking and services capital. I heard an American recently (I may have already posted) saying None of those EU countries come close to London. I remember Ryanair and Other companies saying they would leave... They haven't. It is all saber rattling. We will come back and discuss in future.

They want a EU presence. AIG and Citibank, American companies, already confirmed they are moving the European HQ to Dublin from London with thousands more to follow. HSBC moving to Paris. The Irish IDA (Industrial Development Authority) inundated with enquiries from UK banks. Not only us, many more European cities receiving enquiries from UK banks. London's days as the European banking capital are numbered. BTW Ryanair, Europe's largest airline are 100% based here and going no where. IDA Ireland confirms concrete enquiries from the UK are 40% higher this year than last year. After tomorrow, it will be +++++++++.

 

[ELLERS]

and 8 months after the General election in Northern Ireland, already having another election on 2nd March and Scotland threatening another independence referendum........

As for Scotland, I laugh every time I see that Kranky woman. EU don't want them without us. Oil prices have changed and they know they cannot rely on oil and it's price.
The country isn't in good shape and without us keeping them afloat (I can't remember how much we give them) the would sink quicker than the Titanic.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...d-runs-up-15bn-deficit-twice-size-of-UKs.html

 

[finglasqpr]

As for Scotland, I laugh every time I see that Kranky woman. EU don't want them without us. Oil prices have changed and they know they cannot rely on oil and it's price.
The country isn't in good shape and without us keeping them afloat (I can't remember how much we give them) the would sink quicker than the Titanic.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...d-runs-up-15bn-deficit-twice-size-of-UKs.html

Fair enough but you seem to forget, they, like NI they voted against Brexit. Give them enough scope and they could easily vote for independence.

 

[ELLERS]

They want a EU presence. AIG and Citibank, American companies, already confirmed they are moving the European HQ to Dublin from London with thousands more to follow. HSBC moving to Paris. The Irish IDA (Industrial Development Authority) inundated with enquiries from UK banks. Not only us, many more European cities receiving enquiries from UK banks. London's days as the European banking capital are numbered. BTW Ryanair, Europe's largest airline are 100% based here and going no where. IDA Ireland confirms concrete enquiries from the UK are 40% higher this year than last year. After tomorrow, it will be +++++++++.

If they do move out it will give us room for US/Indian/Canadian/Chinese/Australian companies

 

[finglasqpr]

If they do move out it will give us room for US/Indian/Canadian/Chinese/Australian companies

Good luck with that. The 5m people on your doorstep give you more trade than India, China and Brasil combined. Never mind the rest of the EU.

 

[ELLERS]

Fair enough but you seem to forget, they, like NI voted against Brexit. Give them enough scope and they could easily vote for independence.

Agree they did but I cannot see another referendum. However, It may be good for Scotland to have one so they can get rid of that awful woman. She is trouble with some twisted agenda. Horrid creature.
Anyway Sir that's me done for tonight as I am up early working for a European company (I kid you not).

 

[finglasqpr]

Agree they did but I cannot see another referendum. However, It may be good for Scotland to have one so they can get rid of that awful woman. She is trouble with some twisted agenda. Horrid creature.
Anyway Sir that's me done for tonight as I am up early working for a European company (I kid you not).

With a bit of luck, they will be moving you to the only EU Capital that speaks English. If they do, I will get you drunk in night one.

 

[ELLERS]

Good luck with that. The 5m people on your doorstep give you more trade than India, China and Brasil combined. Never mind the rest of the EU.

One last thing before I go to bed. I heard tonight, That half of the Californian economy is worth more than Russia.

 

[finglasqpr]

One last thing before I go to bed. I heard tonight, That half of the Californian economy is worth more than Russia.

Trump will keep 100% of that in dollars $$$$$$$$$$

 

[QPR Oslo]

I think the opposite is the truth. Google AIG, HSBC and Citibank leaving London. The exodus of jobs from London to other EU cities has begun. Tomorrow will be the last straw. Literally thousands of jobs leaving London folks. and the pound heading south

I can't "like" your post but that scenario is far more likely than these dreams some have about the EU falling to bits. That won't be happening just yet.