The Next German Arc Winner?

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
After Danedream came from nowhere to win last year's Arc, I have been keeping a close eye on the top races here in Germany to see whether we might have another potentially very good horse coming through - and I think I might have found one in the shape of Pastorius.

Part of the first crop of Soldier Hollow (a multiple Group winner in Germany, France and Italy over 8-10F, including a neck defeat of Manduro in a G2 at Longchamp in 2006) out of a Monsun mare, Pastorius made his debut last September in a 2YO Listed race in Cologne, finishing a head 2nd to Black Arrow on soft ground over a mile. He quickly gained his revenge over that opponent in a G3 race in Krefeld in November, winning comfortably 1.5 lengths over 9F on good ground. His 3YO season started somewhat disappointingly, finishing 4th over 8.5F in a G3 at Krefeld (G/Soft) before an abortive trip to the German 2000 Guineas at the end of May saw him finish 7th of 9 behind Caspar Netcher in Cologne, beaten 8 lengths.

But here's where things get interesting ..................................

Stepped up to a mile and a half for the German Derby at Hamburg he came with a withering late run up the outside (right hand side as you watch the replay up the home straight) to collar the 4/6 favourite (and hitherto unbeaten) Novellist and win by half a length.

[video=youtube;W5e8_lDCVhk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5e8_lDCVhk[/video]

And so onto Munich today for the G1 Grosser Dallmayr Preis (10 furlongs, soft) where he faced last year's winner Durban Thunder (took the 2011 race by 1.5 lengths from Dermot Weld's Famous Name) and Zazou, who had beaten no less than Cirrus des Aigles 2 lengths in March and is a real globetrotter, running in the Dubai World Cup and Singapore International Cup this year already and finishing 3rd in the Hong Kong Cup.

Whilst I am still trying to find a video of today's race, I can tell you that Pastorius won by 8 lengths from Durban Thunder with Zazou half a length back in 3rd. Although receiving 10lbs (weight for age) from Durban Thunder, the 3YO colt put the race to bed in the manner of a very good horse and will next tackle the Großer Preis von Baden (over 12 furlongs) in early September, the race won last year by Danedream before she went on to glory in Longchamp. If Pastorius can repeat the demolition job in Baden in early September he will surely be rewarded with an Arc entry.
 
Oddy: Pastorius looks very good as you say, 8-lengths win with the fav. only third. Promised myself I'd go and watch the Grosser Dallmayr this year but have been so taken-up with Olympics missed it completely. And what a price the winner, i.e. 3/1 <doh>.

(Might have got pretty wet though, been hissing down here periodically throughout the day).

Just found a video replay of the race, here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TStafgpEU5Y

(Pastorius very impressive, as you mentioned, can really gallop. Ground must have been very heavy close to the rail? Can believe that with the rain we've had down here recently. Think jockey only had to give him a couple of slaps or so late on to keep him straight and not veer right and head towards stands rail?).
 
We should get a formline tomorrow re where the likes of Pastorious and Novellist stand against the current crop of UK 3YO&#8217;s as the 3rd home, just behind them, in the old German Derby (Girolamo) runs in the &#8216;Glorious&#8217; Goodwood&#8217;s Gordon Stakes (2.35). How will he stack up against the likes of Mr Gosden's Michelangelo and Sir Henry's Noble Mission???
 
OddDog said:
The chap who writes the Sporting Life preview certainly likes his chances [/URL]
Click to expand...

Yep, he deffo does. And I see on official ratings that Girolamo has 3+ pounds in hand on the field. Despite this though those bookie chappies are still going as big as 5/1 re Girolamo&#8217;s chances!
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
We should get a formline tomorrow re where the likes of Pastorious and Novellist stand against the current crop of UK 3YO’s as the 3rd home, just behind them, in the old German Derby (Girolamo) runs in the ‘Glorious’ Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes (2.35). How will he stack up against the likes of Mr Gosden's Michelangelo and Sir Henry's Noble Mission???
Click to expand...

That's a good point Barney. I can't help but think though that he's come on since then, so maybe that form line might not be as true an indicator as it looks on paper.
 
Oddy: Obviously there's something I'm missing here, but can you explain why Zazou was made favourite in this Munich race (7/4 I think?) and Pastorius allowed to go at 3/1? OK, Zazou has pieces of decent form (Italy, good run in Hong Kong, etc.) but I cannot make the horse favourite in the Grosser Dallmayr.
 
Jongleur said:
Oddy: Obviously there's something I'm missing here, but can you explain why Zazou was made favourite in this Munich race (7/4 I think?) and Pastorius allowed to go at 3/1? OK, Zazou has pieces of decent form (Italy, good run in Hong Kong, etc.) but I cannot make the horse favourite in the Grosser Dallmayr.
Click to expand...

Had me a bit baffled too Swanny - maybe they thought the older horse might have the edge over 3YOs? TBH they finished in a bit of a heap in the German Derby so that may have led to a general perception that the 3YOs weren't up to much?
 
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