The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Friday 6th Sept)

Engaged in what?

 

Just watching the England game.

Is Declan Rice better than our Kalvin ?

No flipping way if you ask me.

 

Oh dear, expect a very long and nonsensical response from LL

 

I read that as ‘if i’m not enraged by half time’ and assumed it was business as usual

 

Yes, I have seen it many times before. But you see Bielsa has his favourites and those will never be subbed or left out of the team unless they are injured. That means Klich will always be subbed.

I would like to see Costa in for Forshaw, but that is never going to happen as long as Bielsa is manager

 

He has got 13 in 29 for us and has got 4 in 2 for the U23's

 

Carrying his chip? Looks to me like you bloody ate it!

 

No mate, that chip's too big to swallow, like most of what he says.

 

Unfortunately WJ the blustering fool that is Chesh never has anything to back up his comments.

Today he's decided that my post match analysis are incorrect, however he totally fails to bring any comment or opinion of mine to the table for discussion. It's totally disgraceful character assassination without providing a shred of evidence.

Last season his thinly veiled allegations alluded to me somehow being an informant of illegal streams being viewed. Failing that he trots out the prawn sandwich and yuppie lines again and again.

He's would be an easy target but I've never once said anything derogatory about him personally.

Seems he just can't handle being put on the spot to justify his posts...such as a team of non triers at QPR last season. I'm more than happy for anyone to challenge my views as many have and do, it makes for interesting debate which is after all why we are all here.

 

Lol talk about bitter and paranoid,starting to think you're stalking me (QPR LAST SEASON) Gee have you got all my posts saved.Don't need any people with split personalities stalking me so will put you on ignore, and you can carry on talking to yourself.Of coarse you never have a go at anyone, your attempts to get LL banned, your vailed threats to people watching free links,suggest you look for some treatment.

 

I'm keeping out of this one. Misjudged it & regret the chip jib. Did enjoy it at the time, though, Chesh, as one big eater to another

 

Not a problem m8, we have disagreements all the time and carry on with no problems the next day,how it should be.His state of mind worries me so he's now on ignore,security have been put on alert and cameras installed around the house.

 

I'll comment generally rather than to the one specific person.

I see the personal insults continue unabashed, which is no surprise.

Anyway that's the end of it so we all move on.

 

Think Bamford wasn't talking about playing 2 up top he was talking about Bamford up top with Eddie either left or right as he has played there lots before and scored and created. That would also be worth a try for me too as I would like to see them both and if that means costa goes right and Pablo goes 10 fine. costa can actually play 10 too so you can leave Pablo right but the movement would be great and as for Eddie part of a front 3 which was tried with Roofe but didn't look that good but remember that both scored in one match and both created the others goal?

The Bamford stat I have seen and is correct, so you cannot drop him until he makes an arse of himself. The stat that kills Bamford is the 45% accuracy ratio with other top scorers between 60 and 75%. I believe that can change if he takes a split second longer?

 

Good points Doc.

Probably worth mentioning that Nketiah came on for Harrison in the Brentford game and did play on the left side. Not hugging the touchline like a winger but definitely left side of a front 3 with Costa on the right.

The fact that Bamford was central and occupying defenders definitely contributed to the goal and like all centre forwards he knows he'll get more chances himself if he has support up top.

 

Think Eddie playing together will give Bamford that bit of time extra, he won't have as many in close attention, and will make himself a better player.

 

Agreed, but are we absolutely convinced that Eddie or anyone else for that matter, can do better?

Most of these 'chances' are in front of a bus, or from crosses coming in that aren't too accurate. I've seen Bamford go for crosses that were ****e 'hit & hopes', but he converted them into chances. But the 'chances' invariably bounced off the wrong part of his head, or flew close by. He could have hidden if he assessed he wouldn't score, making his conversion rate much better. PErhaps he's too honest & tries too hard?

Now I'm not saying he's perfect, as he does screw up some decent chances, but what I am saying is that sometimes I'd like to throttle the stats person who defines 'the chances'. Are they all 99% cert chances, or are they 1% chances. I'm guessing a mix, but all are clumped under the 'chances' generalisation. Is Bamford missing loads of 99%-ers or loads of 1%-ers?

If I'm truly honest, going by what I've seen so far, many of these 'chances' would never have been recorded as chances if Eddie was playing up front himself.

I don't think I've articulated this too well. Anyone catch on to what I'm trying to say & make it a bit clearer?

 

See you all on the 21st in and out on the the day. Whats all this personal crap. FFS

 

I dont know if there’s a stat that shows you how a striker gets into position to get a chance.

But there are stats that rank quality of chances.... ‘Expected goals’ calculates the likelihood of scoring every chance, so differentiates between getting the ball facing the goal in the box from a cutback v back to goal 30 yards out etc. Clearly it’s just an algorithm and so it can’t factor every nuance of an individual chance but it’s a decent indicator.

Last season our exp goals for and against would have had us top of the league, Brentford and Swansea were the other ‘inefficient’ sides. Norwich interestingly scored way more than ‘expected’ probably showing how good pukki was.

Here’s this years league. This site works out whether you should have won drawn lost each game based in exp goals. Not surprisingly we should be top with 100% record. We should have scored 2 more than we have, and conceded 1 more. Swansea would only be mid table on expected goals.
https://experimental361.com/2019/08/31/expected-goals-league-tables-30-aug-1-sep-2019/

This site breaks it down by player. Bamford has scored 4 and should have scored 4 from chances this season.

https://www.infogol.net/en/player/patrick-bamford/536

So no better or worse than you would expect from chances. Obviously the better strikers should score more than ‘expected’ over a season. That’s what makes them better strikers.

 

Spot on and was trying to think how to say that yesterday. When I said wait a split second more it was because I felt he was having a go when it wasn't on which messes his accuracy stat. That particular stat shows that Bamford makes more attempts than anyone else but because of that his accuracy rate falls. But its like the difference between Douglas and Alioski as Alioski will blaze away in every match and be on target 10% from 6 goes whilst Douglas will be on target twice from 3 attempts making Douglas way more accurate???? Hope this makes sense.

Maybe Bamford is great at creating a chance from nothing so another striker wouldn't have got the chance which makes his stat look better