The Hornet's Nest

I got the impression from JW that things are ok, looks like the corner and pitch to be done in the summer and as far as he knows unamended plan for the future. He did mention the red lion but surely that has to be a standalone success so whatever development goes on there should be able to be funded through normal borrowing lines or better and paid by whatever revenue the new use produces whilst adding a bit of profit to the club to increase its value. I think the summer will be the time to offload Loach if he can get his saving hands and command together, he's got to stay in the spotlight to increase value but needs to perform, can't see him being dropped for more than 3 games with tht objective in mind. My guess is we'll be looking for revenue in from transfers of 5-8 million with 2-5 of that going back into purchase budget, what that means in terms of transfers who knows?

 

Until some things are made a bit clearer there a number of things I would like to know. The £3.5m to see us through. Is that needed just to continue paying the wages etc. or is some of that for the building works and pitch. As far as I remember another million was required to complete the SW corner and about half that for the pitch. A couple of million might be what is required for general costs, but who knows?

JW indicated that the new board was likely to be in place next week. At that point a very clear statement of intent should be made available to the public. In his regrettable interview Mr. B said that we the fans would be pleased when the direction that the club would go in was unfolded. Next week would be a good time to take the wraps off.

 

But the Winter "interview" was very poor was it not? He was not cross-examined at all, and no searching questions were asked, though goodness knows plenty of questions abound. He was allowed to give the impression that things are "O.K. ", and that the new owner has "bought into the Watford Way"--so thats all right then. Unfortunately this seems to be Winters role now--reassuring the fans that everything is fine and the club is making progress--I wonder if he is comfortable in that role? I do not see him staying for long. Maybe he will be more candid when he leaves.

The Russo's now have 15 days to decide if they want to sell their shares for 1p each. That will be the next interesting development. Their shares only become completely worthless when Mr B exercises the warrants and he may not have enough money to do that. So they may decide to hang on and exploit whatever leverage a minority shareholding gives them. That is unless they are behind the whole thing of course......

 

A good day made bad. How can we lose to Coventry? They are very poor.

 

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for those who want.

 

View attachment 1716 Thanks Ak...very in need tonight

 

I must admit to being very disappointed with the interview. It had been trailed all afternoon, giving the impression that we would find out some information. What is it with the WO and now Jon Marks? Have they been told that there will only be answers to certain types of questions? The fact that the Red Lion was mentioned did make me wonder just what is their plan. That fine establishment hasn't been mentioned for weeks on here, and when the Russo's were running the shop they said that it was too expensive to do up.

As there only seems the question of which day next week they take over, and we know that the offer document talked about the SW corner, pitch and east stand without giving a timeline for those, we must ask do they have more money available to tackle the first two this summer.

My feeling has been that there is more to this than has been made public. The only money that we know about is that which Mr.B has lodged. To contemplate further works requires more than we have been told.

 

OFH--quite so. And as for the money that has been lodged, well do not know the source of it, or if it is the limit of Mr B's resources or what. What we do know, as I said before , is that it will have to do a lot of work. £3.5M of it is the " working capital" to the end of this financial year £1M is the first installment of the bond repayment, another £1.5M will be held by the solicitors for next years bond repayment,and most of the rest is what will fund the share buyout and expenses of the takeover. Not a lot left for ground improvements of any kind. Especially since it is only loaned to the new holding company (not to the club) for a year.

I think Aberdeen's estimate of what will need to be raised by player sales in the summer is conservative--and even so, will have to be repeated year on year if the bonds (and new debts) are to be repaid out of this revenue, as well as the "normal" operating losses of the club. A tall order.

Which brings up the issue of Mr B's intentions and capabilities. Why would anyone invest £7M of their own money in a business that has predictable operating losses of £4-5M a year and is £10M in debt? And undertake to clear the debt and replace it with his own? Even if the business was going cheap? How can he hope to fund such an enterprise? He says there are unrealised commercial opportunities in the business , but these have eluded Winter and others so far. With his less than glittering history of business success, do we really think he will deliver on these?

Our opponents today have lost their owners £25M in the three years since they took over-- and they are a well resourced hedge fund,and can carry such losses for a while. Can Mr B. sustain the inevitable losses that lie ahead?

 

In normal business terms one might decide to buy a company in the belief that you can restructure it to make it more profitable. As things are today in the football world you cannot term it normal and to a large degree you cannot restructure it. Different "bolt-on" bits and pieces have been tried, such as hotels, conference facilities etc, but there are very few clubs operating at a profit.

Technically I think Watford is insolvent, and it has only been by way of loans that the club has remained afloat. It is all very well to say that we will sell players to make up the shortfall, but first of all you have to find a buyer prepared to pay the price that you are asking. To base all of your plans on selling players every time you need the cash is very high risk.

Because Mr B. came across so badly in that interview all of the attention has been placed on him. I would be very surprised if in time we find out that he is the only one going to put money into the enterprise. The figures just don't stack up from my viewpoint.

 

Morning All,

Wish I could say that it is a bright sunny morning, but it isn't. Grey and wet actually which puts a bit of a damper on my plans for the day.

Think I will catch up on the news, but really think it better to forget yesterday's game.

 

Morning... reading all your comments... It just doesn't make sense. Yet seemingly lawyers anmd accountants will have passed this takeover.

And as you say Frenchie.... we are technically insolvent...

worrying for the future.

 

Morning! Easier to forget after a caramel latte I think.

It's hard to find any positives from yesterday so I think it best if i just look forward .

Btw, I heard a not very surprising rumour last night that DG would be off in the summer for approximately £4m plus add-ons. Not sure if its a guess or not but the source is certain. Time will tell I suppose.

 

Morning..

you prob. are right.... however, I can remember posting a direct quote from Cleverly that he was going to Newcastle...!!

I just dont feel good about this takeover...

 

I would feel better if we knew more and it didn't feel so 'cloak and dagger'. They just need to be more open with us, if they want our confidence in them...but that's a big 'if'.

 

Morning all.... don't really want to start much more on yesterday's game...should have been about 5-3...

 

It is indeed worrying that the whole future of the club now seems to depend on keeping Danny Graham fit, and finding a club willing to pay £4-5 M for him this summer. Let him play one more home game so we can say "Thanks and goodbye" then wrap him in cotton wool till the money is in the bank.

 

Afternoon all and a sunny one here ,even if the mood in my office is gloomy another defeat yesterday which I thinks puts paid to play off hopes! 2 defeats on the bounce to teams we should be beating ,and now come the games we wont be expecting to win ! who knows what will happen .
I didnt hear the interview so cant really comment! only to say that as usual I think OFH is onto to something ,otherwise the maths doesnt work
Hornette I think that after the season he has had we can safely assume he wont be wearing Watford yellow next season! I am assuming DG and SL going , I would hope that DC stays but have a sneaky feeling he will be on his way as well!
Roger I think we should rest DG now as well and wheel him out against QPR and hope he scores a couple in his last watford home game ,as potentially QPR would be one of the suitors for his signature.
All in all not a happy bunny here

 

All pure speculation on my part Norway. I know as much as everyone else and that is not a great deal.

Just hoping that having gone this far, LA doesn't get a bouncy cheque.

 

To go with the bouncy east stand we can have an inflatable red lion

 

I still maintain that if they make the East Stand a bouncy castle I will get a season ticket - even if it is a 500 miles round trip