The Guineas

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floridaspearl

floridaspearl

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Feb 19, 2013
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the first classics of the season are almost with us. I'd be interested in any thoughts and fancies. On the 2000 Charlie applebys Masar looks the pick for me his demolition in the craven looks impressive . I'd like to see mark Johnstons elarqarm win because he's a frankel. Of the o'brien trio the favourite looks opposable . I can't believe us navy flag doesn't run the best juvenile last year. I'm off to HQ on Sunday for the 1000 the three that take my eye are happily and the two Appleby fillies and you can't help but be impressed with the performance of soliloquy in the nell qwyn.
 
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Im on Gustav Klimt. He finishes his races off very well but i just wonder if he is a little on the small side after his run at Leopardstown last time out where USNF was well beaten, probably why he doesnt run Florida.
Of course you have to worry about the Frankel horse Elarqarm.
 
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Very difficult to get a handle on any of them. I have no idea how these have progressed over the winter. I query the form of the Racing Post last year. So I'm ruling out Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion. I don't rate the form of Masar. I think he'll need to go a lot quicker than he has to win this. Last year I was sure I'd seen the winner in Expert Eye but difficult to be confident now. He had comfortably beaten the horse that beat him recently. So either that horse has progressed past him or he was nowhere near fit in that race. Would like to see him run a good race. Elarqam is really interesting, being unbeaten and by Frankel

As I am not confident about a win I think I will settle for a small ew on Tip Two Win at 33/1. He was put in his place by Elarqam last year but has had 2 good warm up runs over the winter and shouldn't be failing for fitness
 
Like many I'm not convinced by the favourite and won't sweat it If he does win as he's no sort of price based on the form to date.

Like others I'll be delighted if Elarqam can do the business for his sire but inexperience and a gut feeling he'll pull his chance away will prevent me from backing him on the day (Although I did get some of the 33/1 on him back in September)

I've backed Saxon Warrior mainly because of his price. I may be wrong but I think RP Trophy winners don't have a great record in the guineas, but I think this year may be a weak year so it will give him the opportunity like Camelot had. Also surely Murillo is in there to set a fast early pace to make it more dependent on stamina.
 
I'll be disappointed if Saxon Warrior can win this. I have convinced myself he is a 10-12f beast and my anteposts need AOB to think that too :) On the face of it it seems unlikely as both his sire and dam were mile or less animals. Obviously I'm hoping his grandfather's stamina has transfered to SW, and although Roaring Lion almost had him in the RP Trophy, I felt if they had travelled further then RL would have faded out of contention. It's flimsy, yes, but it works for me <laugh>
 
I think the 2000 Guineas is more open than the favourite’s odds would suggest:

Elarqam is looking to follow both his parents to course and distance Classic victory. Just as well Sheikh Hamdan has not got two runners so Crowley cannot pick the wrong one. Not seen since September other than a racecourse gallop so necessary improvement would have to be taken on trust. Hope he runs well.

Expert Eye has flopped twice and I can virtually get my ante post odds on course without the risk of him not running. I am now inclined to think that the Vintage Stakes cake walk was a fluke, the ‘lame’ excuse after the Dewhurst was not supported by seeing the horse walk around the unsaddling area looking sound (as I was there) and the Newbury form does not look good enough.

Gustav Klimt won a Mickey Mouse race on debut where only one of the four runners was not from Ballydoyle. A friend of mine has a decent ante post ticket but I do not think he will be collecting as the form of none of his races looks that hot and the price reflects the trainer who has won the race eight times.

James Garfield won at Newbury but that did not look a great race on paper – other than expectation that Expert Eye would win easily – but I hope he goes well for Frankie and connections.

Masar was visually impressive in the Craven but it is questionable whether he will be allowed to dominate again (suspect Murillo is pacemaker for Ballydoyle). If he does not need to lead and can lay up handy, I think he is the most likely winner of those that have seen a racecourse this term.

Roaring Lion has a lot of ground to make up on Masar and it is hard to see how unless John Gosden left him seriously short of peak fitness; plus the trainer suggested stepping up to the Dante and he failed to hold off Saxon Warrior at Doncaster.

Saxon Warrior is following the more common O'Brien route to Guineas victory – arriving on seasonal debut – and could well be victorious for his son if a couple of the others run below par and the mile is not now on the short side for what many of us see as a Derby horse. Sea The Stars managed to do the double but began with less expectation.
 
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With Clemmie absent, the 1000 Guineas is wide open:

Altyn Orda was second in the Nell Gwyn but it is hard to see why she should reverse placings with the winner.

Anna Nerium was a surprise winner of the Free Handicap but it is hard to see her as more than a place prospect as that was not a very strong renewal.

Dan’s Dream has won both her starts this term, including an open Fred Darling last time but I am unconvinced that it amounts to the required level of form for a Classic and she went to Newbury race fit.

Happily will go off favourite and won two juvenile Group 1s; however, she looks like a filly that prefers to get her toe in, so will the drying ground be against her and a jet-lagged Ryan Moore?

I Can Fly has been shortening in the betting but clearly needs to have been chewing up the Ballydoyle gallops if she is going to win this on her fourth start given her only career win was a Dundalk maiden. But then, Winter came here without a high profile...

Laurens won the Fillies’ Mile over course and distance after victory in the May Hill. Although her fitness has to be taken on trust, I can see her going really well for PJ McDonald and her battling qualities will see her at least make the frame.

Soliloquy won the Nell Gwyn from the front and won her previous race the same way. Given the presence of plenty of pace in the race, will she sulk if she cannot lead? Currently, she would be my idea of the winner with a small amount of improvement on last time.

Wild Illusion won the Prix Marcel Boussac when last seen on the racecourse and is a bit of an unknown quantity making her seasonal bow but given the form of the yard, I think she could be in at the finish.
 
I'm taking a chance that the previously smart looking Expert Eye can recapture some of that early promise and get the job done. Backed at 9/1 BOG.
 
Just looking back at Bustino's Almanac comp, I see I have Saxon Warrior for the 2000 Gns so I'll stick with him
 
Badminton I assume .... either games with a shuttlecock or horse trials - take your pick :)
 
Have taken a highly speculative view on this. Rajasinghe hasn't really trained on since the Coventry but he did win that race nevertheless. I'm happy to risk a few pennies at 66/1
 
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