The Greenham form?

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
I would have still waited to see If he is supplemented Oddy, as I don't think he'll shorten up as much as you are suggesting. I reckon you'll still get 10/1 if he's supplemented. It is a Guineas after all, and Intilaq is still only a maiden winner, even if he was super impressive :biggrin:
 
I have not backed him as I am not sure the owner will supplement him with Estikdaar in the race as well. He will likely go on Hanagans say so as he sat on both horses on the same day and made the running on both, and so he is perfectly placed to say who is more likely to win the guineas. In my view Intilaaq will leave Estikdaar standing in the last furlong over a mile but PH will obviously know more (you would think). I think he will go off around 5-1 if he runs Oddy as the supplementation will attract attention in itself and if people note that the owner of Estikdaar has supplemented another he must think it better.
 
Glad he is supplemented though- adds a nice angle to the race IMO.

Zawraq leaves this one alone and will head for a Derby trial en route towards Epsom. He is exciting- I hope we get to see his maiden runner up Sir Isaac Newton in one of the trials too as it could turn out to be a decent bit of form.
 
I am on at 12's each way - must start shorter than that ! I reckon 5-1.

It will be interesting to see which Hanagan will ride.
 
He will not start 5/1 when he's 12/1 now and has been supplemented <laugh>

I actually fancy him myself a little bit, so I'm not knocking the horses form. Just saying the price will not half like your predicting <ok>
 
Let's wait and see Shergs - the deciding factor will be if Hanagan gets off Estikdaar which I feel sure he will.

The way I see it is Hanagan sat on both on the same day and when it came to supplementation Hamdan must have asked do you feel he could beat Estikdaar and do you feel he can win the Guineas - with Estikdaar already running he would not need supplement a horse with less chance than his first string. If he had said no then of course we would likely not be talking about a supplemented horse, If he said yes then it would make no sense in not choosing to ride him. Should he switch to ride him surely punters must make him at least as short as Estikdaars current 7-1 average price. I then factor in that Gleneagles is drifting and little else capturing the imagination due to average trials. I see Intilaaq being all the rage and going off around 5-1.

I also see Elm Park and Ivawood shortening on the day from current 10-1 and 14-1 respectively.
 
Bustino74 said:
It's very open.....

Any views on Elm Park's gallop on Friday. I saw nothing in the usual places.
Click to expand...

I have not seen anything either Bustino - I do really like the horse however and although I think connections have always felt his classic would be the Derby I think he has a touch of class and if there is no stand out miler in this field on the day he could pinch a Guineas along the way. My view is that Intilaaq wins the Guineas with Elm Park running a very good place and then mounting a very serious Derby challenge. I think Intilaaq has too much speed for a Derby and what will hopefully win him a Guineas, which will be the ability to kick from a strong pace, will be blunted over the extra four furlongs. This is not say he wont stay 12 furlongs, but that he wont have the ammunition after 10f to kick and a stronger stayer will have more pace at the end.
 
Bluesky9 said:
The way I see it is Hanagan sat on both on the same day and when it came to supplementation Hamdan must have asked do you feel he could beat Estikdaar and do you feel he can win the Guineas - with Estikdaar already running he would not need supplement a horse with less chance than his first string.
Click to expand...

I am unconvinced that Hamdan Al Maktoum will have asked Hanagan whether to add the maiden winner Intilaaq to the Guineas. The trainer may have suggested it to the racing manager but I think that the owner largely makes his own calls.

It may be more a case that in what looks a wide open 2000 Guineas (ignore the ante post odds of the favourite), he has decided to have two runners to double his chances – there is only one colts’ mile Classic per season. Virtually every year we see Aidan O’Brien run just one or two in the Derby when he has a good horse that he fancies or half a dozen when he does not.
 
To employ a stable jockey who rode both on the same day and not ask his view would be a very strange state of affairs with regard Hamdan. I am not suggesting he allowed Hanagan to make the decision but his view as to the comparative feel of both horses must have contributed quite a bit.
 
I am really surprised about that if it turns out to be the case come post time. Whilst I am not certain Intilaaq will win I am pretty sure he will finish in front of Estikdaar.
 
TopClass said:
Have you any early thoughts on Epsom as of yet mate?
Click to expand...

Christophermarlowe is engaged in the Chester Vase this week and the Dante the week after. I like the way he handled the track and stayed on all the way to the line in the Derby trial at Epsom in an OK time (2.62 seconds above standard). Showed a nice change of gear coming out of Tattenham Corner too. He's as low as 12s in some books, which makes little appeal, but the 20s available with Paddy Power and Hills feels OK and he will surely be single figures if he wins one of the above mentioned trials.
 
OddDog said:
Christophermarlowe is engaged in the Chester Vase this week and the Dante the week after. I like the way he handled the track and stayed on all the way to the line in the Derby trial at Epsom in an OK time (2.62 seconds above standard). Showed a nice change of gear coming out of Tattenham Corner too. He's as low as 12s in some books, which makes little appeal, but the 20s available with Paddy Power and Hills feels OK and he will surely be single figures if he wins one of the above mentioned trials.
Click to expand...

Our kid is very sweet on this horse. He was very confident on Ruler Of The World a couple of years back when he saw his Derby trial and with the AOB team potentially chopping and changing perhaps there won't be quite so many people dismissing this one.

Personally I think he'll find a couple too good but he handles the track and Gosden is confident he will stay well.

Look out for Giovanni Cannaleto at Chester- he was booked in for their trial I think.

Zawraq seems to set a damn good standard IMO and thats why I am also intrigued to see Sir Isaac Newton reappear. He is entered in a Chester maiden and the Dante.
 
Beefy, do you call it passed-posting, after-timing or hindsight?

If you go back to Christmas Eve 2014, Ladbrokes were going 14/1 Gleneagles and he was behind Faydhan, Ol’ Man River and Ivawood in the 2000 Guineas betting. Well done anybody who took those odds. Territories was 33/1 then. On 15th March, Gleneagles was down to 9/1 favourite.

On the 31st March he was down to 100/30. On the 18th April he was down to 11/4 and Territories was more than 50/1 (not quoted on Oddschecker). On 19th April, Gleneagles was down to 2/1 and that only went out to 9/4 on 25th April when Territories was re-introduced at 9/1. On Friday night it was 3/1. All of those ante post prices were worse than the starting price and had the risk of losing your money if he did not show up. Congratulations to anyone who got the 9/2 on the day a few minutes before the off or who left it to the SP of 4/1.

According to the official ratings, going into the stalls of Saturday Gleneagles was rated 116, behind Ivawood (117), equal to Estidhkaar, three pounds better than Territories (114) and four pounds better than Kool Kompany and Cappella Sansevero (113). Gleneagles skinny ante post odds on 28th April were nothing to do with form and everything to do with weight of money.

I still do not think that Hamdan Al Maktoum would have made a decision to run more than one in the race by looking on Oddschecker to see what the punters were betting on but on the known form of the potential runners. On paper it was a wide open race.
 
QuarterMoonII said:
Beefy, do you call it passed-posting, after-timing or hindsight?

If you go back to Christmas Eve 2014, Ladbrokes were going 14/1 Gleneagles and he was behind Faydhan, Ol’ Man River and Ivawood in the 2000 Guineas betting. Well done anybody who took those odds. Territories was 33/1 then. On 15th March, Gleneagles was down to 9/1 favourite.

On the 31st March he was down to 100/30. On the 18th April he was down to 11/4 and Territories was more than 50/1 (not quoted on Oddschecker). On 19th April, Gleneagles was down to 2/1 and that only went out to 9/4 on 25th April when Territories was re-introduced at 9/1. On Friday night it was 3/1. All of those ante post prices were worse than the starting price and had the risk of losing your money if he did not show up. Congratulations to anyone who got the 9/2 on the day a few minutes before the off or who left it to the SP of 4/1.

According to the official ratings, going into the stalls of Saturday Gleneagles was rated 116, behind Ivawood (117), equal to Estidhkaar, three pounds better than Territories (114) and four pounds better than Kool Kompany and Cappella Sansevero (113). Gleneagles skinny ante post odds on 28th April were nothing to do with form and everything to do with weight of money.

I still do not think that Hamdan Al Maktoum would have made a decision to run more than one in the race by looking on Oddschecker to see what the punters were betting on but on the known form of the potential runners. On paper it was a wide open race.
Click to expand...

Merely jesting QM! It was with the nonchalance you seemed to suggest the market leader didn't warrant his position there. He clearly did, and that's not said with hindsight, but the fact he was coming from a yard who pick up Classics like no other. Considering the bullish noises coming from them in the run up, it was clear he was doing things at home that suggested he wasn't a million miles off their previous SIX winners of the race. The weight of money was very telling. Then you consider the fact he was the only one in the race to have won 2 Group Ones (despite obviously losing one in the stewards room) and the blatant weakness of the home challenge which was backed up by those trials!!! The fact they were making a class 4 maiden winner a single price for a Classic told you everything you needed to know. O'Brien's charge was a very worthy favourite in that field.

Shame I backed his other runner mind <laugh><rofl>
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ron
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back