The Great Grand Crus Debate

Despite the fact that it was me who first suggested the Long Run regressing point I don't really believe it myself. I do however think that it is perfectly plausible that he ha reached his peak. Then again it seems he might have lost a bit of pace, maybe as consequence of filling out, so I suppose he might have 'regressed' in that department.

Kauto Star seems a rejuvenated horse this year and I would expect him to finish off his race far better this year than he did last when he stopped very quickly. With this in mind it is important to understand that Long Run's jumping has been no worse, and probably better, than it wa last year. I think he's a very good horse but not unbeatable because he will always be vulnerable to a horse with pace.

 

Thanks for starting the thread, Grizzly

Well, if Grands Crus were mine then I'd wait until the 2013 Gold Cup, but I won't be criticizing his connections if they enter him this season.

@Istabraq

I, too, was a huge fan of Gloria Victis. The day he died was one of the worst days of my life, it took me weeks to come to terms with what had happened to him...I was inconsolable.
I loved that horse dearly, his death will haunt me until the day I die.

I wrote Martin Pipe a letter afterwards, he sent me a reply, and a photo of Gloria Victis winning the Racing Post Chase with Richard Johnson.

I remember Tony McCoy saying that if he'd had to choose a horse to go to war with it would have been Gloria Victis...which just about says it all really.

Jeez...I'm nearly crying writing this...sorry for the waffle.

 

Long Run beat a below par Kauto last year and therefore maybe his victories over Kauto were not as significant as they appeared to some at the time. This year Kauto has been electric and has beaten Long Run twice. The first time we know that Kauto had been trained for the race and Long Run hadn't. The second time it was widely expected that Long Run would improve for the run and overhaul Kauto. Given Kauto's impeccable performance that day, the fact that Long Run's jumping wasn't brilliant at times and yet was still running on at the finish, suggests to me that, maybe, Long Run has actually improved since last year (ie he may well have been beaten last year by an on song Kauto). In the KG SWC had the whip out on Long Run whereas I don't recall Ruby reaching for his at any stage. This could be interpreted as Kauto having more in hand than the winning margin indicates (he certainly looked as though he hadn't been in a race when parading after his victory). However, I doubt the whip would have brought much more from dear old Kauto had the race been a further 2 furlongs uphill.

Long Run was simply not slick enough or fast enough and was completely out-jumped over Kauto's favourite track. However, at Cheltenham it will be a different story and, provided his jumping doesn't let him down, I find it hard to oppose Long Run in the Gold Cup.

 

I'll explain why I think Kauto can (not necessarily will, because, like many, I think the race will suit Long Run more) when I get round to writing up my Christmas Conclusions thread! Hopefully tomorrow, but oh so much to say!

At this stage for Grands Crus I am very firmly in the undecided camp. I had my doubts about him as a chaser but his physical development over the summer has been quite startling. He has looked good twice and exceptional in the Feltham. I wouldn't at this stage rule out either option but if he were mine I would certainly be considering the Gold Cup at least along with the RSA. More of him later too.

 

From what I've seen, I think Kauto Star is having a golden Autumn to his career. He's fresh, vibrant and full of himself. I seriously believe him to be on another level to last season. He's a champion who produces something special every year, but this season has been breath taking. Maybe it's just that we all want him to keep going at a ripe old age, and so read things that we want to see, into these wins. But I think not. Long Run is the proof for mine. Going into the King George, most of us thought the field to be pretty strong. The fact that both Long Run and Kauto Star smashed them, for me says that these two are class acts. It's easier for me to believe that, than to believe that those beaten were over rated. I have faith in what I saw. Kauto Star is a living legend, Long Run is a bloody good horse who if he stays sound, will win a **** load more G1 races.

P.S. Sorry for wandering off course here Grizz.

 

No worries Cyc, the merits of Grand Crus potential opponents is relevant.

Something else I was mulling over last night, does the option of running Grand Crus in the Jewson exist ?
Some think the RSA would be a penalty kick, I'm not so sure, it's still a gruelling race for novices, so if connections are desperate for a Festival winner how about the 2m 5f softer option ?

 

I tend to agree with you on the free kick thing Grizz. Sure he'll go in hot and should win, but how often have we said that, then seen something come unstuck?

 

I'd be more worried about the presence of average novices who can't jump, he'll almost have to be ridden like it was the Grand National, 20 yards wide of the pack to stay out of trouble.
The Jewson (race won by Noble Prince, not the handicap) is a much easier target over a less demanding trip and is likely to scare plenty away so won't be a 20 runner cavalry charge - obviously they think he'll be a Gold Cup horse but you don't have to go through the RSA to win one....

 

Apparently Grands Crus' Owner is favouring the Gold Cup. He is 70-30 in favour of the Gold Cup over the RSA.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...crus-owner-favouring-gold-cup-bid/968822/top/

He will run in the Argento and then a decision will be made.

 

I suppose if you have a good one, in good form, it's worth a shot at the big time.

 

I knew Grands Crus time in the Feltham was faster than the KG, but I didn't realise it was more than 2 seconds faster. Had Grands Crus been in the KG then I think it's fair to say, that he may well have won it. You also must remember Grands Crus was eased down a little, whilst Kauto Star was flat out to hold off Long Run.

Not saying times are concrete evidence of anything, but I do feel it would be very naive to ignore them. So glad to hear connections are thinking about the Gold Cup

 

I'd advise caution with the times because they start when the starter lets them go and not when they cross the start line. That means there is quite a bit of room for error.

That said it was clearly a very impressive performance from Grands Crus. The way he grabbed hold of the race down the back straight and made good horses like Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth look ordinary was most taking.

 

Grand Crus gave a good performance in the Feltham. In his favour he has won over the Cheltenham fences and he has run previously at the Festival.

 

I think they'll go the Gold Cup route myself. The more you look at it the more fallible the opposition look. Yesterdays Lexus was a joke. Long Run has plenty of question marks himself. Lacks tactical cruising pace, jumping is wayward etc Kauto Star maybe, just maybe will find the run-in too much considering his age. After that the opposition is sparse on the ground. I'd really fancy Grands Crus in it, the more I think of it. He's quicker than Long Run and far more fluent at his fencing. He could actually turn it into a procession...

 

GC 11/2 for RSA now on betfair hmmm Gold Cup bound

 

I think the drift is understandable considering they've said he's more likely to run in the Gold Cup at this stage.

I like his chances too. He seems to stay well but has loads of pace. I never liked TFR last season for the RSA but this horse is a different league. If TFR was considered for the Gold Cup then this horse definitely should.

 

Not sure I agree with your logic here Ron. Big Bucks, to me, is a completely different kettle of fish. If you watch the Liverpool hurdle from last year again I think you will come to the conclusion that whilst the winning margin was officially 5 lengths or so, it may as well have been 15. Big Bucks is twice the athlete Grands Crus is....buuuutt....