The Grand National Elimination Process

I have my picks for the Grand National - elimination process complete for me:-

Teaforthree - jumping is the name of the game and no one does it better in my view - 5lbs lower than last year - thats a first 5 place for this horse and is as near to printing money you can get in a race like this.

Big Shu - will stay and I think he will take to the fences and has some class and travels well in his races. I'm thinking ala Silver Birch. Has a nice low racing weight too..

Dangers are a plenty but Long Run for sure especially now they've gone more girly on the fences...

 

I'm backing Balthazaur (sp?) King and Big Shu.

 

As my Cheltenham drinking buddies will testify I am a big BALTHAZAR KING fan but he is a funny so and so and definitely goes best fresh. Without his cross country effort I would be all over him. He will be one that I back but with nowhere near as much confident if he had had a sixty day rest coming into this!

 

Sunnyhillboy, Godsmejudge, Mossey Joe, Roi Du Mee, Bog Warrior, Same Difference, Katenko and Goulanes were the eight horses scratched at the confirmation stage

 

I see one interesting ‘stat’ is that the last 11 winners of the race had all won 3+ races over fences. However, only 2 of these had won more than 5 chases. Recent history would suggest therefore that you want something who has won between 3-5 times over the big ‘uns.

Amazing to think as well that over the past 5 campaigns the average SP of the winner has been 45/1! No wonder those old rogues, those bookie chappies, are promoting the race like bally mad.

 

Make you wonder if they get a bit cagey with experience Barney.

 

Listen up people
I think I've stumbled on the winner of the national. Wait for it! Walkon.
I know there are a lot of negatives ,but there are a few positives. he has course form 2nd in the Topham behind the Henderson fancy, he is lightly raced for a 9 year old
finishing in the money in 50% of his races. Weight wise 11 stone and just inside Sticks 60 day stat. 50/1 ew bang on.

 

An old fave of mine but I rather suspect, Walkon, falls into the same category as Hunt Ball – ‘he wouldn’t get the trip even in the back of Charlie Slater’s cab’. I suspect as well, that rather like Hunt Ball, Walkon is running on the insistence of the owner rather than what the trainer thinks. Although they do have that privilage, of course, because he who pays the piper plays the tune.

I love these GN stats. The latest one is that none, that’s none, I say none, of the last 11 winners had won more than a third of the chases they had contested. If they win too many, the moral of that trend is surely, they get too much weight!

 

Sir Barney old chap, you don't have to be an out and out stayer to win the National.

 

Agree

 

I agree yes in the old days it was plodders and handicappers, nowdays you have got multiple group 1 winners gold cup winners and the like .But you still have to be well handicapped and in a big field you need lots of luck, so I don't dismiss the big priced horses.

 

This Henderson horse was receiving a stone to Walkon in the Topham and beat him 3/4 length everyone was talking this horse up as the National winner and now Walkons in receipt of 7 pounds and Wayne Hutchinson rides which is a plus. As for Barneys suggestion its only running for the owners day out is rubbish, Alan King is a top trainer he wouldn't allow this I don't care who pays the bills.

 

I think we have decided that picking the Grand National winner is ruddy tough!!

 

That's exactly my thinking Oddy and at 50/1 I'm on ew.

 

Well I hadn't even realised Walkon was entered but having had a look he is certainly very well in. Good spot.

 

I've had a tenner each way on Pineau De Rea for the good Sr. Because why the hell not. 20/1.

 

I feel we could have a bit of a coup coming off here and we'll all lay it and the bookies might start sh#tting themselves, but anyway its nice to have a bit of banter with the chaps just like the old days.