The Fighting Fifth Saturday 30th November

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tward07

Well-Known Member
Jan 2, 2013
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Although a couple of other principals havent been declared this looks set to be a cracker that could really shake up the Champion hurdle market.

A few of the names on show are:

My Tent Or Yours
Melodic Rendezvous
Puffin Billy
Cotton Mill
Grumeti

I have mentioned this before, Melodic Rendezvous was my Supreme pick prior to picking up an injury a couple of days before the race. I think he looks an absolute class act and shows that class when carrying top weight in a grade 2 handicap last time out. Travelled way most of the way, and although made a couple of errors near the business end still managed to win going away at the end. My only issue is the ground, i would like it to be soft on Saturday however whenever he has run on Good to soft he has still won. Comes here race fit.

My Tent or Yours had a great season, just pipped in the Supreme and that form has stacked up especially well. Hendersons runners have struggled first time out so far with Long Run and Bobs Worth a couple of the big hitters worth mentioning. Im also not too sure how much he will find off the bridle and if it comes to it this time i may well be proved wrong.

Puffin Billy to me is the biggest danger here. MR cruised to a victory in a grade 1 over him last season but he was found to be injured after the race. If you watch the Supreme Puffin Billy was going aswell as the leaders 4 out and the group had started to pull away however he made a mistake at the 3rd last and then a terrible error at the 2nd last which all but ruined his race. If he had jump them well enough i have no doubt he would have been in the mix. You can scrub out the last run, upped in trip and made plenty of mistakes on the way round. This should be his trip and a very interesting runner at a big price.

Cotton Mill has been beat by the 2 market principals whilst receiving weight and its impossible to think he will turn that form around any time soon.

Grumeti is interesting. Grade 1 winner and finished 3rd in the JCB over 18 months ago. Tried to carry top weight in the Scottish Champion Hurdle on reappearance last season having been off injured but didnt quite have the legs at the finish. If fully fit it would not surprise me to see him challenging but wouldnt be rushed into backing him at current prices.

Bet:

Melodic Rendezvous - Win
Puffin Billy - Each way
 
Good renewal of a race which has thrown up some surprises in recent years - Melodic Rendezvous for me, has done absolutely nothing wrong and Cockney Sparrow might be worth an e/w dabble if 8 or more run - she gets the 7lbs mares allowance.
 
MTOY should have to much for these if he is to challenge for the Champion hurdle this season. Ran in what I think was a very strong Supreme last season and only just failed to get past Champagne Fever. Took 2/1 on MTOY a few weeks back.

Best of luck all <cheers>
 
Can&#8217;t see beyond My Tent or Yours, personally, and he would also, at this stage, be my idea of the most likely winner of the &#8216;Champion Hurdle&#8217; crown in March.

However, would I want to get involved at current odds of 8/11 for Saturday&#8217;s race. No I bally well would not! Hendo&#8217;s horses are very &#8216;in and out&#8217; at the moment and I don&#8217;t think anyone has truly gauged the &#8216;needle levels&#8217; of his runners yet this term. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...

As for Melodic Rendezvous. His Winkers form was somewhat let down last weekend by Mr Nicholls&#8217; Far West. The presence of the name &#8216;Oliver Sherwood&#8217; next to Puffin Billy&#8217;s is enough to put me of that one, big time. For me the danger would be Alan King&#8217;s Grumeti. Very high class juvenile hurdler he looks a decent opponent for the favourite.
 
The only one of these who'll shake up the Champion Hurdle market is the Tent, the rest aren't good enough frankly, but as been stated above Nicky's aren't exactly firing on all cylinders are they. Some would suggest some horses are out to 'win' others are 'Betfair runners out to lay' but as the stable is of the highest levels of honesty and integrity then those accusations are undoubtedly unfounded as Mr Henderson has never been found guilty of any wrongdoing has he <whistle>
 
His biggest &#8216;crime&#8217; in my opinion is taking tax payers money to pay the training fees of one of his intended runners on Friday. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...

Doesn&#8217;t look as if Puffin Billy will be Newcastle bound. He&#8217;s been declared to run tomorrow at Newbury (3.15).
 
There's actually not that much between Melodic Rendezvous and MTOY on a line through Cotton Mill. I'm yet to be convinced that the Supreme was such a hot race, but Saturday will give us a much better idea. At the prices currently offered, Melodic Rendezvous is the clear value.
 
Couldn't help but be impressed with Melodic Rendezvous FTO, granted the form of beating Far West (even though he was giving weight away to Far West) doesn't seem to look top drawer considering Far West's last run. Saying that though if Melodic Rendezvous was trained by either Hendo or Nicholls, i feel it would prob be FAV for this. Very intriguing race to say the least and will be a great measure of Melodic Rendezvous's CH credentials. I've already gone out on a limb with regards MTOY, so can't go back on that, even if it doesn't win on Sat i could see it romping the xmas hurdle @ Kempton (Ideal flat track bully). Furthermore, i could see it go off FAV for CH but in the heat of battle won't stand the pressure, as shown in the Supreme.
 
Bostonbob said:
Why aren't you sure about the Supreme Oddy?
Click to expand...

Champagne Fever hasn't advertised the form - one dismal run in Ireland over hurdles and he's now off chasing.
MTOY won a very weak looking Grade 2 at Aintree (albeit in good style but even the handicapper dropped him 4 lbs for it)
Jezki won the Punchestown race where Champagne Fever flopped - 2nd placed Ted Veale was slammed in the Galway Hurdle off 144 next time out. The Grade 2 Jezki won the other week was also a very poor contest.
4th placed Un Atout won a neck from Ubak next time out in a 3-runner affair.

With the possible exception of MTOY's Aintree performance (and again I stress, that field did not have any strength to it), nothing has come out of the Supreme and made you go "wow" form-wise.

I think folks are too quick to dismiss Melodic Rendezvous Wincanton form because Far West was beaten next time out. However, if you read what connections said after Haydock I think it is telling: ""I think we just have to write it off. He travelled up to Haydock on Friday and staying away from home didn't suit him at all. When he went out onto the track for exercise on Saturday morning, he got himself into a bit of a state and he'd run his race before the start."

I'd certainly have MR and MTOY more closely matched in the betting, that's why I think MR is the value choice at the moment.
 
Class is class in my view and My Tent or Yours in this for me. Melodic Rendezvous will give him something to think about but My Tent or Yours looks an awesome horse and as people have said above likely to be Champion Hurdle winner in my opinion. It also seems he is taking the same route as Darlan did and wouldnt it be fitting if he does win the Champion and a kind of tribute to Darlan also who's career was tragically cut short.

I believe Champagne Fever is a top top horse and had MTOY settled better in the Supreme he may have lowered champagne colours...
 
Yeah some good points made but I do think it is telling McCoy is up at Newcastle to ride MTOY, he was being talked about as the Champion Hurdle horse last season and he has looked visually impressive in a couple of his races. I remember watching his Newbury race last season and he just oozed class. I can see the same thing on Saturday, he'll come there crusing, McCoy with his hands full, Melodic Rendezvous will challenge and he'll scoot clear winning by a cosy 3 lenghts or so ...!
 
I probably also have an irrational dislike of MTOY because I happened to lump on him when he got beat by Chatterbox, when given a shocker of a ride from McCoy <laugh> (pulling him up for the best part of 2 miles before asking him to quicken after the last on bottomless ground <doh>)
 
Tent is the one to avoid at Newcastle and back at Kempton for the Christmas hurdle- absolute speedball.. Hendo will have him nowhere near 100% just yet...he will come on for the run.

The Supreme will hold up well enough in the end Oddy-Front 4 miles claear and Jezki and Tent both have talent and Un Atout will be a beast of a chaser one day. However, I prefer the Neptune form from last year- bloody good horses lined up in that!
 
OddDog said:
Champagne Fever hasn't advertised the form - one dismal run in Ireland over hurdles and he's now off chasing.
MTOY won a very weak looking Grade 2 at Aintree (albeit in good style but even the handicapper dropped him 4 lbs for it)
Jezki won the Punchestown race where Champagne Fever flopped - 2nd placed Ted Veale was slammed in the Galway Hurdle off 144 next time out. The Grade 2 Jezki won the other week was also a very poor contest.
4th placed Un Atout won a neck from Ubak next time out in a 3-runner affair.

With the possible exception of MTOY's Aintree performance (and again I stress, that field did not have any strength to it), nothing has come out of the Supreme and made you go "wow" form-wise.

I think folks are too quick to dismiss Melodic Rendezvous Wincanton form because Far West was beaten next time out. However, if you read what connections said after Haydock I think it is telling: ""I think we just have to write it off. He travelled up to Haydock on Friday and staying away from home didn't suit him at all. When he went out onto the track for exercise on Saturday morning, he got himself into a bit of a state and he'd run his race before the start."

I'd certainly have MR and MTOY more closely matched in the betting, that's why I think MR is the value choice at the moment.
Click to expand...

Good stuff Oddy. I like the analysis if you break it down in black and white you are bob on. I think Champagne Fever wins the Arkle this season so can't agree and also think MTOY and Jezki will win grade ones (although not at Cheltenham).
 
I think the Supreme v Neptune debate is very interesting and I think both are well above standard renewals. Perhaps Sundays Hatton's Grace, probably the race of the weekend, will shine a little light on the respective strength as Bob points out with Jezki v Rule the World. However the 2.5 mile trip should suit the later horse and if does Jezki come out on top I think there can be little doubt that the Supreme form is stronger. I also think the fact the favourite Pont Alexandre underwhelmed in the Neptunes takes a slight gloss off it too.

Supreme's form for me lads I reckon :bandit:
 
Couldn't resist putting this up - Fighting Fifth memories from years past, Harchibald cantering all over Inglis Drever up the run-in, and good old Graham Goode commentating. Enjoy, I fooking looves it <laugh> Paul Carberry what a dude.

[video=youtube;7khg4nBLqnY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7khg4nBLqnY[/video]
 
Good old Harchibald eh :) I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea but I did have a soft spot for the old boy. He had breathing problems which partly explains the very exaggerated head carriage he had and also partly why he found 'less than expected' when the push came to shove...If ever a horse and a jockey were a match made in heaven it truly was Harchibald and Paul 'arse in the air' Carberry :smile:
 
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