Following a conversation with an owner chappie I vaguely know at last year's festival I made a vow not to bother with handicaps races at Cheltenham. His rationale was that unless you're in the know you've no chance as you need something with at least 10lb worth of improvement in it. The trouble is I do like solving a puzzle and am drawn like a moth to a flame to the big field handicaps. The way I see it there are 2 types to look for. Firstly younger horses which have not been fully exposed and secondly horses who have been campaigned to get an attractive mark (Beuna Vista and the Somerset rogues spring to mind in recent times) . A third and preferred option is those that meet both criteria! My only offering so far would be Son of Flicka in the County Hurdle who clear fits the second category. Previous winner in 2012 when landing a monster gamble for the McCain yard and now back to a similar mark. His new trainer (Coyle) has been fairly clear that this is his target and that he's been campaigned over fences to keep his hurdle rating down. In handicap terms he's no spring chicken which is a negative but with the weather set fair he'll get his ground. He has also run well in defeat recently which confirms to me he's ready to run a big race. So forumites where are the handicap good things?
Attaglance in the Novice Handicap Chase. This race is always tight on the handicap and I think that gives us an interesting angle in which we can be with Attaglance to repeat his good course form, and running from within the handicap against a less experienced field. His form from earlier in the season stands up, and he is a festival winner in the past. Attractive handicap mark and been well campaigned for competing in a chase at the festival.
If Legacy Gold gets in to the Martin Pipe, I'm convinced that she's got a fair few pounds in hand. Maybe that 10lbs you need. New Years Eve is another that someone mentioned on here the other day and it sounded very convincing, I had high high hopes for that one not too long ago.
As I’ve said on the other thread the 2 that I’ve got on in the handicaps this morn are SADLER'S RISK (25/1, Pertemps Final) and old boy CHANGING THE GUARD (33/1, Grand Annual). The latter has been laid out for the heat and has deliberately not raced over fences since August in order to protect his attractive perch. Last summer he won twice at God’s own racecourse, Newton Abbot, before running an excellent race against some classy types at Galway. A recent spin over hurdles will put him spot on for the Festival’s ‘lucky last’. The former was a very useful horse on the level and as a juvenile hurdler. Moved across the water to Henry De Bromhead in November has had one run over hurdles this term when an eyecatching 7th in a qualifier for Final. Has the class and the ability to go very close off 145 here.
Handicaps are usually tricky. Festival handicaps are a nightmare! On two in the County - Vibrato Valtat at 25-1 - I loved his win over Tiqris LTO and old fav Cheltenian at 16-1. My fancy for the Supreme last year, where he was beaten roundly, but he has been very lightly raced - 2 years off the track after his Champion bumper win in 2011 - and ran a good race in 4th behind Splash of Ginge in the Betfair, doesn't seem to be ground dependant and I think he will run a good race
