Off Topic The EU debate
- Thread starter Commachio
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If anybody is interested in the polling details here is an analysis taken from last nights UK Polling Report on the most recent polls.
There are three polls in tomorrow morning’s papers – ORB in the telephone, YouGov in the Times and a NatCen poll in the Financial Times.
YouGov for the Times has topline figures of REMAIN 42%(-2), LEAVE 44%(+1), Don’t know or Won’t vote 13%, conducted between Friday and Sunday. While Leave nudge ahead of Remain again, YouGov continue to show an extremely close race (and it confirms the narrowing of the race from the seven point Leave lead they had a week ago).
ORB’s poll is reported in the Telegraph as showing Remain “surging back into the lead” with figures of Remain 53%(+5), Leave 46%(-3). These figures are based on only those certain to vote however, and ORB have previously suggested that they regard their figures for all voters as their primary measure. On those figures the movement is in the other direction – REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 47%(+3).
Thirdly there is a NatCen poll. Full details of the NatCen poll were embargoed until midnight, but Reuters have the topline figures here. Headline voting intention is REMAIN 53%, LEAVE 47% – but it’s important to note that the fieldwork is very old, conducted between May 16th and June 12th, with two thirds of the fieldwork done before May 26th.
This means the NatCen poll is of limited use in measuring current support, but is an interesting methodological experiment. The poll was conducted online by recontacting people who took the randomly sampled British Social Attitudes Survey, making it effectively a small randomly recruited online panel (people who couldn’t be contacted online were interviewed by phone instead, taking several weeks over the fieldwork to maximise response rate). Random recruitment of online panels is often suggested as a potential way forward for polling, though it’s not necessarily a panacea (in the States Pew already have a randomly recruited online panel called the American Trends Panel, but when they benchmarked it on how representative it was compared to commercial online panels recruited from volunteers and it ended up mid table).
Looking back at other polling at about the time the NatCen poll was conducted, online polls were showing an average Remain lead of about two points, telephone polls were showing an average lead of about twelve points, so the six point Remain lead is somewhere inbetween the two.
The Natcen fieldwork took place between the significant shift towards Leave we saw at the start of June, and obviously before the possible movement back towards Remain in recent days. In the Reuters article NatCen are quoted as saying that responses moved towards Leave over the fieldwork period, though it’s not possible to tell if that was changing opinions or harder to reach people being more Leave. Slightly counter-intuitively it also says that people who answered the survey online were more Remain than people who answered by phone – though that could easily be because people who couldn’t take the survey online were older or poorer.
There are three polls in tomorrow morning’s papers – ORB in the telephone, YouGov in the Times and a NatCen poll in the Financial Times.
YouGov for the Times has topline figures of REMAIN 42%(-2), LEAVE 44%(+1), Don’t know or Won’t vote 13%, conducted between Friday and Sunday. While Leave nudge ahead of Remain again, YouGov continue to show an extremely close race (and it confirms the narrowing of the race from the seven point Leave lead they had a week ago).
ORB’s poll is reported in the Telegraph as showing Remain “surging back into the lead” with figures of Remain 53%(+5), Leave 46%(-3). These figures are based on only those certain to vote however, and ORB have previously suggested that they regard their figures for all voters as their primary measure. On those figures the movement is in the other direction – REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 47%(+3).
Thirdly there is a NatCen poll. Full details of the NatCen poll were embargoed until midnight, but Reuters have the topline figures here. Headline voting intention is REMAIN 53%, LEAVE 47% – but it’s important to note that the fieldwork is very old, conducted between May 16th and June 12th, with two thirds of the fieldwork done before May 26th.
This means the NatCen poll is of limited use in measuring current support, but is an interesting methodological experiment. The poll was conducted online by recontacting people who took the randomly sampled British Social Attitudes Survey, making it effectively a small randomly recruited online panel (people who couldn’t be contacted online were interviewed by phone instead, taking several weeks over the fieldwork to maximise response rate). Random recruitment of online panels is often suggested as a potential way forward for polling, though it’s not necessarily a panacea (in the States Pew already have a randomly recruited online panel called the American Trends Panel, but when they benchmarked it on how representative it was compared to commercial online panels recruited from volunteers and it ended up mid table).
Looking back at other polling at about the time the NatCen poll was conducted, online polls were showing an average Remain lead of about two points, telephone polls were showing an average lead of about twelve points, so the six point Remain lead is somewhere inbetween the two.
The Natcen fieldwork took place between the significant shift towards Leave we saw at the start of June, and obviously before the possible movement back towards Remain in recent days. In the Reuters article NatCen are quoted as saying that responses moved towards Leave over the fieldwork period, though it’s not possible to tell if that was changing opinions or harder to reach people being more Leave. Slightly counter-intuitively it also says that people who answered the survey online were more Remain than people who answered by phone – though that could easily be because people who couldn’t take the survey online were older or poorer.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
Latest odds if anybody is interested in having a bet.
Latest odds if anybody is interested in having a bet.
One thing that strikes me is, no matter which way we go, there is going to be 50% of the population (minus a couple of %) unhappy - and that isn't healthy. The polls are so close, that Britain is clearly a divided country. I don't know what the answer is, but that situation isn't good.
One thing I've said from the start, is that if my vote ends up counting for nothing, then I won't dwell on it, we have to move on with what we have decided.
Yup this has been a point I've been making, if we do vote to stay in then there has to be massive changes and strip the EU back to the free market only
What is healthy is that in this country everyone accepts the result of the vote, irrespective of the rights or wrongs of the system. There'll be no riots on the streets on Friday whichever way it goes so that's good enough for me.
That's just one of many reasons why our society is the envy of the world, warts and all!
If. Like im expecting it to. And remain win. Think there will be more tension than if it goes the other way.
There will be if the eu bungs through all the ****e they`ve waiting for until after the vote.
The divide isn't left/right with this as far as I can see, last night we had Labour on opposite sides in that debate. Sadiq the Freak patronising Gisele Stuart like he was ashamed of her for having a ****ing opinion of her own, although that's not surprising really is it?
Plus, we can't burn RAW, he's too nice.
RAW's far too extreme left wing to be nice mate. Somewhere to the left of Trotsky, and then some
Just don't leave an ice-pick lying around
RAW's far too extreme left wing to be nice mate. Somewhere to the left of Trotsky, and then some
Just don't leave an ice-pick lying around
But he's not bothering anybody is he? Or is he?
Is he knocking on doors down his street to make sure they're recycling every last piece of rubbish... REPORT!!! Report this man, I just watched him put a ring pull in the black 'everything' bin... 500 years in prison for him
Yes, but that's always been the case. Back in late-medieval times, there were less religious executions in Britain than in France, Spain or Italy. Much is made of the British 'persecutions', but compared to France, for example, they were trivial (30.000 Huguenot Protestants were butchered on the streets of France in one single day [St. Barrholomew's Day Massacre]). So yes, we are somewhat civilised about such things.
But the anti-EU friction has torn this country apart for 40 years now, and it would be naive, I think, to imagine it's all going to vanish tomorrow night. The next step is either a dramatic swing to UKIP or to Labour, i.e. a party dedicated to overturning the referendum result or a party who couldn't win an election since 2010. Either way, we're not looking at 'peace and light' overnight
It's just said on the news that the Sunderland and Newcastle results will be first in, just after midnight. A leave vote is expected in the North East 