The EU debate - Part III

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Everyone who trades in the world markets takes into account what they know about the future. What they thought they knew changed abruptly as the referendum result was announced. If you look at the GBP/USD chart for that evening you can see the value of GBP rise as the exit poll showed a majority for staying in and then drop like a stone when it became clear from the early results that Leave was going to win.

A 52:48 result is hardly clear. That is effectively a coin toss on the outcome.
That is why the "markets" were laughed at for the morons they are, for pushing GBP up
with so little information AND a-priori info from Exit about their confidence in their poll.
 
To explain, markets always anticipate, it's their nature. There's an old saying, 'but the rumour, sell the fact'.

They react wildly when data or, as in this case important results, are out of line with expectations.

Whilst markets were anticipating a narrow remain win and had positioned themselves accordingly, as Power says, as soon as it became apparent which way the result was headed they very quickly turned negative and sold.

As the day progressed, it was an easy one way bet for them to just keep selling. Very little risk, sell or go short, and wait.
 
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Reported racist incidents up 41% since the vote suggests that racist **** wits have been encouraged or emboldened by the out result...this was the major reason I voted in. I could see many reasons to vote out (I agree with a lot of the arguments put by socialists and the RMT union tbh) but decided that the risk of a significant rise in racism was not worth it.
And before this gets misunderstood... I am not calling everyone who voted out a racist.
The slump in the pound, the rise in racist incidents, the risk of inflation and the possibility of another Scottish referendum suggests we have quite a fractured society that does not know how to heal itself
 
Reported racist incidents up 41% since the vote suggests that racist **** wits have been encouraged or emboldened by the out result...this was the major reason I voted in. I could see many reasons to vote out (I agree with a lot of the arguments put by socialists and the RMT union tbh) but decided that the risk of a significant rise in racism was not worth it.
And before this gets misunderstood... I am not calling everyone who voted out a racist.
The slump in the pound, the rise in racist incidents, the risk of inflation and the possibility of another Scottish referendum suggests we have quite a fractured society that does not know how to heal itself

To be fair, it's a rise in 'recorded' incidents, and it coincides with a change in the way Police record incidents.

Not all of the previous allegations turned out to be anything to do with race or the referendum. One that springs to mind was damage to a series of foreign owned shops, which turned out to be robberies and the ethnicity was irrelevant.

Not saying it hasn't increased, only that like many things, there's more to it than simple face value.
 
Everyone who trades in the world markets takes into account what they know about the future. What they thought they knew changed abruptly as the referendum result was announced. If you look at the GBP/USD chart for that evening you can see the value of GBP rise as the exit poll showed a majority for staying in and then drop like a stone when it became clear from the early results that Leave was going to win. The value of the GBP is now heavily related to the details of the Brexit process.

And I would argue it shows the weakness of the system.
 

Nothing to do with Brexit. Just allegations. etc etc etc

To be fair, it's a rise in 'recorded' incidents, and it coincides with a change in the way Police record incidents.

Not all of the previous allegations turned out to be anything to do with race or the referendum. One that springs to mind was damage to a series of foreign owned shops, which turned out to be robberies and the ethnicity was irrelevant.

Not saying it hasn't increased, only that like many things, there's more to it than simple face value.

Next week's lottery numbers are....:biggrin:
 
Sorry, but that's nonsense.

What is happening to the U.K. Economy and its currency is directly related to the current Brexit situation.

To try to argue otherwise is ridiculous!...

In your opinion.

I've mentioned why I disagree in a number of replies, as have others. I'll try to pull them into one reply later.

For now, it's the fact that we haven't yet brexited and some are reacting which shows part of the weakness.
 
In your opinion.

I've mentioned why I disagree in a number of replies, as have others. I'll try to pull them into one reply later.

For now, it's the fact that we haven't yet brexited and some are reacting which shows part of the weakness.
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And I would argue it shows the weakness of the system.
Your comment is so vague as to be unhelpful.
If we are going to have any form of capitalism then a market where people can managed their currency risk is essential. If such a market exists people will try to understand what causes currency movements. Taking your country out of a successful trading bloc for populist reasons is hardly likely to make people think of future success!
 
In your opinion.

I've mentioned why I disagree in a number of replies, as have others. I'll try to pull them into one reply later.

For now, it's the fact that we haven't yet brexited and some are reacting which shows part of the weakness.[/QUOTE

As I've pointed out, markets anticipate, it's their nature.

Both markets and business are quite clearly signaling that they're very concerned about Brexit, and particularly its terms - which given May's current rhetoric looks like a hard exit with no trade agreement.

If you can't see the blindingly obvious, then you're deluding yourself!'
 
Your comment is so vague as to be unhelpful.
If we are going to have any form of capitalism then a market where people can managed their currency risk is essential. If such a market exists people will try to understand what causes currency movements. Taking your country out of a successful trading bloc for populist reasons is hardly likely to make people think of future success!
populist reasons?
you mean so that the country can make their own decisions?
 
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