The Epsom Derby - June 4th 2022

Interesting to see that the horses who finished a place in front and a place behind Cresta, at Chester, remain in the 21 strong field. As I've detailed above I wonder if they will be tempted to supplement...

The final line-up for the Cocked Hat Stakes (7 runners) is out. Lysander's opportunity to state his case.

 

More money for Lysander this morning. Blue across the board again, right now, on Oddschecker. Currently, a best priced 33/1 (and that price available with just one bookmaker). As low as 20/1 in several places.

No idea how he will get on, of the morrow, but certainly seems to be, terrible cliche alert, the 'talking horse' amongst the outsiders at the min. Also makes you wonder how short Lysander would go should he romps home in the Cocked Hat...

 

Troy was having his 2nd run of the year, having won the Sandown Classic Trial. Lysander is having his 2nd run of the year, but Troy was a fine 2yo winning twice and finishing 2nd in the Royal Lodge. Lysander may win the Cocked Hat (Predominate when Troy won it) but still has to overcome the fact that 95%+ of Derby winners ran as 2yos.

 

Still think despite his Lingfield defeat that Walk Of Stars is a Derby colt

The 16-1 each way is not bad value

 

I reckon only 2 more, which I think agrees with you. Looking at the Queen's mares she has one Galileo yearling. In 2021 she had two mares booked into Galileo and although both undertook the conjugal act with him, both were later covered by other Coolmore stallions, Australia and Wootton Basset.

 

I see that connections are still saying that The Derby is more than a possibility for Lysander despite him finishing only 3rd (albeit beaten just 0.75 l) in the Cocked Hat. Bookie chappies very divided re this one for Epsom, incidentally, with anything from 16/1 to 50/1 quoted.

Lionel won the race and his connections now getting plenty of flak for withdrawing him from The Derby earlier in the week. David Menuisier though equally vocal in his response. Insisting they made the right call.

Meanwhile, I see that Desert Crown and Stone Age now very, very close in the market - 9/4 and 5/2. Maybe a market is needed on who will end up favourite, come 'tapes up', at Epsom!!!

 

I think Menuisier was dead right in saying you need a 'grown-up' to win at Epsom. In those few words he encapsulated the main reason why unraced 2yos seldom win the Derby (2-3 years ago it took this BOF several pages to say much the same).

 

The market seems to have this about right; it looks like a toss up between the front two in the betting, dependingwho is the better value on the day. With Changingoftheguard worth a saver at his current price or thereabouts.

 

The key event in the betting market these past 48 hours, or so, seems to be Desert Crown shortening (now a general 7/4 shot) and Stone Age lengthening (as big as 7/2).

Meanwhile, anyone expecting to see anything other than Nations Pride added to the Derby field of the morrow???? As I've said, a few times, I'd love to see Cresta run but doubt it will happen.

The excellent Tom Marquand, incidentally, booked for Sonny Liston - who finished a place behind Cresta. last time out, at Chester.

 

I'm on Sonny Liston 40/1 e/w. I hope he runs.

 

Half expecting a last minute jockey change on Saturday, with Lester on the favourite

 

Of all the Dante field none looked fitter and more well than Masekela. I always find it difficult to judge a grey but there was no doubting his muscled appearance. He was even attracting money just before the off as his price on the boards reduced from 20s to 14-1. Unfortunately he then tried to climb out of the stalls and was withdrawn.
Surprisingly he was not scratched from the Derby and will run on Saturday. Unsurprisingly he's a 50-1 shot. His form is not bad. His best run is probably judged to be his close 2nd to Native Trail in the Superlative Stakes in July last year. He also beat Bayside Boy in the Washington Singer. He was beaten 5lengths by Coroebus when that horse was 2nd in the Royal Lodge. So he's a little behind the best. Because of his Dante behaviour he's only run once this year when favourite for the Fielden Stakes back in April but he was beaten by Eydon. At that time Balding's horses weren't in great form.
A problem is that he's by a son of Scat Daddy, El Kebier, who never won over further than 9f. Then again he probably never ran over further than 9f. Scat Daddy sired Justify who took the Triple Crown. On the dams' side he traces back to a couple of Moller mares, Mitraille (a White Lodge Stud root mare bought from Lord Astor) and Whitefoot. It's the family of Full Dress, who won the 1000G for the Mollers but whom had a staying pedigree. There are a few miler sires in the bottom half but these are balanced out by the damsire Doyen.
I don't think he'll win the Derby but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a decent race for his sporting owners. If he does get home he might get near a place. I wish him and them luck.

 

Been declared, and 18-1 now with four places

 

Finished tailed off,stopping very quickly

The Appleby Epsom classic horses ran way below expectations

 

Well he did run a good race and finished a clear 4th beating all those Coolmore and Godolphin types. I did have a little EW and it must have been a nice result for the owners.

 

Not going to enter in to the Derby value spat on the Saturday thread. But if Coolmore and Godolphin scatter bomb a race as they did on Saturday there's always extra value to be had if the winner's elsewhere.