The Derby 13

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F

Flyingbolt

Member
May 10, 2011
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Four taken out this morning - as they'd said Roderic O'Connor & Casamento head for France on Sunday; Genius Beast waits for Ascot and the other absentee is Nathaniel!
Carlton House' canter, or fitness test if you like, was satisfactory & they just have to check there's no reaction to it at evening stables.

21-1 CARLTON HOUSE (USA) Sir Michael Stoute
0560-5 CASTLEMORRIS KING Michael Attwater
1-6 MARHABA MALYOON (Ire) David Simcock
16-51 MASKED MARVEL John Gosden
5(1)-2 MEMPHIS TENNESSEE (Ire) Aidan O'Brien (Ire)
114-13 NATIVE KHAN (Fra) Ed Dunlop
5-11 OCEAN WAR Mahmood Al Zarooni
0(1)120-3 PISCO SOUR (USA) Hughie Morrison
01-31 POUR MOI (Ire) Andre Fabre (Fra)
11-31 RECITAL (Fra) Aidan O'Brien (Ire)
212-2 SEVILLE (Ger) Aidan O'Brien (Ire)
21123-1 TREASURE BEACH Aidan O'Brien (Ire)
61-13 VADAMAR (Fra) Alain de Royer Dupre (Fra)

As I've said on another post not a line up which gives me the same anticipation as in 2009 when Sea The Stars; Fame And Glory & Rip Van Winkle were at the head of affairs but until its over and the horses move on we'll not know if its a good or bad one?

For me I still have a feeling Mr AOB will be landing the spoils!
 
I think Recital will win. Good form when it got beat this year probably needed run but jockey left it too much to do and was finishing fast.

Has a nice draw and at leats there is some value in it unlike top 2 in betting
 
Fallon is very sweet on Recital, but, as much as I respect his opinion, I wouldn't back him at any price. When he won at Leopardstown, he carried his head to one side and that is never a good sign. The only guarantee about this year's race is that Carlton House will definitely get the trip, but I don't think he's good enough or quick enough to win a Derby. I'm fairly sure that either Seville or Pour Moi will win on Saturday and my preference is for the former.
 
Kentuckyfried, I am a bit confused in regards this idea that Carlton House isn't quick enough, because to me he won a tactical Dante in which Seville got the first run and Carlton House showed more gears to quicken past him off a dawdling pace. If you think that Carlton House lacks the pace, then surely Seville is another that would lack the tactical pace?

I am of mixed views on this race at the minute, because I am unsure as to whether Carlton House will take part and I am also concerned that we may have Native Khan who could be flattered by his Guineas finishing position and we have to work out the relative merits of the Irish and French form. To me Recital was impressive enough, but he did hang badly, but that was put down to the wind (Fallon stated this). He showed a nice change of gear to get to the front, but will he be suited by a true gallop that looks likely to be set here. Pour Moi won a nice race in France, but the trainer struggles with this race and perhaps that form isn't as strong as some of the others.

I am fascinated to see what pans out, but at the minute I am as confused as I am with a 25 runner handicap!
 
KFBC - The more I look at the line up; the trials and back at the Dante I'm tending to agree with you regarding Seville!

Nass - I'm the same re. Carlton House. I'm not 100% he'll stay but looked to have decent enough turn of foot in the Dante from a slow pace? The way I'd see Ballydoyle going mob handed is try and run that turn of foot out of him and test the stamina?

Just regarding the jockey arrangements at Ballydoyle...well what are they?
Are they using Ryan Moore when he's available; if he isn't then Kieron Fallon and if neither then look to Seamie Heffernan; Colm O'Donoghue and Joey O'Brien?
I see Seamie Heffernan rides Misty For Me on Friday but doesn't have a ride at all in the Derby with Christophe Soullimon getting the leg up on Seville again?
 
It will be Christophe Soumillon’s thirtieth birthday on Saturday. Will he become the first Belgian to win the Derby? I do not think he will get too many congratulations from Her Majesty if he does so at Carlton House’s expense.
 
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