The Cricket Thread 2015-16

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Vince, White, Benks, potentially Adams and/or Rod too have presumably been doing a lot of thinking over these past few hours.

Andrew Gale said yesterday that Yorkshire would be interested in setting up a run chase. The problem with that though is that we would almost certainly have to wave goodbye to any chance of getting one or two more bowling points - there surely wouldn't be time to carry on as normal in the search of further first innings wicket, before a run chase is then set up (which would have to start with us smashing a few runs, hence using up even more overs before the run chase itself can begin). We would massively regret those lost bowling points, if the game were to then finish a draw any way.

If we let them game flow, then we leave (in addition to the five batting points we already have) with a certain five extra points, a probable six extra points, a possible seven extra points, and the smallest of small chances of 18 extra points.

If we set something up, then it all likelihood we find ourselves in a 50-50 position of leaving with either no extra points at all, or 16 extra points. The former would mean near certain relegation, with a week to spare. It's possible that we could leave with five extra points.

I don't envy our guys at all with making this decision. Presumably if what Gale and Yorkshire are prepared to set up is heavily, heavily weighted in their favour, then the decision gets made for us and nothing is set up (I assume). Or if the weather intervenes again. But otherwise, it's very much down to us. Take the draw points, try for the extra bonus points, and then bank on everything going our way next week? Or roll the dice to try and win this match, knowing full well that if it lands on the wrong number, then that is 99% that for our time back in D1. A near impossible decision to make, in my book.
 
st_brendy said:
Vince, White, Benks, potentially Adams and/or Rod too have presumably been doing a lot of thinking over these past few hours.

Andrew Gale said yesterday that Yorkshire would be interested in setting up a run chase. The problem with that though is that we would almost certainly have to wave goodbye to any chance of getting one or two more bowling points - there surely wouldn't be time to carry on as normal in the search of further first innings wicket, before a run chase is then set up (which would have to start with us smashing a few runs, hence using up even more overs before the run chase itself can begin). We would massively regret those lost bowling points, if the game were to then finish a draw any way.

If we let them game flow, then we leave (in addition to the five batting points we already have) with a certain five extra points, a probable six extra points, a possible seven extra points, and the smallest of small chances of 18 extra points.

If we set something up, then it all likelihood we find ourselves in a 50-50 position of leaving with either no extra points at all, or 16 extra points. The former would mean near certain relegation, with a week to spare. It's possible that we could leave with five extra points.

I don't envy our guys at all with making this decision. Presumably if what Gale and Yorkshire are prepared to set up is heavily, heavily weighted in their favour, then the decision gets made for us and nothing is set up (I assume). Or if the weather intervenes again. But otherwise, it's very much down to us. Take the draw points, try for the extra bonus points, and then bank on everything going our way next week? Or roll the dice to try and win this match, knowing full well that if it lands on the wrong number, then that is 99% that for our time back in D1. A near impossible decision to make, in my book.
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If Yorkshire declared overnight we'd only need to smash 50 or so runs. Yorkshire wouldn't really fancy chasing much more than 350. I would fancy our chances. We'd get 50 in 5 overs if Hants faced declaration bowling which they surely would. So we'd still have what, 89 overs or so to bowl them out.
 
One thing's for certain, if Warney was still at Hants, they'd be going for it!.
There's no guarantee on the weather next week, all matches could be a washout which would make the decision academic. I would be inclined to do a Nigel Adkins and control the controllables, the forecast for tomorrow is fair, so you have to go out and back yourself to win.
 
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As I say though, it depends on what Yorkshire are willing to put on the table themselves. I would be happy for us to go with Tom's suggestion, but given Yorkshire look a batsman light and know that we're pretty desperate, would they be willing to chase 350 in 89? Might they rather a complete forfeiture from us, and so chase 304 in 96? I'm not convinced that I would be happy with that.

I'm going to assume that neither of the other two games will see any contrived result. Worcs are just about in a position to be able to organically push on themselves and then declare (whether Durham then decide to chase the target they are set is another matter). And I suspect that both Sussex and Somerset are too afraid of losing (not to mention dropping potentially valuable remaining bonus points) to look into setting anything up in their game.
 
Including bonus points achieved to date, the table currently looks like:

Sussex 151
Somerset 149
Hants 141
Worcs 127

If all remaining bonus points were to be picked up from here, the table would look like:

Sussex 154
Somerset 154
Hants 143
Worcs 127

At the moment (table one), I honestly think that the gap between us and Sussex/Somerset is just about small enough to seriously think about looking for two more bowling points and taking the draw. But then if Somerset were to go and equal the 400 (inside 4 overs) that us and Sussex both achieved, with Sussex also picking up their bowling points, then things wouldn't quite look as good again. There is quite a big difference between a 7 or 8 point gap, and an 11 or 12 point gap, when there is only one game left.
 
st_brendy said:
Including bonus points achieved to date, the table currently looks like:

Sussex 151
Somerset 149
Hants 141
Worcs 127

If all remaining bonus points were to be picked up from here, the table would look like:

Sussex 154
Somerset 154
Hants 143
Worcs 127

At the moment (table one), I honestly think that the gap between us and Sussex/Somerset is just about small enough to seriously think about looking for two more bowling points and taking the draw. But then if Somerset were to go and equal the 400 (inside 4 overs) that us and Sussex both achieved, with Sussex also picking up their bowling points, then things wouldn't quite look as good again. There is quite a big difference between a 7 or 8 point gap, and an 11 or 12 point gap, when there is only one game left.
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But there is a reasonable chance we could get ****ed over by the weather next week given we're in September.
 
But equally it might not. It could be four clear days next week. Sussex could get rolled over at Headingly by a returning Bairstow, Plunkett, Sidebottom and Rashid. Somerset could get involved in another 600 plays 600 bore draw at Taunton, denying them the win points. But if we're well adrift of them both due to gambling tomorrow and having it backfire on us, then it wouldn't matter.

As I say, I'm so pleased it isn't me making the decision tonight/tomorrow, because I honestly can't decide what I would do. I can see a lot of merit in both arguments.
 
There is another to factor to consider, however small. This is Durham's last game of the season - they're the 9th side who miss out next week. Right now they have 172 points. If Worcs bowl them out tomorrow, they therefore finish the season on 172 points. So anyone with 149 points or more going into next week could still catch them.

For us, that means another 6 points or more. Two more wickets, plus five draw points, would give us those 6 points.
 
Nope, ignore me. I was adding 6 points to the 143, not the 141. So we can't catch Durham if we only draw tomorrow.

Another reason to try and win then!
 
The Test and County Cricket Board really need their heads testing for the programming of 3 rounds of Championship matches and the final of the Royal London Cup at this stage of the season. IMO there should be room to play at least 2 lots of back to back 4 day games in the summer thus bringing the end of the season forward by two weeks.
 
It is an almost impossible situation for Hampshire to avoid the drop. IMO the damage was done earlier in the season. This is no time to be playing catch-up! So can Hampshire do a Lancashire and get back at the first time of asking next season? Division 1 looks very strong next season with the promotion of Surrey and Lancashire.
 
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