The first rule of Cheltenham punting is to treat Aintree form with the utmost suspicion. I think it is safe to say that Zarkandar's Aintree run can be confidently ignored, for example. That is another slight doubt I have about Spirit Son. His reputation is based largely on his highly impressive demolition job at Aintree. I always think that form can be a little suspect but it clearly reads well if taken literally with Rock On Ruby back in 3rd.
Agreed Zen - I was just playing devil's advocate and it was 2m4f at Aintree. I just can't make friends with Zarkandar for some reason. In the Triumph I thought Jacobs was pushing away as much as anybody after the 2nd last and all the way up the straight. If you look at Paul Townend on Unaccompanied or Barry Geraghty on Grandouet they are pretty motionless coming off the final bend and I almost think Zarkandar got first run on them, funny as that may sound. He was past them at the last and away before either horse could really respond. To be fair he did pull away up the hill but was that stamina kicking in? We know he gets 2m4f, whereas Unaccompanied and Grandouet look like pure 2 milers. However good PN thinks Zarkandar is, and despite breathing ops and whatever, could he get done for toe at the vital stage coming off the final bend (much like Peddlers Cross did last year) by Hurricane Fly?
Funny how we read a race differently. Unaccompanied hit traffic at various points of the race, nothing huge that cost her lengths at any one point but she suffered a very stop/start race for me which can be unsettling. She was in a bunch between 3rd and 2nd last so PT switched inside, she then absolutely flew the 2nd last and PT asked her to pick up and within strides she was up the backsides of the front runners, I wouldn't say PT stopped riding but he certainly didn't ask Unaccompanied to continue with her momentum. She was switched again up the run in and as others have said never looked like catching Zarkander but I think Oddy is correct in saying that the winner got first run. What I liked about the performance is that despite the stop/start nature of how was ridden she galloped all the way to the line and although never catching Zarkander she was pulling away from Grandouet who, until 2 weeks ago, was a quarter of Unaccompanieds Champions Hurdle odds...
I don't think you can say Zarkandar got first run because he was behind the whole lot at the bottom of the hill when the race started in earnest. Although Jacob was pushing away it must be remembered that he is quite active in the saddle. To me he never looked like he was getting serious and I thought he did it very easily. Although there might have been slight excuses for the others (Unaccompanied in particular) I find it impossible to suggest that Zarkandar wouldn't have won anyway. As for him getting outpaced I think he'll be fine. As I said Jacob is very active in the saddle so that can give the impression that the horse is going less well than it actually is. It's particularly apparent because Ruby is the exact opposite. If Ruby was riding Zarkandar I think he would have still be on the steel at the last.
Zen - when I say I agreed that Zarkandar got first run he was at the end of the leading pack, the winning move appeared to be staying on the fence and not going wide with the others as this not only saved ground but also gave him a lane big enough to drive a bus through, when they hit the straight he had barely a length to make up which he did before drifting over to the stands side forcing Unaccompanied to switch - the interference did not cost the mare 2.5 lengths but maybe Jacobs move to the srtay on the inside rail saved Zarkandar 2.5 lengths ? What I find interesting having watched it again is how easy Grandouet was travelling down the hill and quickly he emptied out up the hill - these were 4 year olds and of course they will get stronger but you'd be worried if you've backed Grandouet nonetheless...
My point is that your explanation makes it sound like Zarkandar was a fortuitous winner and my view on the race was that his dominance was all too apparent. He looked easily the best and was comfortably on top throughout. I think the interference with Unaccompanied is not that important. Every time I see the race Zarkandar wins easier and easier. Agree re Grandouet. To me he needed to really sprint away from them in the International and he didn't do that.
I don't believe Zarkandar was a fortuitous winner, I think the move by his jockey made up some distance and there was undoubted interterence for Unaccompanied, both of these elements would have made it a much much closer race, would it have reversed the placings I don't know, I woulld challenge that Zarkandar wins the race easily though. Time will tell how good they all are but it is promising that a good bunch of hurdlers come from a Triumph which hasn't always been th ecase
The Zarkandar debate, is an interesting one. I know it sounds stupid to think a brother of Zarkava could be outpaced over 2m1 but I kind of feel he won the Triumph in a manner that would suggest a step up in trip would suit.* I wouldn't say he won the race like an out and out stayer, but he did look a little outpaced for a while, and seemed to relish the uphill finish. I think the reason Triumph winners tend to flop in the CH, is because they always want further. Horses as they get older tend to lose speed but stay further. So it's very rare that a horse will have enough stamina at 4 to win a triumph, and then enough speed to win the CH a year later, over a slightly shorter trip.* The 5yo stat is another that I dont like, we know Katchit did it, but has there ever been a worse CH winner? I also would question the trainer, whilst PN is the master with chasers, he's never quite mastered the hurdling game. I know BB is the king of the stayers, but he hurdled like a dog, even when he won his first World Hurdle. BBs engine was just so big that he could overcome 3 or 4 pretty serious errors. Obviously nowadays BB hurdles alot slicker, but that's after years of experience.* Over the shorter distance horse's can't afford to be making any errors, i always see it as a last man standing event, such is the standard of the horse's. The only horse's that are in with a shout going to the last, are those that have made no errors.* That brings me to my main point Zarkandar doesn't offer any value in the market, I'm not saying he won't win but I'd tissue him up as more of a 14/1 shot. He is the same price as Spirit Son, and Spirit Son is at the optimum age 6, and is trained by 5 time CH winning trainer Nicky Henderson. A man who knows how to train a horse to put in a perfect round of hurdling, to be in with a shout at the last. So for me Spirit Son is trained by a better trainer and is at a more suitable age. The only reason you could back Zarkandar over him, is if you felt his form was stronger, though I seriously doubt 4yo novice form is stronger than 5,6 and 7yo novice form.* I think people can't help but overrate Zarkandar because of his famous sister. If it wasn't for his sister, I believe he would be almost double his current price*
That is interesting Shergar. You see I think almost the exact opposite, and I do mean that literally. I don't think Zarkandar ever looked outpaced in the Triumph. As I've said Jacob is very active in the saddle so was pushing away but never got serious on him until after the last, and was in fact looking around for dangers between the last two. I take your point about Triumph winners tending to need further but I don't see that being a problem for him. The same argument could be made (and with far greater strength, in my opinion) about Spirit Son. He was obviously outpaced in the Supreme, and then stayed on to take second. He then won over 2m4f at Aintree very impressively. On the back of those efforts it is very easy to argue that he is a horse who needs further than 2m. I am not saying he does, just that the evidence is there to support somebody who thinks he does. I would also agree with the age stat but I hail from the 'stat's are just there to be broken' camp. I am not going to dismiss a horse purely because he is 5 if I would strongly fancy him if he were 6. I accept that it is a slight negative however. Zarkandar hurdles well (apart from one mistake down the back), and I think Nicholls is perfectly capable of training a hurdler. It must be remembered that he had Celestial Halo beaten a 1/4 length back in 2009. It has more to do with ammunition than any lack in skill from the Champion Trainer. I appreciate that Henderson has a good record in the race but again this owes more to the horses that he has had. Henderson finally broke his Gold Cup hoodoo last season, is it time for Nicholls to break his Champion Hurdle hoodoo this year?! I would have Zarkandar shorter than Spirit Son if I were pricing it up. I think his form is stronger (certainly in a hurdling context), he is open to any amount of improvement, the trip and the track look to be ideal, he will enjoy a strongly run race, he hurdles fluently, he has had a breathing operation and so on. I can see both sides of the argument but would come down almost exactly opposite you on most of the points you've made. Isn't horseracing such an interesting and fickle game? Two people who know their stuff coming to two completely valid but opposite conclusions! Edit: I meant to ask that do you not think Spirit Son is so short in the betting because of who he is trained by? Edit 2: Also just had another look at his form and his two previous wins in this country were on soft and heavy ground. Does that further support the argument that he needs further? I'm not sure. I never like to read too much into the weak races where they win regardless of conditions rather than because of them. Still something to consider.
Great write-up Zenyatta I've just watched the replay of Zarkandar winning last year's Triumph....I really don't know what to think. I love reading all your different opinions...it makes for very interesting reading. I looked for the race on Youtube, it's not on there (I had to splash out 20p to watch it on RP) but I did come across the 2010 Triumph Hurdle. Poor Barizan... watch it and weep... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDPuZW8LjmA Sorry for going a bit off topic.
Epona - you can get free replays on Sporting Life - just use their search function. The ones you can't get on there you will find on ATR (need to become a member but its free). Everything from the last 2 or 3 years at least
Epona - sportinglife.com or sky sports website both have racing section, go to the search area and type in a horse as you have to go through a horses form to find a specific race and then the replay.
Thanks OddDog and Grizzly I've actually got quite a bit of money in my Racing Post account because I topped it up before Christmas, ready for Kempton, so I could watch live racing online Then I discovered, about two minutes before the first race, that you can't watch live racing on RP anymore.....I was not a happy bunny
Teh Zarkandar debate is a good one. Can I just ask that we refrain from too much debate for a while, and without wanting to give too much away, the spotlight will be on him very soon *cough cough* But in all seriousness, I think the way to look at it is that his form looks good, he didn't look as stylish as some top hurdlers. But the positives are that his trainer thinks he has come on leaps and bounds, and one of the key attributes of a Champion Hurdler is the ability to win over 2 and a half miles.
Well Topclass I will try to avoid Zarkandar as much as I can, and reply to the points on Spirit Son.* Zenyatta.....Spirit Son may have been slightly outpaced for a stride or 2, but he was dealing with a runaway bumper winner, making a very early bid for home, and Sprinter Sacre, and we all know how fast he is, after he showed Peddlars Cross a clean pair of heels at Kempton, and PC had enough speed to finish runner up in a CH. You also mustn't forget how fast the ground was at Cheltenham last year, it was the fastest festival for years, It is unlikely we will get as fast ground again this year.* It's probably not reliable to say he prefers soft ground, because of a few impressive wins *against donkeys, but the impressive nature of those wins, suggests soft it isn't a problem. If he was a mudlark, he wouldn't have been 2nd in the Supreme, on border line good to firm ground.* The point about the trainer, is a fair one, but you could say the exact same about Zarkandar, let's just say Colin Tizzard had the pair of them(for arguments sake) both would no doubt be around the 16/1 mark, maybe higher. End of the day anything with Henderson or Nicholls next to there name will be shorter because of how good there records as trainers are, but atleast NH has proven winning form in this race, PN on the other hand does not.** I'm not sure PNs poor Champion Hurdle record has anything to do with ammunition, he always has a strong hand in races like the Triumph and the Supreme, but they don't seem to train on into top class hurdlers. His ammunition is certainly no worse than Nicky Hendersons. Some trainers would kill for just one of the*many expensive French recruits Nicholls gets every season.* I think Nicholls ways of training are just more suited to chasing, every trainer has there strong areas and there weak areas, even the top guys. The amount of times you see a Nicholls runner with poor hurdling form, bolt up on there chasing debut, is staggering.* Good luck with any antepost bets your having on Zarkandar. I don't bet antepost, as I like to have see all the cards on the table before I risk any cash. Who knows if he bolts up looking like Istabraq in his reappearance, I might change my mind, but for now I'm with Spirit Son.* It seems NH has indicated Spirit Son and/or Binocular could go over to Ireland for the Irish Champion, surely NH won't want to risk Spirit Son against HF this early. If he does, he must rate him highly.*
Shergs, I think Spirit Son might be a seriously good hurdler. Thought he hurdled with good speed and looked to have a serious engine. We can't really complain about the form of the Supreme last year, the front 4 all really nice horses.
