Very fair comments guys. I had expected him to win further. He showed a much quicker change of gear in his previous two runs and this would have been the fastest ground he's faced thus far. To me, he'd be better off at the head of affairs using his big stride, he lengthens rather than quickens and he's not a horse to be holding onto for a late run. I have seen the opinion about this being an exceptional year for the 2000 Guineas candidates but we have seen Anthony Van Dyck exposed as an unlikely winner and Quorto made a fairly workmanlike job of beating him. Sangarius went from being a "Contender" to a 33/1 in one fell swoop after his flimsy "actual" form was exposed. I had him a stone lower than Too Darn Hot coming into the Dewhurst. Ten Sovereigns looks a sprinter to me but it probably won't stop Aidan forcing him over a mile. Wanting him to be a miler will not help him get another two furlongs in May though. I only got 6/1 on Too Darn Hot for the Guineas because I had backed Calyx at 25/1 and figured the former horse was more of a Derby sort. A saver became essential before the Vintage Stakes, particularly once Gosden became unsure about whether the colt would get beyond 10F next season. Once Calyx picked up an injury, I backed Quorto at 14/1 as a cover bet. I had been hoping to get Persian King at bigger odds but he didn't appear in the lists until he won his second race and I had to take 25/1. I've backed four but hopefully at 6/1, 14/1, 25/1 and 25/1 I have the winner in the quartet and it's encouraging that they now sit 7/4, 8/1, 10/1 and 16/1. It's inevitable that something will have a setback between now and the race. I also have two Gosden horses in there and he has never won the race. Too Darn Hot is from a family that did not take a lot of racing and Gosden has said the colt is unusually precocious for this breeding line. Calyx could be the best of the lot if he can come back, he won the Coventry with more in hand than it looked because of being on the "Wrong" side AND ending up with nothing to race against in the closing stages. I had originally backed Quorto for the Derby at 25/1 but the trainer says he has not even thought about the Epsom Classic for the son of Dubawi. He'd be my third choice at this stage and Persian King just a cover option at decent odds, as a horse I feel sure to improve at 3YO. It's a long winter ahead but I have all the bets done and dusted on the 2000 Guineas and hopefully Ten Sovereigns goes to the Commonwealth Cup, where I fook him at 16/1 before his second start. The problem will be Aidan plotting a route to Newmarket instead, something almost certain to happen with most of his Colts looking Leger types, something that seems to be becoming the norm.
The only Guineas bet ive put on so far is Calyx, his Coventry form was well franked this weekend and interesting comments from Grimthorpe last week that even the emergence of Sangarius had not made up for losing him. I said after the Coventry ill be surprised if we see a better 2yo this season but turned out to be a well above average crop of colts. Class wise, hes could be the only danger to Too Darn Hot. Too Darn Hot, Calyx and Quorto deserve to be top 3 in the betting.
Persian King clocked a decent topspeed personal best of 108 yesterday and his Racing Post rating went up to a personal best of 113. The Racing Post assessor has been clueless on the horse's abilty since his first start. He has had to go back every time and uprate his previous race to make the figures look less ridiculous and this time he uprated his previous start from 102 to 105. Too Darn Hot is clear on 126 on RPRs and I expect the official handicapper to give him 121 or 122 this week.
Cadence is the number of strides taken in a given period of time. For example, if we count the number of strides a horse takes in ten seconds and then compare it to how many strides another horse makes over the same ten second period. If two runners have the same stride length, the runner who can make more strides will cover.. the journey more quickly. If two runners have the same cadence, the runner making the bigger strides will cover the journey more quickly. Extrapolating the data further we can consider whether one cadence rate proves the more efficient at a shorter trip and less efficient at a longer trip and vice versa. The general theory is that a horse who has a fast cadence is unlikely to be able to maintain it over a longer distance, while one covering more ground per stride can have the advantage as stamina becomes the more important factor. I did a piece on Dawn Approach before his run in the Derby and opined that he would not stay the trip. Having watched his races I had noticed that he had a fairly high cadence and was like a car running with the choke out all the way through his races. My opinion was that he needed to race differently in order to have any chance of staying and concluded that the horse would not take kindly to the jockey trying to use him in a different way at Epsom. I felt he might be hard to settle. I never expected my thinking to be proven correct as quickly and dramatically as it was though, when Dawn Approach wrestled with his jockey from the moment the stalls opened. I have never studied it so far as measuring stride lengths etc. It's just a visual impression I take and many other factors also need to be considered as well. I judge every race individually, as I don't feel there are shortcut selection processes that can consistently work for the punter. Hope that helps explain your query.
As with other tools, it is a very useful tool applied correctly. Probably teaching granny to suck eggs but, the length of stride will predominantly be defined by the angle of the shoulder ie a long sloping shoulder, (or well laid shoulder) will enable the horse to reach further. If you take a line through the shoulder and project it to the ground, that is the extent of its reach. Provided the well laid shoulder is balanced with the back end, the horse should be able to cover a lot of ground for the effort expended. This, as you say makes it the better equipped to stay longer distances. To stay the longer distances though the horse needs plenty of heart room, facilitated by a deep chest. Whatever the angles, if the front and rear are not balanced the horse will have to compensate to avoid injury. I won't get too deep but the length of back will also have an effect and a long loin is a weakness. I'll shut up now.
Incidentally Grendel, how does Too Hot to Handle come out on the cadence analysis. It's just that, visually, he appears to have not the best front extension, which is why he is a lay bet in the Derby for me
First let me start by saying how much I enjoy your write ups. I’m also interested in the way horses move. My understanding of cadence is more about expression and rhythm. You can create cadence by developing the gait. Unlike humans horses can have gait in different paces walk,trot,canter and gallop.you create cadence with suppleness engagement to increase suspension. As far as strides covered over distance is concerned this is hard to analyse as all horses like humans are different but this has nothing to do with cadence as far as racehorses are concerned. The only requirement is to go fast.
Increasing suspension in the case of a horse is usually carried out to compensate for a poor front (ie the drive from the back will ram the front feet into the ground if they aren't suspended to keep them off the ground longer)
I suppose I should have explained cadence is the catch all term. It's whether one horse has a faster cadence than another. I don't find it difficult to see whether one horse has a more rapid cadence than another one. A really good example, and one I suggested members of another forum should study was Anodor's win over Persian King when they made their debuts. The Head colt had a much higher "Refresh" rate and that was what won him the race for him over the 7F trip. That race can be viewed here:- http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3371/ Persian King is slower to get rolling from the stalls but as they get to the business end of the race he creeps into contention. However, when Anodor is asked to go and win the race it is noticeable that the colt really quickens his stride rate. Persian King just doesn't have the ability to match that inreased stride rate and loses a crucial few lengths before closing slightly late on. When watching the closing stages I switch from one horse to the other to compare the rate of rise and fall of their forelegs. To my eyes it is clear that Anodor is creating distance between the two of them by dint of increased stride rate. With a view to the future I picked Persian King as the better long term prospect based on physical scope, trainer and the fact that he would be better suited over a mile than Anodor. I don't go by pedigree to assess a horse's ability to stay further. For me it is about trusting your eyes and what you see on the racecourse. Plenty of people said Golden Horn had no chance in the Derby because of his breeding but I had seen nothing to suggest he would not get the 12F trip. The way a horse moves plays a part in whether I think they will be effective at a particular distance and I have found that if you combine the elements of visual evidence you will have a more accurate picture than blindly following the pedigree. I don't think rate of stride will matter much if we are only talking a set distance but when considering a new trip for horses I feel the rate of stride can play a part in whether one horse may have an advantage at the different trip.
I agree pedigree doesn't determine the optimum distance for its progeny; the conformation does (or rather determines the potential, all other requirements being satisfactory). Most pedigrees have stamina and/or speed somewhere along the line and it depends which genes are passed on that determine the conformation. If you have a long line on both sides of the pedigree of horses with "upright " shoulders there is no way one will get a foal with a good layback of shoulder. Which is why careful line breeding (with occasional selected outbreeding) increases the chances of getting what you want. There are so many choppy pedigrees out there that, as you say, you can only get a definite idea by examining the conformation and watching how they race. The conformation only gives you what the horse should be able to achieve but, it will also show you what it can't physically achieve
I remember Guy Harwood talking about Dancing Brave back in 1986 and he said that for all that the Arc winner was considered to have a great turn of foot, the colt actually lengthened his stride well, rather than quickened his rate of striding. Dancing Brave was travelling faster but not because he was making more strides but because he was covering more ground with each stride. If your car can go from 0-60 mph in 8 seconds and your neighbours car goes from 0-60 mph in 12 seconds, you will beat him in a short race but if your car's top speed is 100 mph and your neighbour's car can do 120 mph he will catch you up and pass you as distance increases. Sadly for all of us, some horses can go from 0-20 in 2 miles
If you compare a typical greyhound with a typical afghan hound a greyhound will win over short distances and the longer the distance the more likely the afghan will win. Conformation determines this. Look at a hare running. Great initial speed and quickly tires
But the car doing 0/60 in 8 will probably go further. I do study pedigree. You very rarely get sprinters that stay but you do get stayers that sprint. The July cup is a classic example. A bit to far for some sprinters but middle distance pedigrees that are quick.
But the car doing 0/60 in 8 will probably go further. That totally depends on how long the race is. It could be zero factor. There is no point in having 2 mile stamina if the race is only a mile and a half. It's early days with the Simon Rowlands study as far as I know and it's not a factor that I could see being the reason to favour one horse over another unless it was a very tight pick between the two of them. I believe in considering anything that might give you an edge over other punters, even a small one.
