Yes he' may go for the Champion Hurdle but he's entered for the County too: that's Burdett Road. Doesn't that sentence say everything that's wrong with the Cheltenham 'Festival'? Festival? More a parade.
I see this year's "handicap dark horse / good thing" is now out of the bag with Kopeck De Mee being backed for the Coral Cup, County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe in the NRNB markets. He has the required 5 qualifying runs for a novice to be eligible for festival handicaps and his French form reads 32111 with the final 1 a listed hurdle at Auteuil (for which he earned an RPR of 119). JP has snapped him up and sent him to Closutton: https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...-for-three-cheltenham-handicaps-aoiwH8Q7LPxR/ Now I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at the odds being bandied around, and I'm sure he'll be hammered into favouritism for whichever race he ends up in, but of course the build up to the festival revolves around these stories. The big question though is will he turn out to be a "good thing" like State Man winning the County Hurdle off a mark of 141 or will punters get their fingers burnt as happened with Gaelic Warrior in the Fred Winter - only 2nd to Brazil (ironically owned by JP) off a mark of 129?
A lot of the 'wowness' re Kopeck De Mee seems to centre around what the horse he beat last time out (Zephyr De Beaumont) has gone onto do - namely win at Listed level and finish runner-up in a Grade 1 contest.
Indeed - smashed 9 lengths by the very talented Kingland (who I had hoped we would see at the festival but it appears not). Zephyr De Beaumont now has a RPR of 129 and as he was beaten just over 5 lengths by Kopeck De Mee I think the British Handicapper will be hard pressed to give Kopeck De Mee more than a mid-130s rating. Kingland's RPR is 145 and Kopeck De Mee shouldn't be anywhere near that. So assuming KDM gets somewhere between 134-138 he ought to get into any of the 3 target races.
Just over a week to go, and I have to be honest, I am not one bit excited. I just hope we see Constitution Hill and Gallopin bookend the week. It is what the sport needs.
Get studying the handicaps - good money to be made there. I can give you the Ultima and Pertemps winners
I know Pilgrim usually finds one in the Hunter Chase I can’t say I bother with normally until the day. However I was reading an interesting piece on James Owen and his likely festival horses. I do think he could have a decent festival. What I wasnt expecting was that he’s got Allmankind lined up for the amateur race on Friday. Owen was fairly bullish about his chances following some recent good pointing performances. Not sure there will be many that have taken his career path to the amateur blue riband event. Class horse in the race but I’m far from convinced he wants 3 and a quarter miles and twice up the hill. Still at least he’s having a go.
He is undoubtedly the classiest horse in the race and has run very well in PTPs and I would be lying if I said I wasn't tempted to pick him. The question will be whether he can stand the 3m 2f and above all whether the ground will be bad for him. A couple of days ago, the weather forecast called for heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, but that seems to have changed today. We will have to wait and see. I opted for Music Drive who has also run very well in PTPs and has also done quite well when he ran at Cheltenham. Apart from the favourite, my worries are Ryehill and Rocky's Howya who was my choice in the 2023 (4th) and who seems that after two bad years has returned to run very well. All of the above would be for nothing if Sine Nomine had come back this year to run in the race, but they have insisted on going down the handicap route, and she is going to run in the Kim Muir (or so it seems if the ground isn't Good or Good to Soft).
Owen reckons Allmankind will be bang there at the bottom of the hill. Sadly the rosettes are a stiff uphill hike from there. The article was in the Irish Field. Very interesting in terms of how he’s got to where he has. Some training operation to have the favourite for the Triumph, a decent outsider in the Foxhunters, County Cup entrant who thereafter will be targeted at the Melbourne Cup and a 3yo which has decent ew claims currently for Guineas/Derby. Looking through the Foxhunters field I wonder whether Shearer could pop up for the Nicholls clan.
Tuesday confirmations are out. A few things: The first 2 races could almost be at the DRF with only 2 English runners in the Supreme and 2 in the Arkle. In the Ultima there is a stand-out entry on the stats Lossiemouth still entered in both the mares and Champion Hurdle but Brighterdaysahead scratched from the mares race, for which Joyeuse will be supplemented by Nicky Henderson Beyond Your Dreams remains in the Fred Winter and is guaranteed a run as racecard number 20. Need to have a proper study of the race this evening Anyone got any ideas on the NH Chase?
Generally only do e/w multiples in the handicaps at the festival. Usually a quick way to the poorhouse and many years it has been with a couple of exceptions that have made up for it. The ones that I have been including since NRNB are; Happygolucky in the Ultima also have Broadway boy and Malina's Girl in a few Hot Fuss in the Fred Winter - had Wendrock but since the weights have written him off Gericault Roque in the National Hunt
