The race is shaping up nicely with just over a month to go. Here the current odds with Bet365: Silvinicao Conti 3 Many Clouds 8 Road To Riches 8 Carlingford Lough 10 Holywell, Lord Windemere, Coneygree 12 Bobs Worth, Djakadam 14 Shutthefrontdoor, Smad Place, On His Own 16 20/1 Bar After Silivinaco Conti and Road To Riches advertised their claims over the Christmas period, we have since seen a number of impressive performances from horses who look to be real contenders. Many Clouds victory in the Cotswold Chase was all about guts and stamina, the Hennessy winner staying on too strongly for Smad Place and Dynaste. Carlingford Lough swept past Lord Windemere and Foxrock for a classy victory in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown yesterday. Djakadam showed that he continues to progress with a dominant display off top weight in the Thyestes Chase. The novice Coneygree ran away with the Denman Chase at Newbury with a devastating round of jumping from the front and in a time just 6.6 seconds above standard on soft ground. The debate will no doubt rage from now until the RSA declarations as to whether Coneygree should take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or stick to the novice race. For what it's worth, I think he must go to the Gold Cup after such a display in the Denman Chase. "Carpe Diem" as they say ............................
Having just seriously gone through this race this morning I'm leaning towards Many Clouds, his run last time at Cheltenham is very solid form. With the likes of Smad Place, Dynaste and The Giant Bolster all being decent markers. The only concern for him would be if it dried up to much. Good to soft and I'd still back him. Silviniaco Conti is the class horse in the race, but I think 3m2 at Cheltenham blunts his turn of foot, I think he is better suited to other races. If they where to go really slow he would have a shout, but I don't see it happening with so many runners. This is his 3rd attempt at the Gold Cup, so you'd have to be very brave to take 3/1 after he's failed twice already. Most Gold Cup winners win it at there first attempt. Lord Windemere has a shout, as I think it's fair to say he should just be judged on his Cheltenham runs. However both his wins at the Festival have looked very suspect from a form point of view. Taking advantage from Boston Bobs fall in the RSA, and winning a bunched finish last year in the Gold Cup, in what probably was one of the weakest Gold Cups ever with On His Own and The Giant Bolster narrowly denied. So surely something is going to be able to run to a higher level in this race. Hollywell is the talking horse thanks to price wise, but I think hes going to have to show more than winning a handicap off of 145 at the festival last year. And things haven't exactly gone smoothly for him this season, with his only win coming when he was 1/4 at Kelso in a class 2. His other runs have looked very disappointing, particularly at Aintree when he was struggling before unseating his rider. I just don't think he's going to quite have the class to win here. Djakadam and Carlingford Loch are 2 I would oppose due to there failure to complete at last years festival, whilst Road To Riches has no course form whatsoever he's obviously a good horse, but no course form is a big concern. And as for Coneygree his connections want shooting if they run a novice in the Gold Cup, he is not going to win a Gold Cup after only 3 runs over fences. He will have his work cut out with Kings Palace in the RSA, never mind taking on some of these seasoned chasers
Conti could have won it at his first attempt, he fell when cruising so we will never know! Last year was disappointing but he looks a different horse this year, headgear looks to be working and I think he will lead all the way and win be at least 5 lengths
He was cruising at the same stage last year and emptied up the hill. So I think it's unlikely he'd of got the better of Bobs Worth the year before
Paul Nichols always has an excuse ready anytime his stable stars get beat Don't get suckered into backing this flat track bully again
I think Carlingford Lough completed last year Shergs but was beaten 9L in the RSA. I think he looked a good stayer winning in Ireland LTO but I have severe doubts about the form ties with Fox Rock. Maybe we'll know more after the Ryanair?
So he did Topclass, I must have got my wires crossed. Like you say though 9 lengths beaten into 6th, isn't great course form. I wouldn't say it was a particularly strong RSA so id expect him to do better than that if were going to take him seriously for a GC. I agree about Fox Rock, he's only running in the Ryanair because it looks a weak renewal. Hes just a good handicapper from what I can see in his form
Im sure I read that he hasn't had a chase winner in over three years at Cheltenham recently... He must have pulled some good yarns to appease the punters with some of the runners he has had...!!!
Looks like the Sherwood rain dance may pay off with a fair drop forecast today and tomorrow. Can't believe Many Clouds still 8s.
This money for Djakadam staggers me. He's now 13/2 with Bet365. He got a 30 length beating by Many Clouds in the Henessey getting a lump of weight. I thought he ran a nice race until he ran out of puff but I'd never have him as second favourite in this, which is an even sterner test of stamina. I know the Mullins fan boys reckon the great man can walk on water but if he pulls this off even I might believe ol Willie could feed the masses with a few bread rolls and a tin of sardines.
Interesting reading back over this thread, a couple of quotes caught my eye: "The novice Coneygree ran away with the Denman Chase at Newbury with a devastating round of jumping from the front and in a time just 6.6 seconds above standard on soft ground. The debate will no doubt rage from now until the RSA declarations as to whether Coneygree should take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or stick to the novice race. For what it's worth, I think he must go to the Gold Cup after such a display in the Denman Chase. "Carpe Diem" as they say ............................" and ..................... "And as for Coneygree his connections want shooting if they run a novice in the Gold Cup, he is not going to win a Gold Cup after only 3 runs over fences. He will have his work cut out with Kings Palace in the RSA, never mind taking on some of these seasoned chasers "
I got a lot of things right at Cheltenham oddy, but this il accept I got awfully wrong I still can't believe I backed that rogue Kings Palace either
Glad Coneygree won. Great for the connections and to see a small yard win the big race in a festival that has been dominated by Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci. I was one of those who said you have to go for it while you are in form. You never know what is going to happen between now and next year. Can't understand anyone who backed Silviniaco Conti. He looked great at Haydock and Kempton but Cheltenham is a totally different proposition. Silviniaco Conti hasn't taken to Cheltenham in three previous runs and was always going to be a lay. He reminds me of the likes of Florida Pearl and One Man. Maybe Paul Nicholls should start to think about the Ryanair Chase for him next year. Disappointed with Lord Windermere. I thought he would have given a better account of himself but never got going. Interesting to see plenty of front running winners this week in the top races rather than those coming from the pack. Coneygree's Gold Cup win was only 5s slower than standard too on what looking testing ground in the end.
Massive performance from Coneygree, the visual impression backed up by the clock. To do that from the front as a novice in a Gold Cup just beggars belief.
