Been looking at the Guineas field and can't get it out of my head that maybe it's not one of the best renewals. There might be a good one among them, but most seem pretty thin to me.
Looking at the going stick readings it will be closer to firm than good by the time the race starts. Was reading about 8.6 last night, and was 8.9 this morning. So it's firming up all the time
Very open race with at least 4 horses likely to look to lead. Shame about Elm Park, would like to have seen him run. The going is going to be similar to Newbury, but without the tail-wind. I'll stick with Ivawood.
I thought Home Of The Brave ran a good race, staying off after being outpaced. Looks sure to be suited by further (not checked the pedigree) and could pick up some nice prizes in the coming months.
I do not expect that Ryan Moore will be doing too much more complaining about the stalls having been placed on the stands’ rail rather than in the centre of the course as the result went his way. It is somewhat ironic that the placement of the stalls was allegedly an attempt to stop the field splitting (as it had done last year) and yet the field split. This was very simply because the three runners that might have been expected to make the running were all drawn low (Celestial Path 1, Kool Kompany 7 and Intilaaq.11). Home Of The Brave had made all in the Free Handicap and from the 17 draw he made the running for the stands’ side group whilst Kool Kompany led the centre group. It was obvious coming to the distance that the stands’ side group were in front and Gleneagles (drawn 16) beat Territories (drawn 19) whilst the early leader Home Of The Brave ran out of stamina. The draw itself was only relevant because of how the race was run – only two of the five other winners on the straight course were drawn high. Gleneagles won fair and square, more than confirming Paris form with Territories, but they will surely avoid the temptation to stretch his stamina by going to Epsom as he does look like a miler. He may turn out to be a smart miler and there is the possibility of a duel between the last two Guineas winners with Night Of Thunder still in training, although one suspects that the three-year-old would be favoured as Richard Hannon’s four-year-old did little to advertise his Newmarket success afterwards.
I think there was a definite bias on to the stands side group. The going stick read 8.6 down the middle, whilst it was 8.9 on the stands side. So even if it was slight there was definitely an advantage racing on the stands side. I do think Gleneagles was the best horse in the race, and won fair and square. But I think Ivawood is the horse who won the race in the middle group, so he may well prove a lot better than the bare form of the race suggests. I definitely got Intilaaq wrong, what a hound that horse is but atleast I backed Gleneagles aswell, so collected a nice amount. I couldn't believe he drifted out to 9/2 near the off. Unbelievable price for a horse that was 7/4 a few weeks ago
No one got Intilaaq more wrong than I shergs. I am not going to forget him just yet however as that run was too bad to be true. The reason I say this is that at Newbury he finished the race off in full flight and there could be no possibility of suggesting he did not stay a mile, yet today he looked not to stay. I think he will be a horse that will yet have other days, they may not be at the very top table but they may not be far off. The winner looked class and I feel if we ran the race five more times he would still win each and this suggests very distinct superiority.
Intilaaq was a horse that had won a fast race under very fast conditions. To ask him to take on the best of the crop two weeks later was an enormous challenge. He may be good but he'd never come under pressure in a race and now he would have to. Don't know what his best distance will be but I suppose they'll try him over 10f somewhere now. Maybe that would have been the better idea. I don't believe the booking of Dane O'Neil had any effect at all.
Intilaaq is probably better than what he showed today Bluesky, afterall he did travel down the middle which was likely the slower side, and he was one of the least experienced in the field. Hopefully the run was to bad to be true, but this was a Guineas afterall. So I think there's a chance in hindsight that he was flattered by his maiden victory. Quite a few fancied horses in the race ran stinkers though. Estidkhaar and Ol Man River where very disappointing
Bit off topic here, being the Guineas thread and all, but have to say the win of American Pharoah in the Derby was a pretty decent effort. He came via the cape on the turn and ground out a strong run down the straight.
