I agre Stick - still some very nice prizes to be had at 12 furlongs so why not go for them? I do hope he goes to the king george rather than the irish Derby but suspect it will be the latter.
The way AOB was talking right after the race yesterday Australia won't be racing on next season. That being the case you'd have to think they'd love to win a Gp1 over 1m2f. I'd be surprised if they didn't look closely at the Eclipse.
AOB has had some good horses but not one great. If he doesn't go for the KG and the Arc and has no intention of racing him at 4, I suspect he knows the limitations of Australia and is afraid to risk his stud value. ****ing typical. I love to see a brilliant 3yo take on his/her elders in the KG then prove that they have not simply benefited from being an early maturer by taking in the Arc and then the best of the younger generation the following year. However good they appear to be at 3, against their own generation, it always leaves that element of doubt if they haven't taken on the best of the previous and next generations. It will very disappointing if he isn't at least given the opportunity to become one of the greats.
I found these Timeform Ratings for the New Approach Derby so thought I would extract to see if it sheds any light on the quality of this years. Alan Devonshire 115 Alessandro Volta 125p Bashkirov 100 Bouguereau 123 Bronze Cannon 128p Casual Conquest 134p Curtain Call 130p Doctor Fremantle 128p Frozen Fire 132p Kandahar Run 120p King of Rome 122 Maidstone Mixture 86 New Approach 139 Rio de La Plata 134 River Proud 130 Tajaaweed 128p Tartan Bearer 133p Washington Irving 120p In this race we have 7 horses going into the race on an adjusted rating of 130 or higher The highest rated being 139 New Approach 134p Casual Conquest 134 Rio de La Plata 133p Tartan Bearer 132p Frozen Fire 130p Curtain Call This years Derby had just 4 with a pre race rating of 130 or more 137p AUSTRALIA 135 TRUE STORY 133p KINGSTON HILL 130p AROD (IRE) It is interesting that Kingston Hill and Tartan Bearer had the same rating (133p) and the supplemented Casual Conquest a pound higher at 134p. Australia had a trouble free run and travelled like a dream and beat Kingston Hill by 1¼l whereas new Approach pulled like a train, had anything but a trouble free run beat Casual Conquest by 5l. On the face of it, Australia is no World beater It would be interesting to see pre race ratings for other years
I think i am right in saying that the Timeform ratings are adjusted to ten stone, so knock 14 off them and New Approach went into his Derby rated 125; and I suspect that he probably ran to that rating. If we just take the last ten running of the Epsom Derby in isolation – ignoring what the winners subsequently achieved – I think that we will find that this year Australia put up a performance similar to that of Sea The Stars. Remember him? He never won his races by five lengths but he kept on improving all season and we now consider him one of the best. That is what Australia has got to do if he wants to be considered one of the greats. Just based on the Derby alone, I would say that Workforce put up the best performance in winning the Derby in the last ten years – setting a record time and winning by five lengths helps.
I'm not sure what you are saying QM. You take 14lb off all those ratings to get the Timeform Master Rating (ie makes no difference to the example). If Australia ran 10lb better than his pre race rating that would make his Master Rating 133 post Derby. He beat a horse with a pre race Master Rating of 119p. Which is why I'm saying it doesn't have the feel of a World beater. Personally I hope he proves that he could be by winning the KG and the Arc. If he wins the KG impressively I will definitely be at Longchamp to cheer him on. I have this feeling though that he won't turn up for the Arc because he probably isn't good enough to win it. The pedigree looks perfect but it's not too often that a top class filly develops into a top class broodmare. Hopefully she (Ouija Board) can emulate those grand mares Urban Sea and Kind. Hopefully AOB won't f**k it up somewhere along the line.
Ignoring the Timeform ratings (and the Official Ratings) the most encouraging aspect of form (to my mind) is that Australia ran the race in 2m 33.63s (fast by 1.07s) and Cirrus Des Aigles ran the same distance just 80 mins earlier in 2m 34.86s (slow by 0.16s). Both horses were carrying 9.00. Now, given that in a weight for age race at this stage a 3yo would be receiving 15lb from older horses, that seems some achievement. I think I saw somewhere (could be wrong) that 2.4lbs would slow a horse by 1/5 second every mile it runs. And also that, over 12f, 1lb = 1l 2m 34.86s minus 2m 33.63s = 1.23 secs. If the above is correct that would mean that to slow Australia down to run the 12f in the same time as CDA he would have to carry approx 9.6lbs more than CDA. So if he actually carried 15lb less Australia should beat CDA by about 24l. Surely that can't be right, can it. I must have done something wrong so a bit of help in interpreting this piece of form would be appreciated. One thing I must do is to verify this with comparative runnings in these 2 races in previous years.
Looked at past 3 years and I can see at a glance that this theory doesn't stand up too well. Oh well, it kept me out of trouble for a while.
I never know how to work out these time and weight distance equations but I am pretty sure that were Tagroodha have run in the Derby, as she was entitled to even though a filly she would have won. Her time was 1 second slower than Australia but were she in receipt of the 3lb fillies allowance she would have finished ahead of him. This makes her quite some horse as Australia is the best Aiden has ever trained.
Why does the quality of a horse have to depend on time? Australia's 2:33:63 against Cirrus Des Aigles' 2:34:86 could be nothing more than an over all quicker Derby pace. There's nothing to say that he's a better animal. Is anyone seriously suggesting that in a match race over 12f, Currus Des Aigles would cop a pounding? Even giving away the weight penalty, he'd be in it up to his ears.
That's as far as he will go. They won't go Leger with that chap. He's too good for that. I agree re the Arc. If he's not going for the Arc I will be disappointed.
No Cyc, no-one is saying that. And the only way to find out which is the better horse is to run them against each other in a truly run race in conditions that favour neither horse. What the clock does tell us though is what the horse has actually achieved, rather than potentially could achieve. Obviously there are factors to be taken into account but it is the only factual starting point.
