Your opinion is good enough for me on this, i was going to back but now i've left Kinston Hill alone and gone with Geoffrey Chaucer 11/1 & True Story 10/1 both ew and rev fc
They're not bookmakers any more, Bob, just a load of chicken accountants. They should start being real bookmakers instead of wasting good money on childish advertisements?
Looks like my Kingston Rain Dance has worked Paul Cole taught me it! Hope you have lots more showers up to 4p.m. Good Luck
Rain coming for Kingston Hill, hes rock solid, draw looks the only negative, backed him and Western Hymn.
Although Australia is now drifting to a backable price I must say I am still yet to understand why the bookmakers have this as such a one horse race. This horse has run 4 times winning twice, the highest level he has won at is group 3 in a 4 runner race. He has yet to run beyond a mile and yet is favourite for the biggest Group 1 run so far over 12f. He could be the real deal, but I cannot stress enough just how special he will need be to be that effective over 1 mile in the guineas and also be able to stay 12f at the top table in the Derby. This would involve him being in the Nashwan, Dancing Brave and Sea the Stars category. Geoffery Chaucer is 10-1 and yet has won 2 out of 3 including a group 2, It's also worthy of note that he was the stables selection in the Derrinstown which is traditionally the race in which Ballydoyle's Derby hope runs. He did fail to win but will have come on a ton for that run in which he looked far from tuned up. I note also that Ryan Moore has got off of Orchestra to ride him. I could quite easily see Australia travelling like the winner in behind yet finding less than expected whilst GC stays on past him. I am taking the derrinstown as the piece of form to trust and back GC and Ebonaron.
Let it rain Kingston hill western hymn but I'm looking at impulsive moment at a massive price tote place
Blue - good points. However just worth pointing out they are using the 2000 as their major Derby prep nowadays. The Derrinstown is still a major trial for them but gone are the days where they automatically send their number one to the Derrinstown.
Nothing to change my thoughts that I posted on the Derby thread during the week. It is a good race, a clutch of horses still unexposed. Just trying to work out where I can get a without Australia tricast. Hope its a great race, no excuses and that the best one goes and wins.
He may, of course turn out to be yet another hyped up horse Blue. But if a horse is bred to be middle distance and runs well in the Guineas, the chances are it is pretty special. Mill Reef, New Approach and Grundy spring to mind among those not mentioned. Australia should win this but there are a few others that also have improvement in them that are only a few pounds behind him. There just has to be one who improves significantly more than Australia since their last run and/or for the step up in trip. Timeform ratings and distance comments plus the "likely to improve" expectation 137p AUSTRALIA should be capable of even better now upped in trip 135 TRUE STORY should stay 1½m. 133p KINGSTON HILL will be suited by middle distances: may yet do better. 130p AROD (IRE) will probably stay 1½m: should do better still. 129p GEOFFREY CHAUCER (USA) will stay 1½m: will go on improving. 129p EBANORAN (IRE) likely to stay 1½m if settling: open to further improvement. 129p ORCHESTRA (IRE) stays 12.5f: will go on improving. 128p ROMSDAL will stay at least 1¾m: open to further improvement. 128p FASCINATING ROCK (IRE) will stay 1½m: may do better still. 127p WESTERN HYMN will stay 1½m: remains with potential. 125p PINZOLO bred to be suited by 1½m: remains with potential. 123 KINGFISHER (IRE) will probably stay 1½m. 123 SUDDEN WONDER (IRE) will probably stay 1½m. 121p IMPULSIVE MOMENT (IRE) should stay 1½m: open to further improvement. 113 RED GALILEO will st 1½m: 112 OUR CHANNEL (USA) likely to prove best up to 1¼m. So, according to Timeform, a lot open to improvement and expected to stay 12f or even improve for the step up to 12f. Obviously some horses will stay 12f faster than others Please note these are not the complete comments made by Timeform
Looking at the Timeform comments it would seem that although plenty are expected to stay the 12f the ones that stand out are: Australia. Top rated and likely to improve more with the step up in trip Kingston Hill. Will be suited by middle distances Orchestra. Already proven over trip and will go on improving If that's right then my Australia to win and Orchestra to win without Australia don't look too bad at this stage.
On breeding I am with you Ron and whilst it would be foolish to ignore such things I tend take a form book view first and foremost, the issue is it takes something special to be as effective at 8f and 12f at group 1 level. I am not saying it wont win but I have a feeling Australia may not even make the frame. I would not criticise anyone for taking the price it is this morning but those that were taking the 8-11 after the Dante were I feel way off the mark with regard value for a horse running 4f further than ever before in its life in a grade it had never won in. Geoffrey Chaucer Ebanoran True Story
According to legend if flowers are laid on the Gypsy Boy's grave just outside Newmarket on Derby Day then the Derby winner will come from a Newmarket stable. Some people also believe the colour of the flowers will indicate the winner. A picture of the grave appeared on Facebook this morning with fresh flowers - red and blue. So get your money on PINZOLO!
Finally got around to having a proper look at this race. Australia has started to drift to a backable price however he is still to short for me for a horse that has never run over 1m4f and has been beaten twice already in his career. He may well win but can't be backing him at those odds. I backed Kingston Hill when he was still 14/1, now 7/1 and the rain seems to have come for him. The racing post trophy win was so impressive and he looked like he would relish the step up in trip. If he hadn't run in the 2000 Guineas he would be 4 or 5/1. Also, if he was trained in ballydoyle he would probably be close to being favourite! He has been massively overlooked and i think he has a huge chance. I am still slightly suspicious of the Dante form. The Grey Gatsby has since come out and won the french derby but im not all to convinced that that was the strongest race in the world. True Story laboured that day having looked very promising previously and he has to run better but i just cant bring myself to back a Godolphin horse in a derby. Arod was finishing well that day and will like the step up in trip but i'm just not sure he is going to be good enough to win this. Plus i can't be trusting my derby bet in the hands of Jamie Spencer! I dont think the rest of the irish challenge are good enough and i definitely cannot be having Geoffrey Chaucer. He just simply doesn't look good enough to me! Western Hymn has his quirks which i am wary of however he is the only horse in this race that has shown he has a real turn of foot. His times over the final two furlongs in his first two races were so impressive and he was value for a bigger winning margin at Sandown. You need to have a change of gears to win a derby and he has the best of the lot. Quite an open race but Kingston Hill and Western Hymn for me.
The Grey Gatsby won by three lengths and there is no question that the favourite was given an awful ride by Gerald Mosse whilst the race really worked out well for Ryan Moore saving ground on the inside knowing that the extended ten furlongs was as far as his horse would go. Time may show that it was not a vintage renewal but by five o’clock there may be plenty on here rubbishing The Derby if a blanket can cover the first half dozen and the winner is not Ouija Board’s son.
