I Backed Kingston Hill @ 10/1 earlier in the week, so could do with the heavy rain arriving earlier than expected as the official going was changed this morn to Good, Met Office reckons there will be flooding in some areas during tomorrow afternoon so the going could be soft come 4p.m., nervous times for those who have backed the FAV, going to wait to very near the off before I play again. Good Luck!
Why exactly is it nervous times for fav backers? He'll handle soft ground. He has in the past. I think 2/1 is a reasonable expectation at some point tomorrow and I'll be taking that.
For me the big question mark hanging over the 2014 Derby is nothing to do with any of the sixteen that go to post but fundamentally depends on the weather: the going. How much rain, if any, will fall on Epsom before 4pm? Third in the 2000 Guineas, Australia is allegedly the best thing since sliced bread as he tries to improve his fifty per cent record over an extra half a mile. With course-and-distance Classic winners for parents, his stamina should not be an issue but what tactics are likely to be employed? He will not want to get boxed in at Tattenham Corner in such a big field and my suspicion is that Dee Stakes winner Kingfisher – well beaten in the Ballysax before that – is in the line-up as the rabbit for him to chase. I do see the course layers trying to get the favourite as he should be at least twice the odds he is now. Rain would surely assist last year's Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill and his no-show in the Guineas on fast ground can surely be excused on that front. It was a grey day at Chantilly on Prix Du Jockey Club day; how about a grey day at Epsom? In recent weeks, Geoffrey Chaucer has been the heavily supported Ballydoyle second-string. Third in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, he will surely welcome any rain being a Montjeu; but why should he reverse placings with the first two? Fascinating Rock collected the Ballysax and the Derrinstown in a three race unbeaten run this term and has to have a good chance of giving Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld compensation for The Oaks defeat of Tarfasha – and is trading at twice the odds. So is the Derrinstown runner-up, Ebanoran, whose stamina must all be on the dam's side of the family; but are there really grounds for thinking he can reverse the form over the extra two furlongs? Can John Gosden pull off a Classic double with either of his candidates? Western Hymn won the Sandown Classic Trial and two minor events (one on the “all weather”, should definitely stay and would not be inconvenienced by rain. If he runs any sort of race it would be no surprise to see him as the favourite for the St Leger by Saturday evening given the trainer’s recent record on Town Moor. Romsdal was second in the Chester Vase and has only an “all weather” win at Kempton to his name, but Princess Haya’s chestnut has surely not been supplemented just so she has a runner. Is the Chester Vase winner Orchestra really good enough here? The race has only produced one Derby winner in the last thirty years – Ruler Of The World last year. The key Derby Trial in recent times has been the Dante Stakes. The exploits of this year’s winner may give the misleading impression that the form is good. Arod’s second at York looks like good form if you are prepared to take it at face value; and he stays the extra half mile. Previous Blue Riband second favourite True Story only managed third on that softish ground after winning the Fielden Stakes on good ground. Will rain scupper his prospects? Of the outsiders, few make any real appeal. Our Channel won the Derby Trial Stakes on this course but it is hard to make any other case for him; whilst Pinzolo’s third to Barley Mow in the Newmarket Stakes does not look anything to shout about (nor does his last-time-out win in a five runner affair). Sudden Wonder managed only third in the Lingfield Derby Trial to absentee Snow Sky after winning the Tattersalls Millions to open his campaign and was beaten by Pinzolo as a two year old. Impulsive Moment, second to Western Hymn at Sandown and winner of a Lingfield “all weather” race is surely making up the numbers. In the final analysis, I will be waiting until a quarter of an hour before the race to see what the weather has done. Heavy rain might lead me towards Kingston Hill but I am more inclined to seek better value in the over-priced Fascinating Rock, who has done nothing wrong this year with three wins more than the favourite. If Australia does not win in a common canter, how many times will Aidan O’Brien tell Rishi Persad to “listen”?
Can I ask, why has THE GREY GATSBY given the "misleading" impression that the Dante form is good? Could it not just be that the form is very good? How anyone can crab that Prix du JC run baffles me. It could be that the three best colts of this year turned up in the Dante. I certainly hope so!
I'd better get down there Early Doors with a wheelbarrow full of bananas so! Know what i mean like Best of Luck tomorrow, I'll be looking out for you on the T.V.....what colour dress will you be wearing? Gadolphin Blue
So do I - I have backed Arod @ 40/1, 33/1, 28/1 and have an E/W double running Taghrooda @ 10/1 with Arod @ 33/1
My concern is the ground though - was hoping for g/f for Arod - not much chance of that according to the weatherman
This insane weather forecast leaves a bit of an unknown with the Derby. Might be wise to sit tight for those of you who were planning on a morning bet. For those who really like him, Australia by more than 2 lengths is 9/2 with Coral. Camelot was 4/1 to win by 5 or more lengths with Will Hill in 2012.
I do like those races where both the market and the narrative suggest it's all about one horse. Of course it's rarely that simple, but today California Chrome, out of an $8000 mare, has his chance to write his name in history. All he has to do is complete the 3rd leg of a triple crown that has proved every bit as elusive as our own version. Can California take New Yoik ?
Heard on The Morning Line earlier trainer John Oxx has only ever had three runners in the Epsom Derby, two won (Sinndar, Sea The Stars) and one was 3rd (don't know the name of the horse). Although Aidan O'Brien once said Australia is potentially the best horse he's ever trained, I'll have a saver on Ebonoran who ought to stay every yard of the trip on the basis of his entry in the Irish St. Leger. Kingston Hill simply cannot be overlooked, a mile was too sharp for him in the Guineas. Won't be at all surprised if he wins.
Can someone explain why Kingston Hill is so well supported? Won a poor Racing Post Trophy at 2 and ran a respectable but nothing more 8th on seasonable debut. Now a best priced 8/1 for the Derby because it may or may not rain on the course. Oh my word. If he wins this race it is a terribly poor renewal. I don't often lay and never at 8/1 (if I'm laying I'm taking on a shortie) but that horse is lay of the season material.
Hope you have to eat your words Bob! Truth is lots of hype surrounds all these horses -yesterday the fav for the oaks was where? ......
I do like to have an opinion. There's nowt to be gained in this game by sitting on the fence. Have you backed it Rudey?
I heard on the grapevine that Roger Varian has been giving Kingston a magic potion which he got off the Good Doctor Newland! I'll be having a saver on your selection @ 9/2 to win > 2 Lengths, and Stick's True Story, as I'd love to see him land a monster Anti-Post bet. Have a good day & Good Luck!
