and points make prizes. Interesting money for the Ballydoyle second string. We are heading into familiar territory with this....
Derby week upon us already? How time flies. The racing circus hardly blinks an eye between Cheltenham and Epsom. Crazy stuff. I've left the racing alone since then but I always enjoy watching the Epsom Derby so I've had a good look at it today. It is the race I look forward to on the flat every year because it is a true classic. Unlike the farcical Guineas, where you have half the field making their seasonal reappearance. It has been nice to skip most of the flat season. I can't believe that The Grey Gatsby won the French Derby today. Absolutely crazy. He has definitely improved for a step up in trip. Another promising result for Mastercraftsman as a sire. I don't feel strongly one way about this years Derby, although I do have my take on it. Australia is the most likely winner IF you think he handles the trip and track. Take him out of the race though, and it is about as wide open as it gets. I've just watched the Guineas footage and Australia has a lot of pace and ran on really well. There are a couple of things that, if I was on him at these short odds, would slightly worry me. The first thing- the proximity of him and Shifting Power. He had just under 2L on Shifting Power, Kingman demolished him by 5L in Ireland. There is a possibility that Kingmans side of the track was the 'wrong' one to be on at Newmarket, but of course that is unproveable. The other thing that worries me is to have the speed he has, will a mile and a half truly suit him? It will be interesting, but the major thing in his favour is that he is really laid back and relaxed, so he should settle. The flip side is that Australia got within a nose of a potentially brilliant miler, and will improve at a mile and a half. If that is the case, you might see a really special performance. Do not forget though, that the reason for the AOB hype is that as well as some raw ability, he has the perfect pedigree to become Coolmores next super sire, and they need one having lost Montjeu and St Nicholas Abbey in the last year or so. I think this fellow looks twice the horse Camelot was though, just looks so much more powerful, and that is what you need. WESTERN HYMN is a very nice racehorse and has all the tools to win at Epsom. He has the turn of foot and stays and if he settles into the race well early, he ought to come flying late. Equally,there is evidence of a high head carriage and he is a bit of a character! However he has a bit of St Nicholas Abbey about him, and he did very well at Epsom when he eventually got there. There was talk of him being unimpressive at Sandown but Buick only kids him into the race, and with Gosdens instructions to go easy on him and not bottom him out in really heavy conditions, the way he lengthened, eventually, was actually a pretty good thing. He had plenty up his sleeve there. ORCHESTRA surprised a few people in travelling so well around Chester for such a big colt, and that bodes well for Epsom. Romsdals rattling finish makes Orchestra look like he was slowing at the fnish but watch that race again- he quickens up really well and puts 8 lengths between himself and Scotland, in 3rd. Had he have not run a little right, he ought to have won by a length or two from Romsdal, and I think he has real each way prospects at Epsom. GEOFFREY CHAUCER has had good support behind stablemate Australia, AOB saying before his reappearance that they were considering the French Derby as he was 'showing a lot of speed for a Montjeu'. He was obviously unlucky in his reappearance having met trouble on the rail, although it cannot be certain he would have won. The race was run at a crawl which would not have suited because I think he looked better in the Beresford coming off a pace. I'd be amazed if Fascinating Rock or Ebanoran were good enough. Ebanoran is by Oasis dream and will not see out the mile and a half. Fascinating Rock had the benefit of race fitness on Geoffrey Chaucer and I think the O Brien colt will have too much class for those two at Epsom. A mile and a half ran at a good clip will really suit him. True Storys Newmarket win is way overrated- who were they in behind? No one of note. I'm not sure Australia is my sort of odds- he hasn't proved his pedigree just yet, although a dominant victory is not out of the question and he is fascinating. Value lies each-way: Western Hymn 14/1 More in hand than meets the eye at Sandown, a turn of foot, and a top yard and jockey. Orchestra 16/1 Proved he stays the trip, put a couple of 100 rated animals to the sword by 8L, improving with each start since his green performance behind Free Eagle. A progressive feel to him. Nice cruising speed for a big horse. Without Australia reverse tricast: Western Hymn/Orchestra/Geoffrey Chaucer Not a race to get carried away with, market allows me to play those as a small each-way. Enjoy the race folks, think it is a nice Derby to watch this year!
Nice to see you posting Toppy. Not sure who this Geffen bloke is, but he has fair few horses under both codes so it would be nice to see him land a big prize with Western Hymn.
Find the Derby relatively simple, for some strange reason, i.e.Australia if he handles the switchback Epsom course. Mind you, I thought yesterday's French Derby was relatively simple too, and that Prince Gibraltar was, what do the forum experts call it, a wheelbarrow job? Unfortunately, he dwelt and then got a bit of a so-so ride from Gerald Mosse, normally one of the best come-from-behind jockeys in the world. Really did think Prince G. was a good thing. But I'll still stick with Australia.
The horse that I think is massively overpriced in this heat is old boy PINZOLO at a whopping 50/1. In his 5 races to date I don’t think he’s done that much wrong and it could be argued that he is a rapidly improving type who will excel over the distance of 12 furlongs. As a 2YO Pinzolo won his first 2 events. These were a maiden and then the Haynes, Hanson & Clark at Newbury which is often won by a decent sort (past winners include Shergar, Rainbow Quest, King’s Theatre and Nayef). On his final run at 2 Pinzolo disappointed, in the Group 1 RP Trophy, but a case could be made that this was down to the ground, which was bordering on heavy, and he may have had enough for the season by then anyway. Pinzolo started this term with a nice staying on 3rd in a Listed heat at Newmarket before over the same 10 furlongs easily winning in similar grade impressively. Eyecatchingly, the only horse to run again since from that event (Master Carpenter) won a Listed affair last week by a whopping 7 lengths so the form looks solid to my eye. Pinzolo also lacks nothing in breeding as he's by the excellent Monsun and his dam won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks and was placed at Group 1 level. In conclusion I think the nicely bred Pinzolo looks a straightforward sort and Epsom should hold no fears for him. His form looks very solid and was given a timely boost last week. Similarly he shouldn’t be inconvienced by the ground (providing we don’t get an extreme) as he’s obliged on both soft and good to firm. All in all then I think 50’s far too big.
He’s the CEO of Neptune Investments. Also has horses with the forum’s favourite trainer, Mr Henderson. Amazingly he overruled the great man and insisted that his Cocktails At Dawn ran in the race his company sponsored at the Cheltenham Festival.
The bookmakers are certainly looking to ensure people don't oppose Australia on price value as their largely dangling odds against carrots now, will be lovely to see big carrots with 7/4 on them on Derby Day!
I am fine thanks gents, hope you guys are doing well Think i saw 6/4 on the exchanges Beefy, certainly think they will have room to take him on come Saturday given how defensive of him they have been. With bits and pieces of action at bigger odds, they will dangle a price early on come Saturday for Australia backers. It's a nice race this year. Romsdal supplemented for £75,000- will Buick choose him or Western Hymn?
I was quite surprised by the 6/4 Australia freely available on BF. I couldn't resist having a few shekels as he's bound to go off a bit shorter than that. Any 7/4 on the day will get snaffled up in seconds, unless it's pissing down I suppose.
I think this is building up to be a really good Derby. The favourite is out there in front, the 2000G form is rubber stamped by the Irish Guineas, the Dante and The Prix du Jockey Club but there's still a nagging doubt about this colt called Australia. I'll be there and he'll probably win by 20 lengths, but I'll be opposing him. Probably to my cost.
Hi Toppy, how you're well. Yes 6/4 available on old BF, there's definitely going to be 7/4 on him on the day. Thinking back 12 months ago I think Dawn Approach was priced very similarly and based on how unlikely a stayer he looked it to most, it actually makes the price on Australia look excellent. I suppose rain forecast tomorrow will have a big influence as the stamina doubts some people have, will clearly be exacerbated on soft going. However the single biggest worry to me and other Australia backers should be this: Joseph O'Brien.
Think he will keep it simple beef? outside out of trouble, move up earlyish, if hes as good as they think he is then no need to take any chances when obrien starts riding them as if hes sitting on Dancing Brave thats when your in trouble, I dont think Australia is that type of horse, id be making plenty use of him
I've backed Ebanoran purely and simply because the wonderful Mr Oxx and his holiness the aga Khan don't send many over for this - and when they do they often tend to be a bit special.
Australia is shaping up to be a confident lump. The 2000 looks strong in retrospect. He should improve for the step up. The ground should be fine. It's a stretch to expect anything that ran at Newmarket to turn round the form. 6/4 will do for me on the day.
