. I'm not knocking Kingman either Archers, I think their both good (maybe very good) horses hence why I'm keen on Aussie in the Derby. I'm simply referring to the fact Australia (with the worse of the draw) beat Kingman fair and square. In another few yards Australia may well have been the Guineas winner, well that or been taken right out by the veering actual winner! My point is I can easily see the situation where people knock one but not the other simply because of a certain AP O'Brien
You are right Dex, I think it was the Racing Post. I seem to remember he won a top end of year 2yo race over a mile.
On his form !!!!!! Slammed free eagle by 6L who had slammed orchestra and kingfisher on debut both win a derby trial in the 2000G he finishes 3rd wins race his side by a couple length under an inadequate trip the Grey gatsby 6L behind him wins the Dante and desposies of 2nd favourite true story who won the fielden by 9L so on the form front it's terrible supposedly has any of the other colts in race got better form ? No
True Mick..his form credentials are extremely compelling. However,Bustino,Blue,Gladness and QM raise doubts about his stamina which are legitimate on a colt that hasn't gone beyond a mile. He does though,like Camelot,only have to beat what he is fronted with...at the moment contenders are withering. If he stays he wins is most peoples mantra...I concur,althought there is no value in his price. Like AO'B or not,he hyped Camelot who did win the Guineas and Derby and no doubt would have won the Leger bar the drug fella's.
I am missing the association here. The thread is about the Derby, where the miler Kingman will not be putting in an appearance; and those of us that did our money on the Guineas had stopped crying into our beer by May 4th. Please point out to me where I have raised doubts about Australia’s stamina. I should point out at this juncture that I have a record of every posting I have ever made on this forum and I have never suggested that the son of a Derby winner and an Oaks winner will not stay the distance. Clearly I am not the only one that should keep their trap shut having never trained a Derby winner of any description. I am not “most people”, so “if he stays he wins” is not my mantra. An interesting notion that Camelot was denied victory in the St Leger by “the drug fella’s”...
My goodness!..trap shut?.....not sure that was directed at you old chap...you are very sensitive...however,one welcomes your input. Unfortunately you are a loud mouth on this forum and must accept the return of your generally meek serve. You are indeed not "most people"..you struggle to be an everyman...you do,however,add to many debates and that is welcome...sometimes! Besos y abrazos.
That is surprising. I always had you down as a bitter man... On a serious note regarding the jolly's price. I understand people not keen on odds on shots, but there's little doubt in my mind he'll be offered up odds against in the morning, possibly even 6-4 or thereabouts. Always happens in the big races, Kingman was 9-4 on the morning having been much closer to evens in the run up to the race. At 6-4 I can imagine he'll prove quite popular!
This is a good point Beef, the points I have made are actually all to do with his price and not really his form or ability to stay. The main issue I have is that the form and distance have not been proven and when a horse is odds on these things should be proven to warrant consideration as a betting prospect. It comes down to this - do I think he will be good enough? yes, do I think he will stay? most likely, but the horse is being asked to run 4 furlongs more than ever attempted, yet the bookies have priced him up as odds on. As you say he may drift on the day, I actually feel he will but that evens may be the best offered, at 15-8 he would become worth taking a punt on in my opinion.
Could always put Australia in a transatlantic double with California Chrome in the Belmont. Probably not though. Odds on in The Derby makes little appeal. In fact it ought to make the market for some e/w value elsewhere.The thing of PCHs ran green at Windsor, only got going late in the Dante, and is available at 20/1 to give the Fat Chappster a third Derby win.
For me his biggest rival is his stablemate Geoffrey Chaucer . and of all the derby trials he is the only one to take out of them. No one can back anything against Australia in my opinion if kingman wins easily in the Irish guineas then he will become even shorter on price . He will stay in the derby that's not a question it's does he have the turn off foot to win as well as he is priced I think he will . For me who has him at much bigger prices than 5s never mind 4/6
I must have missed that race? The Guineas looks the best form by a long way, few in there with potential still but nowhere near as much as Australia, best form, most potential, he deserves to be a very short price. Im sure some bookies will go odds against but ill be very surprised if he doesnt go off odds on. Californa Chrome in the Belmont, ill be taking him on again! Good horse in a bad year, doesnt deserve to be on the list of Triple Crown winners and he wont stay 1m4, most of these American 3yos dont so he might not have to, thats the problem. Commanding Curve at 10/1 is a cracking bet, that said, he is nothing special and this is the best chance I think ive ever seen of a triple crown winner, would be good to see but for me if he does it, it will be through lack of top class opposition rather than him being a wonder horse.
Probably fair comment about California Chrome Boris. The Belmont could easily turn out a deeper race than either the Kentucky Duuuurby or the Preakness in any case. Love to see him do it though.
Whoops, yes I got them mixed up didn't I. Huge nose apart. Awfully sorry old boy! Still Australia is the horse to take from the race in my book!
Sorry Dexter, I didn't say he wouldn't stay, I was being 'devil's advocate' about his pedigree, and the vagaries of breeding. On his parents alone he has to stay but stranger things happen. Agree with MickD that GC is the interesting horse in the AOB hand. He will stay.
I would agree, he was the best horse in the race, but I still think Kingman is the best miler, cant be having this Night Of Thunder, dont know what sort of wizardry was going on for him to win the Guineas.
No one has said anything about Ebanoran. He won an unsatisfactory trial and was demoted to 2nd. It was only his third start and he looks to be learning fast with plenty of improvement to come. As his dam is a half-sister to Estimate he should stay the extra 2f. I believe you can get 20-1. What I find amusing is that in the year John Oxx was not sent any 2yos by the Aga, he is supplying him with a first rate Derby contender. Good luck to Mr Oxx.
Don't be fooled into thinking that was a fluke for future form Boris. The horse was a top drawer juvenile and but for the run first time up this year when KINGMAN demolished everything he would have gone to Newmarket at single figures in the betting. Nothing wrong with the first three in the Guineas but two of them at least are not mile and a half horses!
I know hes a decent horse but after what Kingman done to him at Newbury I still cant believe the result!
