Absolutely florida, a few years ago you could write off pretty much anything above 11 stone but in recent years both Neptune Collonges and Don't Push it have carried more than that to victory, also Hedgehunter. Interesting link here showing how the weight of the winning horse really has shifted upwards since around 2005. Between Rhyme 'N' Reason in 1988 (11 stone) and Hedgehunter in 2005 (11-01) all the winners were below 11 stone. But since Hedgehunter's victory we have had Mon Mome (11-0), Don't Push It (11-05), Ballabriggs (11-0) and Neptune Collonges (11-06) winning the race. Auroras Encore last year was a blip on recent trends with him carrying only 10-03. The better class of horses entered these days means a horse can be carrying 11-09 (Long Run) and still be considered "well handicapped".
This Henderson horse was receiving a stone to Walkon in the Topham and beat him 3/4 length everyone was talking this horse up as the National winner and now Walkons in receipt of 7 pounds and Wayne Hutchinson rides which is a plus. As for Barneys suggestion its only running for the owners day out is rubbish, Alan King is a top trainer he wouldn't allow this I don't care who pays the bills.
I had a sneaker for Walkon as well, I backed him on the Topham and thought I was on the winner until that bloody Henderson horse nabbed him. My worry would be that he looked very ring rusty in the Old Roan (made a bad blundr and unseated) and then had a plod round on desperately heavy ground in the Denman Chase. That could mean one of 2 things - he is very fresh so will go well or he lack race fitness and preparation. It's also worth pointing out that he hasn't won for over 3 years and 12 races (although he has been running at, or just below, the top table).
Well I hadn't even realised Walkon was entered but having had a look he is certainly very well in. Good spot.
I feel we could have a bit of a coup coming off here and we'll all lay it and the bookies might start sh#tting themselves, but anyway its nice to have a bit of banter with the chaps just like the old days.
The Package has just caught my eye lurking there off 10-04, ran a storming prep race to finish 3rd behind Holywell at the festival (although he did exactly the same in 2010 - finished a head 2nd to Cheif Dan George before unseating in the National won by Don't Push It) off a mark of 147. He gets in off 141 this time and I just wonder if he is a bit more experienced these days. He goes well for Tom Scu (an excellent jockey, who is bound to get the fractions right round Aintree) and if you look at his form over fences the last couple of years it is pretty impressive. He won the Badger Ales Trophy off 139 at Wincanton in Nov 2012, before finishing 4th in Bobs Worth's Hennessy a few weeks later off 147. That was followed by a couple of Ps and a long break but he looked to have retained plenty of ability at Cheltenham and he is weighted to go well here.
Have tried to narrow it down as best I can, have already backed Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek, and have these beasts left to whittle down to two or possibly three; Long Run Teaforthree Walkon Golan Way Balthazar King The Rainbow Hunter Alvarado Night In Milan
Have backed these all at big prices, will lay them all off hopefully much shorter and have a load of free bets. Long Run Monbeg Dude Tidal Bay Prince De Beauchene Triolo Dalene Shakalakaboomboom
I quite like the look of Vintage Star so am on at 40s. Must admit that Florida has made a pretty compelling case for Walk on - I can guarantee right now that my mother will back that one
If I could just respond to a couple of points re Walkon. Firstly, he is an old fave of mine and a horse I have maximum respect for but to suggest he could figure, at the business end, in a GN is just not for me. He may be well handicapped but the simple reason that he isn’t for me is that I don’t think he’s got a prayer of staying the marathon trip. You can be stones well in but if you can’t last the stamina sapping distance then you’ve little chance. Walkon’s form figures at 3 miles+ read -5PP4 and he only qualified for the race in the first place, in Feb, by finishing a whopping 86 lengths behind Harry Topper over said 3 miles. This was the only time he’d ever been ‘placed’ over 3 miles+ a new requisite required to run in the old heat. In short I think he is a 20-22 furlong horse where his form reads a much more respectable -271452252U. Meanwhile, I would say that in each GN a good fifth of the field run because the owner overrules the trainer (and in the days prior to the qualification rules this was even higher in my view). It is the owner who has the final say where horses go not the trainer as some seem to think. I could give you numerous examples, in recent times, when even someone as great as Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite, has been overruled re running plans – in fact as I’ve already said Hunt Ball, this year, is one example. The owner, probably after last terms 2 mile 5.5 furlong Topham, would have said he wanted Walkon trained for the GN and Alan King would have had no option but to concur and do as he’s told – trainers, for all we may big them up, afterall, are no more than the ‘hired help’. If he hadn’t the likelihood is that the horse would have been transferred elsewhere to someone who would have doffed their cap and murmured, ‘of course, sir’. Re The Package. I do like this one but my one fear is that he could have left his chance behind at Cheltenham. And he has the stats against him as only once in the past 17 years has the GN winner run over conventional fences at the preceding Cheltenham Festival. I do worry that he could 'bounce' on Saturday and I do believe the Pipe's should have run him here first time up and not even bothered with the Festival. However, if Cheltenham was merely a ‘prep’ and he has come on for that run I do believe The Package to be a serious player.
Barney, I can see where you are coming from as far as Walkons form is concerned . But I disagree , he has course form which could discount half the field and the Harry Topper race was on very heavy ground which he wouldn't like. The suggestion that a trainer of Alan Kings calibre would allow himself to be overruled by owners who want a day out is worrying on a welfare issue, and you do no favours to our sport to suggest as much.
If an owner thinks his horse has a chance at the National then that will probably be where the horse is targeted. If the trainer disagrees, the owner can always shift the horse to another yard. I can't be having a horse running in the Grand National after starting as a juvenile hurdler good enough to feature in a Triumph. I am with Barney on this one, especially if we get soft ground (possibly likely). I think if it comes up soft, I want a 3+ miler, with form on the ground, prominent runner and a low weight. Just need to find one!
Nass , Have a look at Mon Mome's form prior to his national win it doesn't look to special. A great training feat by Miss Williams as predicted on this forum at the time.
