Soll -that's Paul Blockley's runner isn't it -under his partners name? Got the right profile and as you say had a good sighter last year -
When you look at the key trends for this race it's regularly stated that you need something that has won a chase over £17k in value. However you have to go back to Bindaree in 2002 to find the winner with such 'poor' previous success. Since then every winner had previously won something worth a minimum of 31k. Additionally these successes had all come in double figure fields. I know trends aren't everyone's cup of tea but that's pretty strong in my opinion. If trends are your thing then you can rule out: Hunt Ball, Roi De Mee (bit harsh but his big success came in a 6 runner affair), Rocky Creek, Bog Warrior, Mossey Joe, Walkon, Wayward Prince, Mr Moonshine, Across the Bay, Buckers Bridge, Our Father, Vintage Star, Hawkes Point, Kruzhlinin, Pineau De Re, Golan Way, Twirling Magnet, Vesper Bell, Shakalakaboomboom, Alvarado, Lost Glory, Rose of the Moon, One in Milan, Goonyella, Swing Bill, Goonyella and Soll. That's 27 of the top 50. Not gone down further than that as I doubt anything else will get in.
Winner of a plus 31 thousand pound race, right age and ran a nice race in it last year. "Get in there Soll you good thing."
These are the obvious ones to discount for me.... Tidal Bay - 13 years old. Surely too old and didnt win the welsh National so why would he win this? I can see him finishing in the first 6 home though... Hunt Ball - carry too much weight and stamina a big question mark for this one. Triolo D'Alene - is a 7 year old so discount Katenko - not in the same form this year and just cant see him keeping up with the pace. Colbert Station - unseated last year and according to McCoy didnt settle and got a bit upset in the preliminaries. That doesnt bode well as handling the preliminaries is paert and parcel of it. Battle group - wouldnt want to back a horse who has refused! No Sirrreeeeeeee! Prince de Beauchene - surely missed the boat. was well fancied though in previous years but I reckon his chance has gone. Burton Port - looks a shadow of his former self and wont be good enough Mountaineous - needs it soft and it wont be so he wont win if he even lines up Kruzhlinin - again a 7 year old so no chance Twirling Magnet - err no thanks - wont be good enough. I cant totally dismiss the others to line up .. They all have a squeak - just look at the shock winner last year!
I see that in the last 17 years only 3 GN winners had run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival and that stat makes even worse reading for those who fancy one who ran a couple of weeks ago in Gloucestershire over the conventional fences as 2 of those 3 winners had come from either a hurdles heat (Don’t Push It) or the X-Country (Silver Birch). Quite damning stat that – only once in the last 17 renewals has a GN winner run at the previous months Cheltenham Festival over conventional fences.
I have my picks for the Grand National - elimination process complete for me:- Teaforthree - jumping is the name of the game and no one does it better in my view - 5lbs lower than last year - thats a first 5 place for this horse and is as near to printing money you can get in a race like this. Big Shu - will stay and I think he will take to the fences and has some class and travels well in his races. I'm thinking ala Silver Birch. Has a nice low racing weight too.. Dangers are a plenty but Long Run for sure especially now they've gone more girly on the fences...
As my Cheltenham drinking buddies will testify I am a big BALTHAZAR KING fan but he is a funny so and so and definitely goes best fresh. Without his cross country effort I would be all over him. He will be one that I back but with nowhere near as much confident if he had had a sixty day rest coming into this!
Sunnyhillboy, Godsmejudge, Mossey Joe, Roi Du Mee, Bog Warrior, Same Difference, Katenko and Goulanes were the eight horses scratched at the confirmation stage
I see one interesting ‘stat’ is that the last 11 winners of the race had all won 3+ races over fences. However, only 2 of these had won more than 5 chases. Recent history would suggest therefore that you want something who has won between 3-5 times over the big ‘uns. Amazing to think as well that over the past 5 campaigns the average SP of the winner has been 45/1! No wonder those old rogues, those bookie chappies, are promoting the race like bally mad.
Listen up people I think I've stumbled on the winner of the national. Wait for it! Walkon. I know there are a lot of negatives ,but there are a few positives. he has course form 2nd in the Topham behind the Henderson fancy, he is lightly raced for a 9 year old finishing in the money in 50% of his races. Weight wise 11 stone and just inside Sticks 60 day stat. 50/1 ew bang on.
An old fave of mine but I rather suspect, Walkon, falls into the same category as Hunt Ball – ‘he wouldn’t get the trip even in the back of Charlie Slater’s cab’. I suspect as well, that rather like Hunt Ball, Walkon is running on the insistence of the owner rather than what the trainer thinks. Although they do have that privilage, of course, because he who pays the piper plays the tune. I love these GN stats. The latest one is that none, that’s none, I say none, of the last 11 winners had won more than a third of the chases they had contested. If they win too many, the moral of that trend is surely, they get too much weight!
In the days of Crisp you could hunt round the first circuit and race properly thereafter, but with the easier fences these days the race is run at a much truer pace, which I believe means you really do have to see out the trip very well AND be handily weighted. A performance like Crisp's would be totally unimaginable thse days and that goes to show just how much the race has changed.
I agree yes in the old days it was plodders and handicappers, nowdays you have got multiple group 1 winners gold cup winners and the like .But you still have to be well handicapped and in a big field you need lots of luck, so I don't dismiss the big priced horses.
