with Carberry now on the dude im thinking twice about the Shu, a good man on here told me that Carberry had eased Shu down prior to the crosscountry race at the festival and was going to be a Shoe in for the shu but left it to late on the day will hold me powder but i am on Night in Milan at 60s and 40s just hope he gets in
Mr Henderson has confirmed his GN horses, saddle monkeys and Corinthian jockey - Long Run (Mr Sam Waley-Cohen), Triolo D’Alene (Barry Geraghty), Hunt Ball (Andy Tinkles) and Shakalakaboomboom (David Bass). 14 out of Mr Henderson’s last 16 GN runners have failed to complete and his recent formline in the race resembles a difficult round on ‘Countdown’ but this term, people, he has Mr Waley-Cohen on his side. Prepare for history to be made...
No he's serious, Cyc, to criticize the Corinthian rider is like pulling teeth for him. please log in to view this image
There is only one chap who revels in the title of the forum’s favourite Corinthian and that is the younger of the Mr Waley-Cohen’s. Cyc, the chap is an all round good egg. Swanny, nice Mr Waley-Cohen dentist type link by the way. 9/10. Meanwhile, its good to see Mr Henderson keeping his jockey bookings ‘in house’ for next week’s GN. It would be great to see Andy Tinkles and the Bass boy chase home dear old Sam W-C. Although in saying that Hunt Ball is going to be very, very and I do mean very, very, stretched to stay the distance. To borrow a chav expression, if I may, ‘He’d struggle to get the trip even in the back of Charlie Slater’s cab’.
I wouldnt be put off Big Shu. I read that the trainer did not have the horse fighting fit for Cheltenham and the horse was sick only a month before the race. I think they have been aiming the horse at the Grand National all season and the only thing i would say is that they could do with a bit of rain before the big day so that the ground isnt too fast for Big Shu. The jockey booked is fairly decent and is going over to school him this week. I think the horse has a massive chance and it might be a good thing that Carberry has deserted him as I would worry with Carberry using his exaggerated waiting tactics on the Shu.
I'm sticking with my short list, minus NR Godsmejudge. So it's: Teaforthree Big Shu Burton Port Mountainous Toying with knocking out Burton Port
I'm finding it extremely difficult this year to be confident about a long list, let alone a short list. I wondered if it might be useful if we could start eliminating some and hopefully chop the field down somewhat. So if you can think of any horse that "can't" win please add it below with reasons.
TIDAL BAY - too old at thirteen to win this and been unsuccessful over the course before. He will take one look at the fences and say **** that I am off for my retirement!
Triolo Dalene and Kruzhlinin. Can't have a 7yo winning over this distance and these fences Swing Bill has less chance than Tidal Bay at 13 years old Sunnyhillboy. Very reluctantly dismissed as he is a favourite of mine. Has been given a great chance by the handicapper but was tailed off before unseating rider last year. I will still be cheering him if he's in with a chance but at 11 he's probably missed his chance. Prince De Beauchene. Doesn't look good enough to me and has now hit 11. Alfie Sherrin. Another 11yo. Can't fancy 11yos unless they are top notch. And surely the best 11yo in the field is Sunnyhillboy. So, basically, that' narrowed it down to 8, 9 and 10yos. Now onto the difficult bit ..............................
put a line through all the inexperienced chasers Rocky Creek Godsmejudge Colbert Station Goulanes Hawkes Point Mountainous Our Father Vesper Bell Rose Of The Moon Bog Warrior you need to be streetwise round Aintree
Monbeg Dude should be 20/1 to complete. Poor jumper (even if the fences are less of a test) and style of running will scupper him. He might have a royal olympian teaching him how to jump but on the evidence of his recent outing at Doncaster he's not learnt much. He may have one of the best jockeys assisting him too but I can't have exaggerated waiting tactics in the Grand National. Strike him off the list folks.
That's 2 of my shortlist gone stick. Using that form tool I keep seeing horses that I didn't even realise were running. One that keeps popping out is Lost Glory. Must take a look at this one (hadn't even considered it).
Well, after a very quick look I reckon that one can be ruled out. All I see is tailed off, blundered, and a poor Aintree record. Gone
Another one I hadn't considered that keeps popping up with that form tool is Mr Moonshine. Having looked at his form, he looks to have a great chance so won't be ruling him out just yet.
Surely you just need to be a hurdler these days? I actually think that you might need to be less experienced around Aintree these days, I think you need a horse who might take a liberty/disdain to the fences to be able to take distance out of horses at the fences. My only worry about T43 is that he is a bit careful at times (2nd last fence last season iirc). I like Rocky Creek more everytime I look at the form.
I was going through some 'experts" opinions on the race. One guy mentioned Soll. He said that he was a massive type who went in last year as an inexperienced animal. So I had a look at last years race, he ran a really nice race for a long way before they got the better of him. He finished 7th. Now as a 9 year old and at about 50-1 he might have an outsider's shout. His form going in this year doesn't seem quite as good though. It might be worth a look at the vid. He's in dark blue. He got back early, but worked his way up to race just off the pace. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVU-pGI20bs
