Thanks Ron, I've been a regular visitor of the forum trying to soak some of the vast knowledge up for a couple of years, I used to go on the heroes site half a decade ago and as now would only crawl out from behind my rock around March time! I only get involved with the racing on Saturdays and I live my life year to year looking forward to the next March!
Cue card injured and misses the festival, 2nd big name to drop this week, fingers crossed there are not many more.
Agreed, best price 7/4 about Bobs Worth now although I'm hoping a couple of them will try to take him on and 3s will be on offer on the morning of the race.
be lucky to get 9/4 on the day, 888sport might "go" 3/1 for a tenner like they did with Irving 4/1 at the weekend there i was getting seriously tempted by the 7/2 conti
got to admire the sheer audacity of badcrooks in the face of heavy drop in profits 6/4 and 5/2 absolute shambles of a turf accountant
the news just makes this race more of a duel than ever. there seems to be a real lack of depth in the race this year. I'm already on Bobs Worth at 5/2 but S Conti is certainly a huge danger
Last Installment just gets more interesting in this race to me. Can't have Bob's Worth at the current prices
Is Last Instalment guaranteed to run now after the goings on with Fenton? I hope he does or the favourite will end up being Evens. I couldn't have Last Instalment for several reasons, he's never even crossed the water never mind visited Prestbury Park before, his latest victory was visually impressive, he jumped great but the pace was slow and he won't get that at Cheltenham. He is not proven at the trip 3m2 around Cheltenham is a lot different to 3 miles at Leopardstown. I'd rather be backing a horse unbeaten at the course and guaranteed to get the trip at 7/4 than take a chance on a horse with many question marks over it at 6s. In the Championship races I can never let the prices of the field dictate which one I will back. A 4/6 winner is better than a 10/1 loser.
Surely the CGC winner is the CGC winner regardless of price?! I never let the price influence me in the Championship races, I'd rather be winning the CGC with an odds on shot than losing on with a 10/1 chance. Last Instalment has too many question marks for me, jumped beautifully last time but that looked like a slow pace, he has never even crossed the water never mind ran at Prestbury Park with that hill and extra 2f. He's racing against an animal who has never been beaten there.
Dunno harchi, I just feel as likely a winner as Bob may be his chances aren't 4 times the chances of Last Installment (as the odds suggest) and formlines with First Lieutenant back that up
I've been banging this particular drum for years Harchi. Price shouldn't influence your opinion of which horse is likeliest to win. Look at the field, look at the form, check out riding arrangements and stable entries and decide which is the probable winner. Only then should the prices influence your decisions, as in how much to stake. Having said that it is VERY difficult not to be influenced by price, so it is understandable that people do.
Winning the Gold Cup can ruin a horse, look at Denman, I know he came back and won big races but he was never quite the same horse who destroyed Kauto Star that day. With Bobs Worth I get the impression that he only really does enough, hes not the sort of horse who is going to demolish a field from half way and leave his heart on the track, he just fiddles round then joins in for the battle up the hill and makes sure he gets his head in front and stays in front. He could go on and win 2 or 3 Gold Cups I think. With a different type of horse you would maybe be worried that the RSA and Gold Cup two years running could finish them but I dont think we have to worry about that with him and after that Lexus run, you have to say he is going to take a power of beating.
Very much agreed with you there Joe! He isnt a flashy horse and will always just do enough to win but thats the key point always does enuff to win! The Betfair run you can forget something was amiss that day but the lexus run he was back to nr his form last march and he will take alot to be beaten and SC jumping will have be top notch to come close to him come the hill!!
Last Instalment could make me look very silly, but I can't have him winning a Gold Cup. Sometimes people look for angles where there aren't any because it seems too easy to say it's a match between Bobs Worth and Conti. I believe it is a match, Bobs Worth is one of the grittiest and dour stayers I've ever seen, and a 3 time festival winner. Conti is a wonderful traveller and a quick accurate jumper with a huge engine, I love him. I've backed Conti at 4/1 and 7/2 and had a saver on BW at 2/1, safest bet in my eyes
That does ring quite true. I heard that Denman nearly collapsed after that gold cup and to be given oxygen. It's no wonder he didn't want to put himself in that place again.
Last Instalment's victory in the Irish Hennessy ties in very closely to the form of Bobs Worth when winning the Lexus. Same track, same trip, same number of fences. Lexus on yielding to soft (winning time: 6:17.10, slow by 35.1 secs), Hennessy on soft to heavy (winning time: 6:26.7, slow by 44.7 secs). The form can be judged through First Lieutenant (beaten 9 lengths by Last Instalment, beaten 1.5 lengths by Bobs Worth) with the caveat that FL is a good ground horse. Lyreen Legend also offers a form line (beaten 8.25L by Bobs Worth and 13.5L by Last Instalment) who seems less ground dependent. The handicapper has raised Last Instalment from 154 to 169 based on his Hennessy win, which I think is justified but still leaves him with a fair bit to find on official ratings, particularly as Bobs Worth seems to save his best for Cheltenham. Given the unknowns for Last Instalment in terms of handling Cheltenham, I think he would need to progress again from the Hennessy (entirely possible) AND really take to Cheltenham (very difficult to assess - has won at Punchestown which has undulations and has won going left handed) in order to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I think at 6/1 he is still a decent e/w bet given the paucity of opposition.
