I am having a real problem with this race as everything about it says leave it alone and don't bet which is not something I usually have a problem with, it's one of those races however that you wait for and so to not have an interest seems a shame. I think the problem is this Long Run is probably the best 3 mile horse in the field but can jump badly when under pressure and 7-4 is not really value when taking into account as has been pointed out that he is in fact ridden by a dentist. Cue Card is a horse I really like but I must admit on watching all his previous races the urge to run him over 3 miles would not have occured to me. He could actually improve for the step up but it is taking a big leap of faith to ask him to do so in the biggest race outside of the Cheltenham festival. Riverside Theatre is clearly a talented horse but is he top drawer? He is a certainty to be placed I feel but I think that is the best you could hope for, and he is not an each way price. Grand Crus is again a class horse who looked to have unlimited potential but has failed to deliver on the biggest occasions, the wind op could have done the trick but once again it's a big leap of faith but he is a backable price for what is clearly a horse with the ability to win. Captain Chris This horse could have improved and could be worth a bet as he was impressive first time out when i thought he also looked like he would come on a little for the run. He must however prove he can still have enough speed to do what he did at 2m3f at the end of 3 miles at the top level. His form says he will run well but drop away between the last two fences. I think on reflection Long Run will fight it out with Riverside theatre and just get the better of the horse in the last half furlong with Captain Chris running Third.
Agree with stick that River Maigue is a serrious chance in the earlier race for Nicky Henderson, a hurdler who will love Kempton IMO.
Are we still debating this race? I had it sown up 2 weeks ago after a quick glance, no study required when you know the animals, thats the great thing about the good races. I told you 4/1 was excellent value, I told you it would be no bigger than 9/4 on the day, I told Sir Des Champs wouldnt be running, I told you if he runs his race he would win comfortably. Best horse in the race, best form in the race, he isnt a bad jumper, hes a low jumper, he is capable of putting in very quick jumps, because he dosent leave much room for error when jumping, his amatuer jockey can get flustered and that is where the mistakes come from. If Barry Gerraghty had ridden Long Run his whole career people would be saying he jumps like a cat. As long as SWC stays calm, and the horse gets into a nice rhythm there will be no problem, such is the amount he has in hand of this field, he can probably make a mistake or two and still win easy. The - his jumping might get put under pressure - line is absolute nonsense. 2/1 is still a very fair price, do yourself a favour 4/6 in the masters book
Although I have backed Long Run I do still have a niggling thought that he might find one too good tomorrow. I think the ground may be a problem and Riverside Theatre possibly the main threat Great supporting races too - Dynaste & countrywide flame look unopposable
Like Wooly I have the Henderson duo in RFC betting. Can't see beyond these two, much as I'd like Cue Card to do something special, I think he has 3rd place at best
