As said before Oddy, this time of year is not a good time for punters (unless maybe you have inside knowledge). It is easier to be confident when the form is reliable and even more so when the going was consistently soft/heavy. Most of my money was won by horses who were not only best on form but also best suited by the going, and were progressive. Those conditions have changed now. This thread is also meant to be educational so that any lesser experienced members can see the thinking that goes on. You are right that I am not so confident but you may remember that before I started stage 2, I wasn't really confident about starting it for the reasons explained above. So I am having to be extra cautious and patient. If it was real money I probably would not be betting in this part of the season. All the more credit to Ardent with his appraise system that seems to be immune.
9/4 best price for Rangi. In a Class 5 event, not very generous up against a colt that ran a close second in a Class 2 with the winner going on to finish a close second in a Group 3. Will watch with interest. Sanjuro is one of 4 that could end up favourite. Can't be a confident win bet and at 4/1 no ew option. Watch only.
Rangi ended up 7/4 f and ran a very good race, running on 5th just over a length behind the winner. The one I was a afraid of finished 6th. Sanjuro won at 4/1. Would have been nice but wasn't too sure about it so can't complain. On balance, it has paid to leave alone the ones I wasn't sure of.
Yet again, forced to not have a bet by this bloody unpredictable weather affecting the going. Rex Imperator would have been my banker bet tomorrow but the going at Bath has gone good to soft, soft in places and I can't risk him on ground he hasn't encountered.
Another loser avoided. Should be laying these. Provided it's a decent price and not too soft could be looking at another New Approach colt running at Longchamp tomorrow. Quiet Diplomacy. Review tomorrow
Sod it I'm going to risk it Lingfield 16.30 Debating Society £400 win at 11/4 (PP). Won cosily at Epsom over 10f on good going after flopping on soft. Good to firm tomorrow and Lingfield is similar to Epsom so hopefully will be suited to the track.
Thought it would shorten but could have got 3s. Never mind. At least it won (again, cosily). £1100 profit. Balances Betting Bank: £2,700 Piggy Bank: £5,100
Fairly sweet on Mazeydd tomorrow Kempton 20.10. But question mark re surface (no racecourse experience on AW). Therefore will leave.
York 14.55 If this was at Ripon I would be fairly confident. It's not so a bit risky. At 6/1 PP I'll take a chance £500 win Pepper Lane
Crikey, that Mince must be pretty useful. Eased down and still broke the course record. Pepper Lane unplaced and 8/1. Big mistake. £500 lost.
Even though i dont bet on every horse i fancy, thank god, it amazing what happens to your train of thought when you dont hit a few winners. I notice that when im struggling i tend to just look at the price first then the race, but the odds start getting shorter and shorter until your picking 8/11 shots just to get a winner. I suppose its to make me feel like im picking winners, gets my confidence back and then i start looking at races slightly different... Its been a good thread and experiment to watch Ron...
Good day today - both won at decent odds and the bank's looking healthier Betting Bank: £2,200 Piggy Bank: £11,850 PS BPG courtesy of Heis.
Sod it. I'm in profit and 3/1 Sole Power looks a stonking bet. Another £1,000 win Sole Power at 3/1 (WH) - Nothing to lose. That leaves me with just £200 left to bet with but £11,850 safe in the Piggy Bank
You beauty £5k profit. Two excellent days leaving the balances as follows: Betting Bank: £2,200 Piggy Bank: £16,850
