Sunderland or Coventry

[Yorkiegit26]

We WILL be relegated this year I think pretty much everyone has accepted it now, but what next?
Are we really of the opinion that we can simply regroup and get promoted in the next couple of seasons

Firstly to say that this squad needs a complete overhaul is a massive understatement but if it happened do you think we can change just about everything football wise and produce a team that is capable of getting promoted

Personally I don't think this will happen, I believe that one of our biggest challenges next season will be to avoid relegation to the 4th tier, we don't have the resources or the will from our beloved owner to re-build and do a Sunderland and bounce back. I feel we will be spending several more years in the wilderness before coming back to the championship like Coventry

This club is dying, and at 65 years of age I fear I wont be seeing them back in my lifetime

RIP Ipswich town and thankyou ME

 

[stretchyboy]

I think that may be a little bit extreme, in that you won't see them back in your lifetime. At this point in time, it's very difficult to say which way we'll go next season. If Lambert stays (which he has said he will) and we hold on to all our young players (Bishop, Dozzell, Downes, Lankaster, Wolfy) as well as the ones we signed this season, in Edwards, Jackson and Harrison (who will more than likely be suited more to L1) then i believe we will have a pretty decent shout at coming back up. I don't think we need wholsale changes to come back up next season, BUT, we will do if we want to maintain that progression and stay up the following season.
We have a good group of young players at the club, (which you can also include Emmanuel and Kenlock), so if we can start bedding them to play together over the next 18m, then our future won't seem as doomed as has been reported on here

 

[Bigalreigned]

More likely a Sheffield United, a few Seasons to regroup.

As Stretchy says holding on to our best youngsters is key..... but knowing our owner he'll cash in where possible and I wouldn't be suprised to see Dozzell,at least, wanting away.

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Coventry had an extraordinary set of circumstances and I don’t think that’s likely to happen to us for as long as that.

I think it’s entirely possible for us to struggle in League One next season if we carry on as we are.

If we bounce back up then Evans is going to hang around and we’ll dither between the Championship and League One like Charlton.

If we struggle next season then at least he might wake up and walk.

 

[Scowey]

do a Sunderland and bounce back. I feel we will be spending several more years in the wilderness before coming back to the championship like Coventry

I see what you're trying to say, but you've used two very strange examples.. Sunderland haven't "bounced back" yet and could well find themselves in that league for a number of years if they don't go up this year or next, particularly when their parachute payments dry up... They are showing positive signs but the job is not close to being done yet.

Coventry were relegated from the Championship in 2012 and spent 5 years in L1 before a solitary season in L2 and then regaining their place in L1.. They could make a late charge for the play offs or bumble around L1 for eternity and never make it back to the championship (in our lifetimes). But they are probably the obvious example of what we want to avoid.

The likes of Leicester, Forest, Charlton, Sheff Wed, Southampton, Barnsley, Norwich, Sheff Utd and to a lesser extent Leeds are probably the better comparisons that we should be looking to learn from

 

[Nuggets]

I think this squad, as it stands, should be good enough for an upper mid-table finish, and potentially a play off push if we get a bit lucky. The concern for me is that we're going to have another summer transfer window that will be crucial to our chances of progression. Unlike last summer, Lambert is going to have to get those signings mostly spot on. We're also going to have to cut a lot of the wage budget, so thankfully we've got a few players with expired contracts in the summer which should make that process slightly easier than what he could have been. While I think keeping hold of some of our youngsters is ideal, we need to find that right blend of youth and experience. If Collins and Judge have good half seasons with us, and are prepared to play in the third tier for a realistic wage, then I'd definitely snap them up. It might be too optimistic though, considering both are easily Championship standard footballers.

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Luton Town were pretty much equivalent with Norwich City as a club until the 90s. It looks like they will be leap frogging us back into the Championship after spending most of the last 20 years outside the second tier and 30 years outside the top flight.

We shouldn't be complacent.

We are a far poorer side than Sunderland were last year. I don't think the summer makes a lot of difference with Lambert still in charge. We are likely to see some of the better ones in the squad now move on, even.

 

[Mike_Holmes1990]

I think this squad, as it stands, should be good enough for an upper mid-table finish, and potentially a play off push if we get a bit lucky. The concern for me is that we're going to have another summer transfer window that will be crucial to our chances of progression. Unlike last summer, Lambert is going to have to get those signings mostly spot on. We're also going to have to cut a lot of the wage budget, so thankfully we've got a few players with expired contracts in the summer which should make that process slightly easier than what he could have been. While I think keeping hold of some of our youngsters is ideal, we need to find that right blend of youth and experience. If Collins and Judge have good half seasons with us, and are prepared to play in the third tier for a realistic wage, then I'd definitely snap them up. It might be too optimistic though, considering both are easily Championship standard footballers.

The first sentence terrifies me, if all goes well in the summer the best we can hopefully for is a season like we've had for the past decade, just a league lower...

 

[Alhare]

Good topic. I agree with Stretchy; we do have a decent L1 side. And that's basically why were not doing very well in the division above.

Big question is can we keep them together/afford to retain them/pursuade them a season in L1 is a 'good thing for their career' and offer hope we'll be on the move upwards pretty sharp and where they can earn more money. i dont have a problem with that-we all work, we all move roles or jobs in search of better pay and/or conditions if the chance arises.

Now, here is where my opinion runs out of knowledge to support it.

I have no idea about the real truth of the 'hidden side' of football; the FFP rules, the Cat 1 Status fiasco (so many unanswered questions still). Nothing quite adds up for me and I'd like to understand. I thought about posting on Sunderland forum but thought better of it-they look like they are full of chest pumping satisfaction without asking too many difficult questions about how they're signing all these decent players having had a 50m debt and relegation to L1.

I mean, how the **** have they signed Grigg for 4m????

Sunderland are a L1 club, they must be haemorrhaging money with the paltry TV income and the errors they made in every sense, Jack Rodwell being on 70k a week for 4 years and playing about twice being the epitome of transfer screw ups. they screwed up worse than we did but we'll be in that league next season and i dont see us in a position to sign 4m strikers.

We dont have two pennies to rub together; apparently its all to do with FFP what the owner can spend: Wikipedia succinctly puts it:

The UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations (FFP) were established to prevent professional football clubs spending more than they earn in the pursuit of success and in doing so getting into financial problems which might threaten their long-term survival.

So how on earth can sunderland do it?

I just think the dice are loaded. that massive 'sponsorship' deal by those arabs to Man city (and PSG) which gives them the "income" to offset their huge transfer fees against is a complete scam. they're not even investigating it anymore as far as i know. makes a mockery of FFP and totally skews the sport.

I have a horrible feeling that the honest blood, sweat and tears expended on a match day yards away from they eyes of thousands of people covers up a multitude of dodgy financial sins behind the scenes and its just not a fair playing field.

Now maybe if it was us, somehow, singing 4m strikers and seemingly 'rebuilding' i'd turn a blind eye but i think id still have a nagging feeling something wasn't quite right...

 

[stretchyboy]

I agree with you 100% Alhare. FFP is a total sham. I mean, look at the QPR fiasco. Firstly they were fined £40m, which was later reduced to £17m and given a transfer embargo in one January window (but they could still sign a free transfer if one player left!!!!). The fine is also payable over a 10 yr period, so only paying 1.7m a year - I think the FA are too scared to punish all the clubs that have broken FFP rules, as there are so many that will be affected by it (not us though, we've been too nice - which is kinda ironic with ME's involvement in dodgy dealings)

Sunderland are a slightly different kettle of fish. They still attract crowds of 30k every game (they even got 46k once this season) and have around 23,000 season ticket holders. So even though they don't have the TV money (although they've probably been on SKY more than we have this season), they still have a huge income plus they sold something in the region of £22m worth of players this season, which affords them the option of spending 4m on oneplayer.

Town, on the other hand, have no real assets. Maybe a couple of youngsters worth a couple of mill each, but thats it, so we won't be in a position to offload to re-invest. We'll have to try and hold on to most of our first team squad, and hope that they finally click and fulfill some of their potential.
PL and ME have a lot of work to do this summer, but, if they can work their magic, i think we'll have a good enough team to at least make the play offs next season.

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Good topic. I agree with Stretchy; we do have a decent L1 side. And that's basically why were not doing very well in the division above.

Big question is can we keep them together/afford to retain them/pursuade them a season in L1 is a 'good thing for their career' and offer hope we'll be on the move upwards pretty sharp and where they can earn more money. i dont have a problem with that-we all work, we all move roles or jobs in search of better pay and/or conditions if the chance arises.

Now, here is where my opinion runs out of knowledge to support it.

I have no idea about the real truth of the 'hidden side' of football; the FFP rules, the Cat 1 Status fiasco (so many unanswered questions still). Nothing quite adds up for me and I'd like to understand. I thought about posting on Sunderland forum but thought better of it-they look like they are full of chest pumping satisfaction without asking too many difficult questions about how they're signing all these decent players having had a 50m debt and relegation to L1.

I mean, how the **** have they signed Grigg for 4m????

Sunderland are a L1 club, they must be haemorrhaging money with the paltry TV income and the errors they made in every sense, Jack Rodwell being on 70k a week for 4 years and playing about twice being the epitome of transfer screw ups. they screwed up worse than we did but we'll be in that league next season and i dont see us in a position to sign 4m strikers.

We dont have two pennies to rub together; apparently its all to do with FFP what the owner can spend: Wikipedia succinctly puts it:

The UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations (FFP) were established to prevent professional football clubs spending more than they earn in the pursuit of success and in doing so getting into financial problems which might threaten their long-term survival.

So how on earth can sunderland do it?

I just think the dice are loaded. that massive 'sponsorship' deal by those arabs to Man city (and PSG) which gives them the "income" to offset their huge transfer fees against is a complete scam. they're not even investigating it anymore as far as i know. makes a mockery of FFP and totally skews the sport.

I have a horrible feeling that the honest blood, sweat and tears expended on a match day yards away from they eyes of thousands of people covers up a multitude of dodgy financial sins behind the scenes and its just not a fair playing field.

Now maybe if it was us, somehow, singing 4m strikers and seemingly 'rebuilding' i'd turn a blind eye but i think id still have a nagging feeling something wasn't quite right...

Some interesting points.

League One clubs aren’t subject to FFP. They have a constraint only on wages (there are probably some other regulations about being a going concern but not aware of anything above and beyond any type of company). This means they can spend 60% of annual turnover that includes matchday revenue, commercial (sponsorship, merch etc, Tv) and net transfer income on wages.

Sunderland regularly get crowds of over 30,000 - something like 36,000 for Luton and highest attendance of 46,000.

So for Sunderland I think attracting players to League One is more of a problem than capping finances.


I don’t know about the huge Premier League or Championship losses for Sunderland though - they have lost something like £150m on transfers - perhaps there was some kind of breach there, or perhaps Tv money and parachute payments covered enough of the losses.


No doubt the Sponorship thing was a thing for Man City, but Ipswich are NOWHERE near the threshold for Championship clubs that allows an investor to put £8m into the club and to be a £5m away from the FFP calculation. In other words a Championship club can lose £13m per year after the calculation of costs vs revenue (that could have a dodgy sponsorship deal on the top) and not be in breach.

Marcus Evans does not want to invest money but Town are not anywhere near close to being prevented from doing so.

 

[Scowey]

Sunderland still have Parachute payments for this season having been relegated from the Premier League in 2017

I believe they get reduced numbers each year over a 3 year period, so are in the midst of season 2 of their additional funding, having seen a drop from last year and will see another drop next season. I don't know the exact figures, but I'd imagine that not getting promoted this season will seriously affect their ability to operate and could see them wallow in L1 for a few seasons as they try and offload some saleable assets / highest earners to try and steady the ship.

 

[Westlake33]

An interesting one - Hampy points out the revenue that we'd have to comply with. Season one you're allowed a slight adjustment -
* 75% of revenue allowed to be spent on wages etc
* Players in FIRST YEAR of contract do NOT count - so Nolan / Jackson / Harrison / Hurst's shower of rubbish basically don't count to the figures.
* Media revenue would drop from £8 mill to around £1 mill, so we'd have to get that wage bill down somewhat as we're about to lose £7 mill revenue.....

From then on, second year etc is 60% and everyone counts - so first year, if we perhaps sell one / two we should have a decent chance perhaps of coming back up. Not that I think we will first time, but we should due to having better revenue than a lot of the league have a good chance - ideally Sunderland / Pompey + Chalrton go up this season.......

I can see perhaps something akin to Sheff Utd in League 1, but without championship success. I don't see us tearing up League 1 then being top 6 in the champ, no.

Difficult time to be a town fan.