There looks to be little of betting interest in two of the three pattern races at HQ today and I think that the best bet on the card runs in a handicap. In the third race (2:55), GUNMETAL won well over course and distance at the Craven meeting and can follow up with similar conditions prevailing and race fitness guaranteed. The handicapper has taken a dim view of that easy win, so the odds should not be too poor.
On the ratings the best horse in the Dahlia Stakes is Somehow but her form, including a Group 3 win last term, is all on easy ground. Nezwaah makes her four year old bow but all her wins have been on artificial surfaces so I cannot back her on turf. Muffri’Ha is consistent and won a Group 3 as a four year old but she has four places to her name already this year and seems hard to win with so that leads me to Skiffle, fifth in the Oaks last year, winner of a listed race and surely not kept in training just for fun – what deters me from betting is the seven and a half lengths she was behind Somehow on easy ground last year.
I cannot find any reason to bet in the Pretty Polly Stakes as the two that have raced this term ran moderately and three of the four seasonal debutants could be anything. Obviously any filly that wins convincingly will be an instant Oaks contender.
In the 1000 Guineas, the two main trials provide much of the form. Fred Darling winner Dabyah has been re-routed to France but the runner up Urban Fox and fifth Queen Kindly come here, although the latter is a doubtful stayer but as Richard Fahey says in his column “they only get the one chance to run in the race”. Nell Gwyn winner Daban is re-opposed by runner up Unforgetable Lady, third Poet’s Vanity and sixth Kilmah but I see no grounds for any of them reversing the positions. The form of the Irish contingent is very convoluted, as they all seem to have beaten each other at one time or another. Intricately won the Moyglare beating Hydrangea and Rhododendron. Then Rhododendron beat Hydrangea in the Fillies’ Mile having done the same in the Debutante. This year, Hydrangea beat Winter (second) and Intricately (fourth) in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial. The once-raced Talaayeb is very much the dark horse here but I am going to side with Frankel’s daughter FAIR EVA to remind Roger Charlton what it is like to win a Classic – blindly in the hope that she does not disappoint like so many of the other Frankel three year olds to date.
- guaranteed 
