Daily Racing Thread Sunday 7th. July 2019

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
Really only one race worth mentioning on Sunday: Deauville 2:25 – Prix Jean Prat.

I was only stating on Saturday that they would surely pack Too Darn Hot off to stud as he may not have trained on, and here he is favourite for Group 1 glory in France.

In all honesty, the home defence looks very feeble and the British layers’ odds are a fair reflection of their mediocrity. There are sufficient raiders to ensure that this will not be the usual married-man’s gallop followed by a sprint. I think Rab Havlin will make plenty of use of Azano.

The best French form available is Grainges fourth in the Poulains, but he was subsequently beaten at Caen over a mile and a half.

Since I cannot be having Gosden’s juvenile champion, the obvious alternative is SPACE BLUES.

This is a Group 1 in name only (I am going to get fed up of typing that this year!), so being beaten in a photo for the (Group 3) Jersey Stakes may be good enough here, if this is not too soon.

If Too Darn Hot does not prove me wrong, this surely is his last race. On his juvenile form he should be 1/3 here.
 
QuarterMoonII said:
Really only one race worth mentioning on Sunday: Deauville 2:25 – Prix Jean Prat.

I was only stating on Saturday that they would surely pack Too Darn Hot off to stud as he may not have trained on, and here he is favourite for Group 1 glory in France.

In all honesty, the home defence looks very feeble and the British layers’ odds are a fair reflection of their mediocrity. There are sufficient raiders to ensure that this will not be the usual married-man’s gallop followed by a sprint. I think Rab Havlin will make plenty of use of Azano.

The best French form available is Grainges fourth in the Poulains, but he was subsequently beaten at Caen over a mile and a half.

Since I cannot be having Gosden’s juvenile champion, the obvious alternative is SPACE BLUES.

This is a Group 1 in name only (I am going to get fed up of typing that this year!), so being beaten in a photo for the (Group 3) Jersey Stakes may be good enough here, if this is not too soon.

If Too Darn Hot does not prove me wrong, this surely is his last race. On his juvenile form he should be 1/3 here.
Click to expand...

Too Darn Hot has gone from 126 down to 115 this season. Space Blues started the year on 90 and is now rated 112. They are horses who are headed towards parity at the moment.

Space Blues was added to the Derby entries early in the season but he didn't stay 10F on seasonal debut and that ship sailed. Beaten at long odds-on next time he got his career back on track with a facile win in a Handicap before a narrow but slightly cosy win at Epsom in Listed company. In the Jersey Stakes I thought he got a less than ideal ride but he came there and I thought he might win it but he just got pipped. I have pondered for most of the season as to whether he would try a mile because of the lack of options at 7F and all along I was unaware that the Prix Jean Prat had been reduced from a mile to 7F this season. It is a race that has morphed a few times in its history and maybe they will eventually make it a hurdles race :D

As well as failing to reach his juvenile form this season, Too Darn Hot has had a right mixed bag of targets. The Dante was a poor choice according to his trainer and Gosden admitted that is was "Very stupid" to run the horse in the Irish Guineas so soon after. The St James Palace was another disappointment and the fact that they are dropping to 7F now has a look of desperation about it.

This looks a weak affair and having put Space Blues up as a horse to follow this season I have to stand by him here, even if it looks an ambitious target on paper for a 112 rated horse. It is hoped that he can eke out a 5 lbs improved showing today and that might be enough to win it. Too Darn Hot seems no value and his once 36 lbs superior rating on official figures is down to just 3 lbs now. I couldn't have him at 10/11 so it was Space Blues at 7/2. I also had 50p EW on Fabre's Urwald at 50/1 because it seemed a massive price in a race where there seems no real Group 1 star.

Space Blues 7/2

Urwald 50/1 EW for the boil over
 
QuarterMoonII said:
Really only one race worth mentioning on Sunday: Deauville 2:25 – Prix Jean Prat.

I was only stating on Saturday that they would surely pack Too Darn Hot off to stud as he may not have trained on, and here he is favourite for Group 1 glory in France.

In all honesty, the home defence looks very feeble and the British layers’ odds are a fair reflection of their mediocrity. There are sufficient raiders to ensure that this will not be the usual married-man’s gallop followed by a sprint. I think Rab Havlin will make plenty of use of Azano.

The best French form available is Grainges fourth in the Poulains, but he was subsequently beaten at Caen over a mile and a half.

Since I cannot be having Gosden’s juvenile champion, the obvious alternative is SPACE BLUES.

This is a Group 1 in name only (I am going to get fed up of typing that this year!), so being beaten in a photo for the (Group 3) Jersey Stakes may be good enough here, if this is not too soon.

If Too Darn Hot does not prove me wrong, this surely is his last race. On his juvenile form he should be 1/3 here.
Click to expand...

Watan 33/1 ew for me in this. Although I think TDH will likely win for Frankie I hopeful mine will grab at least a place
 
market rasen,3 15:

none of these is entirely convincing on their recent efforts,but GAME LINE ran not too bad in a slightly better race than this last time out,and if he can build on it today,surely has a good chance..
 
Decent show from Too Darn Hot but it was a pretty weak race. No excuses for Space Blues, he just didn't find the required improvement and even if he had Too Darn Hot would have won anyway.

I reckon the Handicapper will have to put Too Darn Hot back up a few pounds now, even if this was a weak Group 1 field.
 
It shows how quickly things can change in Horse Racing. Wind the clock back and we see that Royal Marine was a well backed favourite for the Craven Stakes and prominent/fancied by some in the Guineas Market. There he was today a 60/1 shot and tailed off in last place. They took the horse to Meydan in January and he stank the place out as odds-on favourite. Whoever had that idea now seems to be looking at a horse who has deteriorated at least a stone this year.
 
market rasen,3 45:

not the most original choice here,but NIKKI STEEL ticks a lot of boxes today.although still winless this season,he produced some useful efforts so far,and his last win,which came at this course at the end of march,is working out quite well,so a definite shout.also on his last winning mark.
 
rasen,4 20:

VALUE AT RISK and indian temple have already met this season,wehre the latter was 5 lenghts in front of VALUE AT RISK,but the skelton horse is better off this time around,and even if better was expected last time out,he has that touch of class,which might be deciding today.
 
rasen,4 50:

quite a few to be considered here,but my choice,MORE BUCKS,doesnt look too obvious at first glance,but hes much better treated over hurdles,and with his useful chase form,has a decent shout today.has won the summer plate here last season,so the ability is there,he just has to raise his game a bit this season.but his yard is in good form too,so not dismissed out of hand here..
 
Grendel said:
It shows how quickly things can change in Horse Racing. Wind the clock back and we see that Royal Marine was a well backed favourite for the Craven Stakes and prominent/fancied by some in the Guineas Market. There he was today a 60/1 shot and tailed off in last place. They took the horse to Meydan in January and he stank the place out as odds-on favourite. Whoever had that idea now seems to be looking at a horse who has deteriorated at least a stone this year.
Click to expand...

Let us hope that Summer Romance spends the winter in Newmarket
 
You must log in or register to see images
You must log in or register to see images


Too Darn hot was carrying 3lb more than Far above and took 12.56 secs to run the extra furlong. Although TDH did win comfortably. Can't really conclude much from that, other than maybe Far Above, who won over 7f at Newmarket as a 2yo, might have won the G1 race
 
Ron said:
You must log in or register to see images
You must log in or register to see images


Too Darn hot was carrying 3lb more than Far above and took 12.56 secs to run the extra furlong. Although TDH did win comfortably. Can't really conclude much from that, other than maybe Far Above, who won over 7f at Newmarket as a 2yo, might have won the G1 race
Click to expand...

I never saw either race in real time, but you may be comparing chalk and cheese there.

The official time for the 13:35 Prix Kistena was 1m08:73. Watching the Equidia recording of the race, they covered the last 200m in 11.97secs, the previous 200m in 11.06secs and the 200m before that in 11.13secs.

The official time for the 14:52 Prix Jean Prat was 1m21.29. Watching the Equidia recording (same sections so same margin of error), they covered the last 200m in 11.69secs (0.28 faster), the previous 200m in 11.14s and the 200m before that in 11.25secs.

As Equidia only appear to do times at 200m, 400m, 600m and 1000m, deducting one 1000m time from the other suggests that the first 200m of the Jean Prat was 11.73secs but I do not think that is a reliable indicator. The first 800m of the Jean Prat averages out at 11.8secs for each 200m, whilst the Kistena averages 11.48secs. The fastest part of the Kistena was between 400m and 200m out; and that is also the case for the Jean Prat as both winners challenged at the same distance from the line.

What is noticeable is the difference in the way the races were run. In the Kristena, there was just one group and Far Above was held up going keenly behind the leaders, the first 200m was clearly slow (13.07secs) and so was the last 200m (11.97secs). In the Jean Prat, the field split into two groups, Too Darn Hot beginning in the centre group but drifting across to the stands side group 400 metres out. With the race in the bag over a hundred metres from home, Frankie was not giving the winner a hard time and still found a quarter of a second on the earlier race where Far Above was being ridden to the line to hold off the runner-up.

With James Doyle accepting second on Space Blues, the three length margin is probably fair, so given that the runner-up must have improved on his official 112 rating, Too Darn Hot ran to something around the 120 mark or better without having a very hard time.
 
Good analysis QM. His shoulder layback isn't great which is what restricts him distance wise
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back