Tips / Bets Sunday 5th. July 2020

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I love Enable to bits but first time out, against Ghaiyyath, over 10f. Too much of an ask
 
If Enable runs her usual 125+ race she will win comfortably. Ghaiyyath is dog and his rating is a joke, Japans 122 is also a joke rating.

I hoped for racings sake that English King would be a star 3yo but even given that he was poorly placed in a false race and ran well, hes obviously not a champion. The French classics look unlikely to produce an Arc contender and everything looks laid out for Enable to win her 3rd Arc. She ran a winning race last year, too close to a suicidal pace and running her finish on what was a dead rail, almost every race on the card was won down the outside where Waldgeist picked up the pieces of a pace collapse.

Love has done me a good turn this season, on at 20/1 for both classics, but im far from convinced by that Oaks race, 2 pacemakers having their own pointless race, Frankly Darling not handling the track, Love was left to beat a bang average Enistymon by daylight. Will wait to see her in a proper Group 1 race because the Oaks was just as much of a farce as the Derby.

Enable will likely end up evens for the Arc again and barring extreme ground we have not seen anything good enough to beat her. Id fancy Magical against these 3yos as well, proper rock solid mid 120s horse.
 
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Haydock
100 snazzy jazzy 7/4
240 cabaletta 5/2
350 lincoln park 6/1
Doncaster
325 seen the light 6/1
Sandown
335 enable 6/5
405 spotify 8/1
 
The Sunday card at leafy Esher looks a lot more appealing than Saturday’s Epsom Classic card, although the main thing to contend with may be the wind if it is as strong as in East Yorkshire.

Looking at the Henry II Stakes, does CROSS COUNTER look like a license to steal money? There are three horses in the race that are going to ensure that it is a proper staying race, and whilst the former Melbourne Cup winner was a remote third to Stradivarius in the Gold Cup, he is still clearly the best horse here, un-penalised, and the early 13/8 looks generous. The drop back to two miles will help the disappointing Withhold and I am not sure that Dashing Willoughby is actually good enough.

The handicapper has decided that Dark Vision’s Royal Hunt Cup win makes him 3lb better than the runner-up MONTATHAM in the Coral Challenge. Obviously that was a straight mile and today is round the turn but the form has already been franked by the third; and my selection went into the race having been raised 10lb for his previous win. I would be a lot happier if Crowley was not on MONTATHAM but he has to win on one with my money on sooner or later. Qaysar was down the field in the Hunt Cup whilst several of the others are out of form or on seasonal bow. With my luck the other Hamdan runner, Mutasaamy, will step up on his win on the Kempton sand even though raised 10lb.

Normally the Eclipse would be one of our first chances to see the Classic generation against their elders but it is not allowed for this year, so title holder Enable faces six rivals, five her juniors. Gosden has already got his ‘not fully fit’ excuses in for the mare so I expect the price to drift. There is no obvious reason why Regal Reality should improve on last year’s third and he has also been behind Japan. Aidan O’Brien’s first string Japan was behind Enable in the 2019 Arc but will have to come on for his mediocre effort at Royal Ascot (Bangkok just behind) if he is to dethrone the Queen. The Japanese mare Deirdre looks out of her depth (surprise win in the Nassau aside), as does the consistent Magic Wand. So ultimately this may come down to what happens with Ghaiyyath, who likes to go from the front. I have a feeling that Magic Wand may be sent to fight him for the lead as a spoiler. He showed his rivals a clean set of hooves in the Coronation Cup but can he give Frankie the slip?

I am sure it will not have escaped anyone’s attention that Andre Fabre has a runner in the Coral Gala Stakes. Can Magny Cours do a circuit of Esher quicker than his English rivals? The problem with the local defence is that many of them have question marks against them. Will Fox Chairman settle? Will Dubai Warrior translate his A/W form to turf? Will Aspetar be fit enough? Global Giant won a four-runner A/W race on stable debut and this is his level. Last time he was seen, SPOTIFY was third in a Meydan Group 1 behind Barney Roy and that may be good enough in this Listed race – if he can reproduce his Dubai form here – and he is worth a punt as the outsider of the field.
 
Benoit Blanc said:
If Enable runs her usual 125+ race she will win comfortably. Ghaiyyath is dog and his rating is a joke, Japans 122 is also a joke rating.

I hoped for racings sake that English King would be a star 3yo but even given that he was poorly placed in a false race and ran well, hes obviously not a champion. The French classics look unlikely to produce an Arc contender and everything looks laid out for Enable to win her 3rd Arc. She ran a winning race last year, too close to a suicidal pace and running her finish on what was a dead rail, almost every race on the card was won down the outside where Waldgeist picked up the pieces of a pace collapse.

Love has done me a good turn this season, on at 20/1 for both classics, but im far from convinced by that Oaks race, 2 pacemakers having their own pointless race, Frankly Darling not handling the track, Love was left to beat a bang average Enistymon by daylight. Will wait to see her in a proper Group 1 race because the Oaks was just as much of a farce as the Derby.

Enable will likely end up evens for the Arc again and barring extreme ground we have not seen anything good enough to beat her. Id fancy Magical against these 3yos as well, proper rock solid mid 120s horse.
Click to expand...

so running the race faster than any previous horse is unconvincing ??
 
Anybody fancy Emmet McNamara for a weekend Classic double with Fort Myers in the Prix Du Jockey Club? The betting suggests that it is a very uncompetitive renewal with only four at single figure prices; and clearly Poulains winner Victor Ludorum should take all the beating. Christophe Ferland’s Pao Alto has taken a more conventional route to Chantilly via the Prix de la Force and will need to step up on his previous efforts as will John Gosden’s Newmarket Stakes winner Mishriff. Aidan O’Brien clearly does not fancy the race with only two representatives and Seamie Heffernan on a maiden with a first time visor.

In the following Prix De Diane, the prize could well be exported to Ireland with the markets leaders Coronation Stakes winner Alpine Star and Irish 1000 Guineas winner Peaceful. It is hard to see Curragh runner-up Fancy Blue reversing the form just because of the extra distance and the home challenge looks almost as confusing as the form for the Derby was yesterday. The Aga Khan’s two fillies Ebaiyra and Vadsena have both run three times in minor races, most recently at less than Group 2 level, whilst the Fabre representative Solsticia was third in the Prix Saint Alary with the Fabrice Chappet trained runner-up Magic Attitude also in the field. If it does not work out for the two Irish fillies, Jean Claude Rouget could collect again with the unbeaten RAABIHAH, easy winner of a Longchamp Listed race over this distance last time. For betting this looks like a race for small stakes with so much potential rather than solid proven form.
 
Ew Lucky 15/Acca:

3:15 Haydock - Scarlet Dragon 14/1
3:50 Haydock - Three Saints Bay 7/1
4:00 Doncaster - Ginger Jam 8/1
5:30 Fairyhouse - Smash Williams 7/1

And then two at decent prices that i think could go well:

5:45 Cork - Arthurian Flame 22/1
6:00 Fairyhouse - Red Cymbal 16/1

Ew singles and Ew double
 
Am all over LAZULI in the 1.50 He looked very good LTO. Has been gelded, which seems to have done wonders won over c+d going away last time and winners of that race has a great record (Blue point to be one) in this race. And just think there is more improvement in him than TB
 
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My bets of the day come in the Eclipse, where I think we will see a special performance from Enable, but the horse I think that is most interesting is Japan.

The race is one of the special events where we know that one horse is going to go out and try and dominate a world class field, and because of that, it means that we are likely to see a quickly run race that brings the best horses to the fore.

Ghaiyyath is the front runner who is very high class, he ripped apart that Newmarket Coronation race with his relentless galloping, but two points need to be raised about that race -

1 - Newmarket was very fast ground that meant those making the pace had a massive advantage. He was given an enterprising ride, and those in behind weren't able to get anywhere near him. If he is able to dictate in that way again, he will be a very difficult horse to peg back.
2 - It was a first run of the season for them, and Ghaiyyath looked primed for the race and perhaps we could suggest that those in behind were less prepared/focussed on winning that race. Stradivarius would be the prime example of that, and given that his target was well known, he probably ran as well as could be expected. If AVD wasn't fully primed (and he showed at Royal Ascot that he is a pretty moderate rated Derby winner), then it would be easy to suggest that Ghaiyyath fell upon a weaker race on debut than he would get in a normal Group 1. Today is no ordinary Group 1 with Enable in opposition.

You then need to take into account that AOB runs Magic Wand, who I am sure will race prominently too. She won't be running purely as a spoiler, but it would do Japan no harm if they went a competitive gallop up front and set it up for horses who can stay very well.

I think Enable is a wonderful mare, and whilst mood music from the yard hasn't been overly great (taken time to come to herself etc) I do expect her to be returning in top shape. She must still be showing sparkle at home, otherwise they would have retired her. I think a fast true run race is perfect for her and I think she will win.

I've done the forecast with Japan, and I've done Japan without Enable as my bets today. I think he is a very classy horse and he is the one horse in the race who I would class as potentially in a similar class as Enable. I think we have to give him the benefit of doubt from Royal Ascot given it was his first start of the season and he was slowly away. If he doesn't run very well today, it will be a massive disappointment.
 
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Morning all...Just the one bet for me today:

Sandown 3.00pm Via Serendipity 18/1 each way. Has run in this race last 2 years finishing 3rd and 6th off marks of 94 and 96. Today runs off a mark of 88. Uncertain whether he prefers running on the all weather now but they are giving this race a go again. Hollie Doyle takes the ride which is a good jockey booking and I think a big effort is on the cards.

Good luck all.:emoticon-0167-beer:
 
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