Never like opposing ROTO or RV but I am quite sweet on Simenon at 5/2 in that race and have nibbled at 42s for the Supreme in case he hacks up. Ran well off marks of 95 on the flat and after a slightly iffy debut, he slammed the field by 20 lengths LTO and can be smart as he gains in experience.
Hahah in my half asleep state I thought Neptune was 2m. Looks like that bet is out the window! Will be shocked if he's taken out of the 2m division as well and I've put another bet down on him for the Supreme. I really like him too and put him up the last day but I've heard some good reports about Simenon too so its a no bet day for me today. Good luck today with him!
Managed to get 3s for Simenon on Betfair. Always slightly concerning if a Mullins horse looks a fair price but I should think Mullins has a fair idea about whether Simenon has a chance having beaten Trifolium with So Young, and looking an unlucky loser with Allure of Illusion against Joxer recently. On a side note, Allure of Illusion ought to bolt up over 2 and a half miles today, stayed on very promisingly on reappearance.
In today's slog-athon, we find ourselves with two races to look at, the National and the Cross Country at Punchestown. The National is just too difficult, but the Cross Country might be a goer. As I've been on a bit of a run with these taxing events, I've decided to have a bash again. I've gone for the complete outsider here in the shape of De Danu. On paper he looks no hope, but there is a bit of sneaky form in there. Three runs back in a Cross Country, he was involved in that sensational race here the pack took the wrong course in the straight, leaving Garde Champetre and the placed horses a gift. All placed horses were not going to finish in the first half dozen until the mix up. Double Dizzy came out of this race to win at nice odds. It was one of the leaders. Another who was running a bold race, and looked as thought it was in with a chance of a place was De Danu. Since that run, he's had two runs over distances much too short. Today over 3 miles on a heavy track, he's a big show at about 50-1. Punchestown. 15:55. De Danu EW. 50-1.
De Danu would have finished in front of Garde Champetre that day had they all taken the right course so for Garde Champetre to be 11-4 and De Danu 125-1 I think it looks a little bit of sneaky EW value. Could be a very good spot Cyc and you dont need to have a lot on for a bit of fun! I like DRIVE ON JIM @ 10-1 in the National. Should run a good race and should see it out better than many!
Here's that De Danu race if anyone wants to have a look. On form it has him being beaten 122l by Garde Champetre, but if not for the mistake., he'd have beaten the winner home by 20l, irrespective of where he finished that day. http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,481963,00.html
When you watch that race again Cyc you really wouldnt be rushing to back Scotsirish at short odds today or even more so for the Festival Cross Country. Previous winner A NEW STORY and WEDGER PARDY would both appeal to me more at 20-1 each for March over Scotsirish and Garde Champetre.
What about the first though, bumpers with form have a crack at jumping, against a horse who's form while not exactly setting the world on fire, isn't all that bad. Caspian Piper at 150-1 on betfair.
I can see at least five or six in front of him cyc and for my money they are definitely playing for third behind Allure Of Illusion and King Vuvuzela. Agree with RV about his assesment of the Irish Novices too and have backed BOG WARRIOR A_P for the RSA.
Interesting to hear peoples thoughts on Irish Novice Chasers. Last Instalment looked good LTO. I think Sir Des Champs has shown some really nice progression over fences though and even forgetting his unbeaten record, I just think the way he battles and stays on to the line, he would go really well with course form at Cheltenham to boot. Everything screams 3m from the evidence I have seen but Mullins does seem to like the Jewson, which would be daft IMO. Further he goes the better he stays and I think his stamina would bring him right into play if he took the RSA route to the festival. He beat a nice sort last time out in spite of the trip and in spite of a slow pace- he looks genuine to me and I like him a lot
A few inches of snow in England today Cyc, that will scupper all Henderson's Festival plans...we all know it ONLY snows over Seven Barrows ;-)
I have had £2 EW on Royal Vic, because I want to see how bad the ground is for Big Zeb/Sizing Europe
