Daily Racing Thread Sunday 10th. September 2017

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At Chantilly, it is difficult to envisage anything but a home win in either the Prix Du Petit Couvert or the Prix Gladiateur (last year’s victor Vazirabad back for a repeat) but the raiders do have chances elsewhere.

In the two feature Group 1 races, the raiders hold a strong hand.

The Prix Du Moulin favourite Ribchester will be very hard to beat and his principle opponent looks to be last year’s Guineas runner-up Massaat, easy winner of the Hungerford on his only race this term, although Lightning Spear is an interesting supplementary entry. The other Hamdan runner Taareef has quit an impressive record but not at the top level, whilst Inns Of Court looks a little short of the required level as does Lady Frankel. The home team should be chasing the place money here.

Last year’s Prix Vermeille victor Left Hand is back, having not won since, but I do not believe any filly/mare has won consecutive runnings and last year’s runner-up Endless Time is also here to give the impression this is a Group 1 in name only again. It is not impossible that Ajman Princess has enough improvement to collect here at the expense of fellow raiders Blond Me and The Black Princess . Strathspey looks the most likely of the three year olds but I like Francis-Henri Graffard’s Group 2 winner BATEEL to step up a level here.

Neither of the other two Arc Trials looks particularly inspiring.

The Japanese raider Satono Diamond should win the Prix Foy if he is to be a serious contender in the big race in three weeks. Silverware is not really a Group 1 horse and Talismanic does not look the grade either so the main challenge may come from Prix Ganay winner Cloth Of Stars. Andre Fabre’s colt could be over-priced at 33/1 for the Arc, having not raced since May and possibly using this as a warm-up wherever he finishes.

I expect that Cracksman will be a very short price for the Prix Niel after his demolition job in the Great Voltigeur. The other Frankel colt Finche ought to be the biggest threat; however, it would be folly to write off Ice Breeze as John Gosden’s colt has not been beating much to win and there are no Group 1 winners in the quintet.

If I can get the France Galop Wi-Fi to work for me, I will try and post from Chantilly...
 
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Enjoy yourself at Chantilly, QMII, and good luck! More modest for me, off down south to Füssen to visit friends so have to put this little fancy up early:

17:20 York - Pennsylvania Dutch

(Only one on my tracker atm. 5f LTO too short so today's distance more suitable. Plus: Horse has talent, trainer Haggas has good overall record at the track, and breeding would suggest gelding will handle the ground conditions which may worsen late in the afternoon as more rain forecast then. Negative: Sometimes breaks slowly, so needs to get out reasonably well to have a chance. Hopefully, jockey Cosgrave will get the best out of him. 8/1 price (in three places) at time of writing seems like a reasonable bet to me; would be surprised if it is as much as this at the 'off'?).

God, what a lousy run, and bet too! <doh>
 
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Cracksman
Ribchester
Satono Diamond
Vazirabad
Equilateral
Caravaggio (although Aplphabet will probably win knowing them dodgy bastards)

£5 pays £273 with paddys
 
BALLYCASEY 2.45 Listowel is a wheelbarrow job today in my eyes, but I'm no expert and can't get much right. Just looking through his profile he seems to enjoy the soft/heavy ground which is forecast today winning most of his races on this type of ground. Not been hurdling for about 4 years but can't see that being a problem. I think the main challenger is THE GAME CHANGER but he has pulled up the last twice on this ground. BALLYCASEY for me @ 11/8.
 
Sorry but can not for the life of me see why Taareef is 14/1 in the 3 55 @ Chantilly, should be 3/1 at best, absolute gift
 
ELARQAM is an interesting newcomer in the 2yo Novice Stakes at York. Likely to start at very short odds, the colt cost 1.6million Guineas as a yearling and is out of Attraction. He holds entries in the Champagne Stakes, Royal Lodge, Dewhurst, Irish 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby.

ROSTROPOVICH could go well in the National Stakes at The Curragh. His stablemate NELSON bypassed this race in favour of yesterday's Champion Juvenile and won impressively. With Gustav Klimt out of the race he's now the stable first string.
 
Curragh
Patuano 20/1
Keeps running big races off this sort of mark. More than capable of hitting the frame off a low weight.

Seventh Heaven 5/1
I wouldn't be betting on her but at that sort of a price it's hard to resist an each way wager.

Caravaggio 6/4
The trip many not be a given but provided he runs to any of his previous form bar at Deauville he should win.

Verbal Dexterity 7/1
Again another that looks overpriced. Really impressive debut. Easy to forgive him his last run at six.
 
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WHITE VALIANT 11/2 Fontwell 4;35
I dont necessarily care where the races are when horses win bumpers under a penalty it tends to mean they are a little above average.
White Valiant went off at 80/1 at Huntingdon when winning on debut. They then took him to Cheltenham where he ran ok but was soundly beaten by Cap Soleil. He was then dropped back to ordinary class and duly won his second bumper under a penalty at today track before then failing by only 1.1/2L to give a Laura Mongan newcomer 17lbs because of his double penalty. Only one has come out of that race so far but it did frank the form.
This novice hurdle looks decidedly ordinary and back at a track where he has a record of 1,2, he definitely looks decent value to make a winning hurdling debut. John Berry is a very underrated trainer but certainly knows how to get one ready for a race such as this. I think he has placed this one perfectly.
 
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The Brogie Man should run well in 5.25, mate knows one of the owners.Just a case of beating the other 31 horses in the field so small ew wager at 10s.
 
Quite like the look of KENTFORD HEIRESS in the opener at Fontwell. Runs well at the track and won this race last year. Taken the 13/2 earlier.
 
Some cracking racing today

I wouldn't be backing Cracksman today, based on the owner's words:

"Cracksman’s programme for the remainder of this season will also be guided by the desire to have him performing at the highest level as a four-year-old.

“We want him to run as a four-year-old, so we wouldn’t want to give him an unduly hard race at the end of his three-year-old season,” Oppenheimer added.

“It’s very difficult to know what to do. Mr Gosden will consider his work in comparison to before the York run and we’ll see what he says. He’s come out of the race well, but that’s not to say he’s as well as he was going into the race.”

I doubt he'll be given a hard race, so he either wins easily or something else will be allowed to win
 
Great chance for Sea Of Grace to get a deserved Group 2 win, has her conditions and the step up in trip should suit, she was 4/1 a few days ago but 9/4 still looks fair enough, trip and ground are not ideal for Seventh Heaven and Rain Goddess doesnt look top class.

I took 10/1 Verbal Dexterity but I think it may have been too close to count as antepost so big rule 4 likely with the plodder a non runner.

Caravaggio and Satono Diamond both 6/4, two singles and a double :emoticon-0107-sweat
 
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