Want to start this by saying that I'll forever be grateful for the goal against Sheff Wed and the assist against Sheff Utd, both huge moments where Roberts delivered. However, I think in football you can't be blinded by a few moments when the rest of the time he's largely been poor. If this was a player we're being linked to i'm really not sure anyone would be excited.
He had 78 shots last season (2 penalties) but just 2 goals (1 penalty), that's a non penalty shot conversion rate of 1.31%. For someone who is among our highest shot takers that's not even close to being good enough.
Then you look at the xG stuff. 0.05 non penalty xG per shot. Why does he shoot so much from bad opportunities when he's clearly not good at it? That just wastes so many opportunities to sustain attacks and build for better opportunities. Attached a shot map below where you can clearly see what he does, cut in and shoot. But the problem is that he just isn't good at it. His only open play goal over the last 2 seasons came on the opposite side (Bristol City at home). So in the PL, where we will naturally have less opportunities to score, do you want him taking a large % of our shots?
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His chance creation is fine for the Championship, nothing great but it's solid. 0.09 xA per chance created which is fine. But if it's the main selling point then i'm not sure it's good enough.
When it comes to dribbling and ball carrying, he's wildly overrated. People talk about how he wins fouls but he won just 1.04 fouls per90, compared to Mundles 2.31. He's actually dispossessed more than he's fouled. Progressive carry distance is miles behind Mundle as well.
His work rate is pretty good but the actual defending leaves a lot to be desired. We've seen with Talbi what real high level defending from a winger looks like, with proper pressing angles and body positioning (I know it's pre season but from what I seen of Talbi at Brugge, I'm confident he'll carry it into the real games). Roberts was dribbled past 1.61 times per90, compared to Mundles 0.31.
I know i'm in the minority with Roberts because he's exciting on the ball, but I just can't ignore all the evidence that suggests he's not very good. I think we've upgraded massively with Talbi.