Stock taking

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humanbeingincroydon said:
One thing that I read recently is that, at this point in the season, our passing accuracy is 80% - while at this point last season it was 82%

Taking those stats at face value, it would seem to imply that our passing is actually worse than it was last season. However, as always happens when you focus solely on quantitative data, it misses the point entirely: last season our midfield was often guilty of being far too conservative with their passing, deciding to retain possession with a sideways pass rather looking to play the sort of passes that would lead to a chance being created - but this season there is more willingness to play the sort of passes that can create chances, best exemplified by Dembele going from a student of the Ray Wilkins/David Batty school of passing that he was under AVB to being far more dynamic with his passing.

If the trade off for more goals and a significantly improved goal difference is having a slightly lower passing accuracy, it's a no-brainer.
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It also ignores the fact that some of our passing has been intentionally aimed to the opposition.
We play defenders into poor positions in the corners, then close them down or force a bad pass and nick the ball in a promising area.
It's no coincidence that we've scored quite often from other teams ballsing it up at the back.
 
"Taking those stats at face value, it would seem to imply that our passing is actually worse than it was last season.
However, as always happens when you focus solely on quantitative data, it misses the point entirely ..."

Not really.
As I know from having done data analytics in my day job, you can measure virtually anything.
But if what you measure has no meaning or value *** (what is deemed non "actionable" info) ,
then gathering/analysing the data was pointless.


*** I anticipate possible "incomings" from any "Machine Learning" practitioners amongst us ... :)
 
The difficulty is that it now appears to be accepted that stats are useless. A further difficulty is that what you say about measuring stuff that has no meaning or value is also completely true. This does not mean however that they should be completely dismissed, just taken in context and with due consideration.
 
vimhawk said:
The difficulty is that it now appears to be accepted that stats are useless. A further difficulty is that what you say about measuring stuff that has no meaning or value is also completely true. This does not mean however that they should be completely dismissed, just taken in context and with due consideration.
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Indeed!
Passing stats are very hard to interpret. The closer you are to the opposition goal the more risk you should be taking to get that goalscoring pass away. A player who passes accurately in his own half but takes risks in the top third is going to get you a lot more points than one with identical stats who gives the ball away in his own half and always chooses the safe pass in the top third.
I always think its odd that fans (and pundits) seem to dislike players who try to pass into the opposition penalty box on the grounds that it has a low chance of working but are very happy with 'getting the ball wide' followed by a speculative cross into the area which almost always concedes possession.
 
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The biggest problematic stat is for assists. Getting an assist when we had Bale was easy. Roll it to him anywhere and he'd run towards goal and score. Ozil is getting a lot of press for assists (much of it deserved), but I saw one he got for a goal Walcott scored recently when I reckon he was passing to a guy on the wing, but misplaced it to Walcott (it was way over hit to be intended for Walcott) who then lashed it in from the edge of the box. Ozil deserved no credit for that.
 
"The difficulty is that it now appears to be accepted that stats are useless. A further difficulty is that what you say about
measuring stuff that has no meaning or value is also completely true. This does not mean however that they should be
completely dismissed, just taken in context and with due consideration."

That is just a case of the "minority ruining it for the majority" .
Or more specifically : idiots who should not be allowed to see stats they quote or (God forbid) produce themselves.

In this article I have limited the stats to those things that I know have a statistically high correlation with
the traits typical of a PL club that ends the season with a CL slot.
 
A stat of slight concern to me: we're only 2 points better off than we were after 22 games last season. I think we're all in agreement that the level of performance has on average been significantly higher, and that we've really 'deserved' victories instead of relying on luck and/or undeserved 90th minute winners, but still...
 
Citizen Kane said:
A stat of slight concern to me: we're only 2 points better off than we were after 22 games last season. I think we're all in agreement that the level of performance has on average been significantly higher, and that we've really 'deserved' victories instead of relying on luck and/or undeserved 90th minute winners, but still...
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Somebody else wrote a few days back if you combined the performances of this season with the ability to nick wins in the 90th minute of last season, we'd easily be in the top two positions this season.
 
"A stat of slight concern to me: we're only 2 points better off than we were after 22 games last season."

But two end of season KPIs (GD in the 30s, GA in the 30s) are currently looking very good indeed.
They are the things that fill me with far greater confidence in getting a CL slot in the points total.
 
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This is a game by game comparison of our match results to last season.

Man utd ... same points as last season
Stoke .... plus 1 point on last season
Leicester ... minus 2 points on last season
Everton ... minus 2 points on last season
Sunderland ... plus 2 points on last season
palace...plus 2 points on last season
man city ... plus 3 points on last season
swansea ... minus 2 points on last season
Liverpool. ..plus 1 point on last season
Bournemouth (swapped with qpr) ... equal to last season
Villa... plus 3 points on last season
Arsenal. ..equal to last season
west ham...plus 2 points on last season
Chelsea ... minus 2 points on last season
West brom ... minus 2 points on last season
Newcastle ... equal to last season
Southampton. ..plus 2 points on last season
Norwich...equal to last season (swapped with burnley)
Watford...equal to last season (swapped with hull)
Everton ...minus 2 points on last season
Leicester. ..minus 3 points on last season
Sunderland. ...equal to last season

That makes us plus 1 point game by game, team by team on last season...pretty much evened itself out now.
 
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remembercolinlee said:
This is a game by game comparison of our match results to last season.

Man utd ... same points as last season
Stoke .... plus 1 point on last season
Leicester ... minus 2 points on last season
Everton ... minus 2 points on last season
Sunderland ... plus 2 points on last season
palace...plus 2 points on last season
man city ... plus 3 points on last season
swansea ... minus 2 points on last season
Liverpool. ..plus 1 point on last season
Bournemouth (swapped with qpr) ... equal to last season
Villa... plus 3 points on last season
Arsenal. ..equal to last season
west ham...plus 2 points on last season
Chelsea ... minus 2 points on last season
West brom ... minus 2 points on last season
Newcastle ... equal to last season
Southampton. ..plus 2 points on last season
Norwich...equal to last season (swapped with burnley)
Watford...equal to last season (swapped with hull)
Everton ...minus 2 points on last season
Leicester. ..minus 3 points on last season
Sunderland. ...equal to last season

That makes us plus 1 point game by game, team by team on last season...pretty much evened itself out now.
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That's actually quite encouraging. The top teams will all be down on last year I'd have thought (especially Chelsea <laugh>)
 
The 3 cup games in Feb, together with the PL game, will determine whether Pochettino
ditches the Europa League.

To continue to the final of all cup competitions means that from March onwards there be a
2 games per week schedule. With even worse scheduling if we draw any FA Cup ties.

I feel that the Europa can be taken on a per round basis.
If any key player injuries occur before or because of those games, then with a fight for the
PL now on (and the likelihood of a CL slot by default even if we fail on this) , then he should
weaken the starting XIs for those games at the appropriate moment.
 
The RDBD said:
So two-thirds of the PL season gone, and these are the salient facts :

1. Averaging GD of 1 per game
2. GA of less than one per game.
3. Lost 3 games.
4. Current best GD.
5. Current best GA.
6. 2 points from top.

7. No team has lost less.
8. Only two teams have won one game more.
9. Only two games have scored one goal more.

10. Effectively 2 pts taken per game.
11. Effectively 2 goals scored per game.
12. Unbeaten away in 12 games
13. Best form in last 5/10 games (W/D/L = 5/0/0 and 8/1/1 respectively) .

14. In the KO stages of the Europa League as group winners.
15. In round 5 of the FA Cup.


Are we happy with that ??
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It would be a strange Spurs fan who wasn't, all very encouraging. Although I don't understand No9 - should it be teams?
 
"It would be a strange Spurs fan who wasn't, all very encouraging."

Spurs are on target to achieve several of the "KPI" statistically associated
with the season-long performance of teams that get the coveted CL slots
courtesy of their PL placing.

Up to this season, Spurs at best have achieved 1-2 of those KPI over the past
decade (and not the ones that have the strongest correlation with a CL slot) .
 
The only stat i know is that if we win the league it will be very encouraging and the bar on the mine where i work will have a 400 per cent increase in alcohol sales for about a week.
 
I really hate to say it because I think we are more than capable of winning a cup this year, and I want the glory BUT the Europa will give us little that we don't already have this season except that cup glory and I think we should go all out for the bigger prize.
 
So much for stats (home/away/total) Possession.

Leicester are 3rd from bottom.

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Leicester City 42,0 % 41,4 % 41,7 %
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Tottenham Hotspur 57,8 % 54,6 % 56,2 %
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Arsenal FC 60,1 % 55,8 % 58,0 %
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Manchester City 58,0 % 56,4 % 57,2 %
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Manchester United 60,3 % 54,6 % 57,5 %
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Southampton FC 54,4 % 48,7 % 51,5 %
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West Ham United 48,3 % 43,9 % 46,1 %
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Liverpool FC 58,8 % 54,4 % 56,6 %
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Watford FC 49,0 % 42,3 % 45,7 %
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Stoke City 51,2 % 47,9 % 49,5 %
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Everton FC 56,4 % 46,7 % 51,5 %
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Chelsea FC 56,9 % 51,9 % 54,4 %
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Crystal Palace 49,6 % 43,3 % 46,4 %
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West Bromwich Albion 43,5 % 36,2 % 39,9 %
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AFC Bournemouth 52,9 % 51,8 % 52,3 %
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Swansea City 53,8 % 51,3 % 52,6 %
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Norwich City 47,5 % 42,5 % 45,0 %
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Newcastle United 48,8 % 43,8 % 46,3 %
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Sunderland AFC 43,0 % 39,4 % 41,2 %
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Aston Villa 52,8 % 47,3 % 50,1 %
 
"So much for stats (home/away/total) Possession ..."

Worthless stat.

The data generation should IMHO really be (for team X and Y in a game, and
"Possession" = possession of the ball in the opponent half) :

( % possession team X, % possession team Y, home = X/Y, winner = X/Y/none)

which would allow for more significant correlation between possession and result
to be attempted.
 
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