The stats aren't a pretty sight. But, if we accept that staying up is our target, and 40 points are required, then one formula is....
Ignore results against the top 6, win remaining home games, (13) and grab an away draw.
So, on that basis , where are we. We are 2 points behind that schedule. Effectively, from the home draw against the fossil fuel team from the NE. ( Coal to oil )
Assuming we beat Norwich ( I know I know) , then a win at Turf Moor puts us ahead of the schedule
This is because the away wins at Naaarwich & Neverton & the win against Manure ( top 6 , laughably ) compensate for 3 home losses. (Wolves Soton west spam)
Of course it's never that simple ( look at my predictions league position!) but it seems we have invested well - on the basis of 1 match admittedly. If WT-E returns with more confidence (or is AFCON a lower standard than EPL ?) and Sarr gets fit, we have a decent enough squad. Burnley & Naarwich haven't invested , the fossils investments seem comical so far.
On the other hand , the stat bible 'The Numbers Game' suggests that 1 goal a game keeps you up. On that basis, we'd have 8 points !