Spring Double Scandalous Odds

It used to be that some people liked the challenge of the Spring Double in the Lincoln Handicap and Grand National. It was the dream of pulling off a big priced double, which was highly unlikely but not impossible.

Looking at the current betting for the two races this year it seems astonishing that the favourite for each race is only 4/1. Two cavalry charge handicaps, one over thirty fences and 4/1 is the best price on each? God almighty.

It's true that the Aintree fences are not what they were but it's still a huge field and while the Lincoln has become grossly compressed, with sometimes 7 to 10 lbs covering the field compared to a couple of stone in the last generation, there is still a fairly competitive field there with perhaps the draw to come into play.

I am on Lake View Lad at double carpet in the National and Battered at the same odds in the Lincoln but I played singles only. Surely these are not races to be putting much money on and at 4/1 it's hardly worth bothering for a couple of quid?

How many people out there will end up putting a pound each-way on Tiger Roll and if he finishes 2nd at 4/1 are going to be faced with getting the same two quid back that they staked? I had it before in Grand Nationals as a Betting Shop Manager with horses better priced than Tiger Roll is and had disbelieving once a year punters questioning why their returns were so modest on placed horses. There seemed a common misconception that you got half the odds to the FULL stake for a place and people were expecting a tenner for a quid each-way place at 8/1, when the reality was that it was three quid you got back, effectively 1/2 your money.

At 4/1 odds each-way it's evens for the place part and a money back job, it's the same return as a non-runner. It's a bit sad to see these historic Handicaps in such a pitiful state from a betting opportunity perspective.

 

And with the Grand National reduced to a long distance chase, as opposed to the spectacle it used to be, far more horses are in with a chance. In the 50s and 60s it was relatively easy to pick the winner, or at least a place. Now - no idea

Edit. The Lincoln - apart from a couple of years I've never had a clue

 

I thought for a moment this post was about owner Darren Yates. He of course owns South Seas whom is in the Lincoln on Saturday and Blaklion who is in the big one up at Aintree. Massive fancy for me the latter and South Seas must have an each way chance. What price that double coming off I wonder? I wouldn't mind betting owner will have a few quid on both and the double.

South Seas has some good form as a 2 year old and the change of yard might benefit. Some of his runs last season are better than bare form figures suggest.

 

It's true that the odds on the favourites are truly shocking. It's always a bit of fun for me and I tend to look for some nice prices to land the place double.
This year I have done Ventura Knight 50/1 and Rock The Kasbah 25/1. I don't often have strong fancies for the National. I was big on West Tip when he lost and big on ONE FOR Arthur when he won. This time round I am pretty big on Rock The Kasbah.

 

I had an ante-post bet on South Seas for the 2000 Guineas but the dream more or less died when he was only 6th of 7 behind Churchill in the Dewhurst. He was 2nd next time on soft but beaten a long way by Thunder Snow. It never panned out for him at three with just two disappointing runs and then being gelded before a year off the track.

I gave up on South Seas a long while ago and although the stable is in form, he is only two pounds lower than his last run, a mid-division effort at Ascot where the soft ground should have suited. His last win was thirty months ago and at 14/1 for a race of this nature he looks short enough. I thought his best run last year was at Chester on his second start, when he missed the break and didn't get much luck in running, doing quite well to be forth. His other good run was at Goodwood when second and I wonder if those quick tracks might suit him best.

He's interesting but I just feel he should be 20/1 at least given his long absence from the winner's enclosure. Good luck.

 

Here’s a stat (courtesy of ‘The Weeekender’). Since 2008 Mark Johnston has had 78 runners in handicaps at Doncaster. Just one has been victorious.

 

Great

 

I see the old boy though has 7 entered in Donny handicaps this weekend so is obviously keen to 'remedy the malady' re him and handicaps at the venue. Should things go his way that stat could look very different come Sunday evening...

 

Stick, do you think this outfit ScrewFix might be an apt sponsor for some bookmakers?

 

I scarcely bother with the Grand National or the Lincoln these days and I never bothered with the Spring Double.

It is no surprise that the Appleby horse is such a short price for the Lincoln as he took his other entry (that would have carried 9st 8lb) out at the last forfeit stage leaving just the one that the pundits will be using the same tired old phrases about like “could be a Group horse in a handicap”.

The ridiculous odds about the National favourite are equally no surprise but it is a mug’s betting race these days. We know that on the day of the race there will be a couple of well-publicised gambles on a couple of outsiders and the bookies will shorten up the first three or four in the betting to reduce their liabilities.

The fact that some bookmakers are offering 1/5 the odds and more than four places just illustrates that the once-a-year shop window for new punters has just been liberalised more by competition amongst the online bookies. When I worked in the bookmaking industry, I worked with an old boy who said that the Grand National was a race where the bookmakers paid out on four winners because most of the once-a-year punters backed each way and the odds being offered meant nothing to them so it was not a real book.

Simple solution: leave both races well alone.

 

Anyone got any views on the Barron’s horses first time out? His one looks very interesting to me

 

Ran a decent race last time in the ‘Immoral Handicap’ and has to be hugely respected on that formline alone.

Persoanlly, I’ve got an each-way fancy for Great Prospector at 40/1. Hasn’t won since his 2YO debut but has put up, at times, some very good displays since then. Has also, eye-catchingly, slipped down from a peak rating of 106 to 97. The yard also know how to win this race having won 2 out of the last 7 renewals.

 

Anyone in there right mind has a flutter on the national!. It's when the nation gets involved in a horse race. I love the grand national although it's not quite the spectacle it was sadly...still enjoy the excitement of the day though. It is easily the most involved I get in any horse race in the year. It's a bit like the fa cup day of old..all the build up and the whole day focused on this special race..

 

You never worked in the betting industry...

The once-a-year numpties who have forgotten how to write a bet since last year, expect to get paid out thirty seconds after the winner has crossed the line because the office only opens one day a year; and have no idea what their returns are supposed to be so they just give you all twenty tickets that they put on for the whole family as one of them has aunt Maud’s 10p each way on the fourth.

If I want to throw money away on a 40 runner handicap, there are plenty on the flat – mostly sponsored by bookies these days – and when it comes to betting I am only interested when I have got a reasonable chance of turning a profit rather than lining the bookies’ satchels.

 

Yes never worked in the betting shop or industry but been in plenty of betting shops at grand national time. In fact I would have put on the family bets like 1 quid each way in the old days..of course nowadays easier to get online to do it. But hey what's wrong with that? It's about everyone getting involved in something that the nation finds an event and spectacle.

I remember a lot of the betting shop regulars used to bemoan the stampede of punters but they were genuinely moany boring bastards. It's once a year for God's sake! Nothing wrong at all with getting involved. You are more likely to lose on the race but it's the fun of being involved.

 

You are comparing chalk and cheese. I worked in the betting industry thirty years ago when there were no computerised betting consoles, no competition from the internet and you settled all the bets by hand.

We had a couple of staff out trying to encourage people to write one horse to one slip. What we then did was put all the slips into four wooden racks of 10 pigeon holes. As the race was run we would remove the tickets for each faller, unseated, pulled up, etc. so that at the end of the race there would just be four boxes to go through and settle.

They did not do those special Grand National slips back in those days because getting them printed and distributing them the night before the race would not have been logistically easy. Now with the computer technology, they can print the slips in the offices, plus I think the National runners are declared on Thursday now giving more time.