So, from speculation about whether our last match against Plymouth would be a play off decider, (a situation I personally never believed would happen) we now might have that game as a relegation decider. Come on guys, there must be 3 more points out there somewhere
Correct itstimupnorth Technically we need at least another win, maybe more to avoid getting dragged back in to the relegation dog-fight. Basic rule of thumb i use is L1 roughly requires 51-53 points to avoid the drop but the 49 we are on at the moment could be enough. If you had 49 points in 2014 or 2016 you would have stayed up, however, if you had 49 points in 2015 or 2017 you would have been relegated. I've checked the league position stats of 21st and 22nd and nothing unusual is going on, meaning the points tally for the teams in them respective positions are where they would be expected to be at this stage (2nd April) from a data perspective. So in short, one more win in seven games and we can start planning for next season in L1.
Having been AWOL for a couple of weeks, I hadn't realised just how bad things had become. Bring back Parker asap.
It's raining today, and although I probably have got more constructive things to do I have had a look at the the points achieved by the 4th from bottom side in tiers 2, 3 and 4 - all 46 game seasons - for the past 20 years, and made a note of teams achieving at least 51pts. Some years get a bit difficult to judge as teams were deducted points, and of course in many seasons the position was determined by goal difference, but it shows that we shouldn't start thinking we're safe yet. 1998/9 Hull 53pts (T4) 2000/01 Bristol Rovers 51pts (T3) 2003/4 Gillingham 51pts (T2) - the year we stayed up by 1 goal 2004/5 Torquay 51pts (T3) - MK Dons finished on 51pts 5th from bottom and would have been relegated, but Wrexham were deducted 10 points and finished on 43pts 2005/6 Notts County 52pts (T4) 2007/8 Coventry 53pts (T2) 2008/9 Plymouth 51pts (T2) 2009/10 Scunthorpe 52pts (T2) - actually finished 5th from bottom but only because Palace were deducted 10 points and finished below them 2012/13 Barnsley 55pts (T2) - Peterborough were relegated finishing 3rd from bottom on 54 Plymouth 52pts (T4) 2013/14 Northampton 53pts (T4) 2016/17 Notts Forest 51pts (T2) It's all a bit like warnings on investments, that past results are not a guarantee of future performance, and looking through those tables there have been teams who've finished 4th from bottom with points in the low-mid 40's range, in which case we'd be safe already. At the end of the season we may find out that we already had enough points now, but I wouldn't like to bank on that. I've always thought that 53 points is a safer target than 50, and on the basis of this highly unscientific survey I'd stay with that judgement. It still wouldn't be a cast iron guarantee mind you.
