I think the top teams like McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus know that RBR are looking at a quiet year and all 4 know that they have to push like crazy to win this chance. RBR are still unlocking the potential out of the RB8 that will allow Seb and Mark to ramp up the points when it's closer to completion. If Mark was not in that other Red Bull equaling the results of Seb and instead stuck someone like Massa in it would Seb be regarded in the same boat as Alonso? Both having dogs! You only have to look at Sebs face in some of the interviews, he's either not sounding happy, looking stressed, complete opposite to last year. After Monaco it looked like he didn't care about getting 4th even after a good race. It looks like he already knows he won't be able to defend the WDC as the RB8 is far from complete and development is very slow. Maybe they think it's only a matter of time until both him and Mark fall behind the Mercedes, Lotus and McLaren as well in the WDC standings and really they have been lucky that others around them have ****ed up a lot. That or Seb knows something about we don't and that a RB8/B will be unveiled in Canada or Silverstone.
It's hard to see passed Alonso ATM, but the reality is whichever team manages to get on top of the tyres first has the best chance.
If things stay as they are now, with teams struggling to understand exactly what's going on with their tyres, then Hamilton and Alonso seem to be the men most likely to get the most points this season. So out of the 2, I'd rather Hamilton won, so I voted for him
Barrichello says that "in the end it will result in a duel between Alonso and Vettel" which I agree with, but I'm surprised that at this stage he seems to have discounted the man currently driving the fastest car: Hamilton. So...does anyone agree with Barrichello or is Hamilton a serious contender? Things are currently: please log in to view this image
The Lotus seemed to have a lot in hand over Hamilton in Hungary, only the track and clever use of KERS and car positioning kept Raikkonen behind. That said McLaren were a lot better than they had been and were at least second fastest (although we never really got to see the Red Bulls stretch their legs). The thing about this season is that teams seem to take it in turns to be fast so I fully expect Spa to show us a super fast Ferrari and then a few weeks later it will be Red Bulls turn again, and then back to McLaren. Unless Alonso mucks up (unlikely) then no ones a threat to him, not Hamilton or the Red Bulls. A reasonable outside bet is Raikkonen who's Lotus has been consistently fast suggesting they have something special which could seem them become dominant in the second half of the season. But in all likelihood if Alonso doesn't win it this season then he must have had a few retirements in the second half.
Well I've done some pathetic calculations to find out a likely solution on what will happen for the end of the season. I took all 5 drivers and looked at their past performances at the GP's and rated them from 1st, 2nd, 3rd ,4th, 5th and involving likely drivers to influence the results like Jenson and Romain. I looked at Alonso's past races at Spa and they are not fanatastic when compared against Kimi, Lewis and Seb in particular even Webber I believe has a slight edge over Alonso at Spa so I put him down as 5th "likely". But then he would have to worry about Jenson and Romain being in front of him so he might end up 6th-7th with against slightly faster cars and maybe drivers more suited to this track as Alonso does look weak around here. Apart from Spa-Francorchamps Alonso looks a bit weak around Brazil as well but ahead of Lewis who is the weakest around there. For Alonso those are the only 2 GP's I can see Alonso has any problem with, the rest he is either the best (Italy, Singapore) or second best to Seb (Suzuka, India) the rest about middle (Korea, Abu Dhabi). Webber and Kimi should in theory fall away now while Lewis in the past is an unknown, he will do well or will slowly fall away until Korea and Abu Dhabi. Seb in theory should rack up alot of points after Spa-Francorchamps, exluding Brazil which he is "good" at. Seb should be on the podium at 7 of these GP's and with at least 2 more wins as the past always shows Seb is very strong at this period even more than Alonso. Seb is also likely going to be the victor at the US grand prix, Seb has always been at the sharp end at the new GP's that are introduced to the season, Lewis should be the next biggest threat followed by Alonso. For Alonso to win the WDC: Must get a good result at Spa and Brazil, stay in front of Vettel from (Italy to Abu Dhabi) as he is very strong around that period. For Seb to win the WDC: Must win Italy and Singapore if Alonso is the biggest threat, beat Lewis to the win at Abu Dhabi, beat Webber to the win at Brazil, win the US GP. For Lewis to win the WDC: Needs good results at Italy, Brazil and Japan to stay in touch of Alonso and Seb, win Abu Dhabi and USA and maybe take the lead before Brazil. For Webber to win the WDC: He must out do Seb for the rest of the season and win Brazil, get on the podium at Monza and Suzuka where he usually sucks at. For Kimi to win the WDC: Needs to get on the podium at Singapore, Korea, India and Abu Dhabi, get to grips with the new circuits quickly, win the US GP, beat Webber at Brazil, Seb at Japan and Alonso at Italy. After writing all this crap down this is what the result might be at the end of the season if past performances repeat again. WDC standings after Brazil: 1st: Vettel with 305 points 2nd: Alonso with 292 points 3rd: Lewis with 266 points 4th: Webber with 239 points 5th: Kimi with 230 points
I think if Kimi eats 2-3 ice creams in the next hour then his chances of winning will slowly decrease... FACT
He's fine at Spa, just a bit unlucky. In 2004 he was leading before an oil leak ended his race. In 2007 he easily outqualified and outraced Hamilton (and for what it's worth, he outdrove Hamilton again in 2011 despite having an inferior car). He's never really had a car quick enough to win there, although he has a win from F3000. He's no match for Raikkonen I'll admit, and I'm not sure about Vettel, but the others...he owned Hamilton in the same car, Button and Webber haven't done **** at Spa, Grosjean LOL. If he has a competitive car and Kimi doesn't (and he shouldn't if temperatures are lower) then I think he can win.
Spa was the last time Alonso was out-qualified by Massa, although not in 100% perfect conditions, and I would feel this is his worst track of the season. So if he can get a podium, or as close as possible, he should be good for the championship.
I've also looked across the board and you,could say the same thing about Lewis who really should have won on this track twice already if you include 08. 2011 we can't judge properly as Lewis suffered a "collision" with Maldonado that damaged his car so maybe (ifs and buts) he would of got pole and the win if that didn't happen. Buttons weaker than Alonso around here but considering McLaren are usually quick around circuits like this Jenson should have the upper hand going into this race, with a possible DDRS to back him up. Grojsean last time I checked has been on the podium quite a lot around Spa in the lower series, though you,could say the same thing about Seb and Nurburgring as in the lower series he used to be untouchable and now in F1 he doesn't look as settled. Webber, since he has driven dogs most of his career until Red Bull he is about equal to Alonso around here since he has been on the podium 2 years running with a car capable enough to do so. Seb should of been on the podium in 2010 if he wasn't so hot headed against Jenson that day. So putting him behind Lewis in my opinion is a bit hard when Seb should of been on the podium 3 years running, but Lewis could of won here 3 times already in my opinion (08, 10, 11). To be honest Alonso fans should take that as a compliment, apart from this track there's nothing until Brazil that could really hurt him after Spa. But it doesn't mean it will happen though!
Perhaps Barrichello does not agree with your absolute and categoric statement (as if it were somehow a 'FACT'), that the car Jenson Button is driving is "the fastest car"?
In answer to the original question: "Who will win in 2012?"; I find it difficult to look past Alonso as currently the most likely. For the most part, his points tally suggest he is getting a lot out of his car (despite woeful performances from messy Massa, which appear to remove what might normally be a benchmark measure); and Ferrari seem to be continuing to maintain the all-important development momentum. Furthermore, with relative stability in regulations for some time, it would seem less likely for teams to perform a mid-season turn-around, in order to close the gap. However, in such a hotly contested battle between leading teams, my 'Alonso nomination' is really only applicable as things stand at present. What should really be beyond doubt is that if anyone is to catch Alonso, whoever it is needs to start banging in a string of victories, whilst hoping for the Alonso/Ferrari package to become less consistent!
As someone who really doesn't care, I think its hard to see past Alonso. He is simply driving better than anyone else and so long as Ferrari can maintain their current competitive position in the order i don't see him blowing his lead.
I think it'll all be down to car development it's upto Ferrari's to lose it for Alonso IMO, although that said he has choked in 07 & 10.
