Off Topic So, what now?

i know previous threads on Brexit have descended into leavers and remainers attacking each other, so if that happens again I’m happy for it to be closed because it is NOT my intention for this thread.

I was just curious to see what you guys think MIGHT happen next. Forget all the different things we all WANT, what do you think will happen next?
A HARD Brexit? An General Election? A Corbyn government? A new Tory leader without a General Election? A ‘Peoples vote’(second referendum)? Back to re-negotiate another ‘soft’ deal?
Whatever happens I can’t seeing us leaving on 29th March.
Thoughts? (And play nice........!)

 

Any of the above, who knows . I believe EU have deliberately given a bad deal in an attempt to frighten us into not leaving. To stand any chance of getting a decent deal we need to call their bluff, but I can’t see us doing it.

 

The piece of legislation that means the UK leaves the EU at 11.30pm on 29 March 2019 has already been passed. It is highly unlikely that there is a parliamentary majority for changing that legislation so the most likely outcome is - leave with "no deal". Post no deal the UK would negotiate its future economic relationship with the EU.

I could be entirely wrong but the above is logical and backed by legislation.

 

I pretty sure I heard that they can ask for an extension to the March 29th deadline.

If it went to a second referendum, and the remainers win then the leavers would ask for a third.

It’s all a farce and should never have been one party leading the deal. There should of been a elected party member from each to sit in and do what’s best for the country.

Plus IMO David Cameron should of never been able to step down. He called this referendum, he should of been told you called it, you fix it.

I don’t want an general election, because this for the first time I’ve no confidence in any party.

 

The one thing Parliament is agreed on is not to leave with no deal, they will do what ever is necessary to prevent that happening. You are right though if nothing is done we leave at the end of March, with or without a deal.

 

We can ask for an extension but the rest of the EU have to agree, at the moment they’ve made it clear there are only a couple of reasons they will agree to it, either to allow time for a general election, or a second referendum.

 

As someone who looks on from the sidelines over in Canada I am absolutely shocked at how the U.K. has handled this entire debacle. The decision to leave was not made on political party grounds but rather based on personal concerns about the future of the country and I believe the fear mongering created by both sides leading up to the vote were criminal to say the least which must have left people wondering what was going to happen next. Once the decision was made I would have thought that rather than going for each other's throats the politicians should have spent their time more wisely trying to reach some consensus as to what would better suit the entire population rather than their own over inflated egos.

Regrettably it has now turned in to an even more ridiculous scenario where May and Corbyn seem destined to duke it out in public making themselves even more like clowns reducing the public to sit and watch from the sidelines of a political debate that should have been sorted way before now and perhaps even before the Brexit votes were even cast. How on earth can you vote on something that to me never was clear prior to the vote, other than stay in or leave? The remaining members of the E.U. are now treating the U.K. like the idiots they appear to the rest of the world and regrettably what happens from here on out will bear very little resemblance to the original ideas from both sides of this divisive debate.

In reality I think a lot of other countries are using the U.K. as their guinea pig regarding leaving the E.U. because many other countries are dissatisfied with the rules and regulations of an overpowering political and financial system leaving them to question it's worth and future. Perhaps if the U.K. had tried harder to use a more equitable and sensible approach to their problems with the E.U. things may not have been as bad as they currently appear. Would a general election solve the issues because it will only turn in to another political bashing from both main political parties and the blame game will continue ad nauseum.

A very sad state of affairs created by self serving interest groups and politicians who should lose their jobs for total incompetence and the common people seem to have lost their rights on many fronts. Good luck.

 

It took you guys 7 years to agree a deal with the EU and unlike us you were not trying to persuade them to untangle 40 years of integration.

 

I understand the 40 years of integration but surely somewhere in those years someone must have asked why are we agreeing to this? By the way as you say Canada is no expert in trade agreements and our having to deal with Trump is no picnic and so I feel for the position that my birth country faces. The basic question from here is what will happen and what is the best scenario for all concerned.

 

In those 40 years we could of thought what we liked , this is the first time since the 70’s we’ve had a say on whether we want to stay in.

In my view the EU don’t want us to leave , and also don’t want any of the other countries to see us get a reasonable deal as they may look to leave also.

As I previously stated leaving without a deal wouldn’t wouldn’t be good for the EU either, they have been better at telling us what is acceptable to them .

Yesterday parliament voted on what is acceptable to the EU . It was obvious it wasn’t going to pass, we need to find something acceptable to parliament and then take it to the EU.

Ultimately if both sides can’t agree we should leave without a deal.

 

In answer to what I think will happen - there will be a bit of brinkmanship - but ultimately we will ask to extend the Article 51 deadline

What I want ............... well now we know what leaving actually means, another referendum - to decide once and for all what we are going to do one way or the other.

 

My feelings on this are well known, but once Leave had won, the government should have worked with all parties to negotiate a solution, rather than the high-and-mighty Tories going alone - which was never going to work.
Once May had weakened her hand by making herself dependant in the DUP it was always going to be stalemate. It has pitched 2 types of democracy against each other (referendum vs elected politicians).
I can’t see ANYTHING being passed by Parliament, unless Corbyn is brought into the negotiations.
If nothing gets through parliament then a People’s Vote seems the only way to start moving again - there is nowhere else left for the government or parliament to go, as both May’s deal and no deal have been rejected. Of course, this would further polarise the public with Brexit supporters in particular feeling that they have been betrayed.
I have never felt so exasperated and ashamed of our politicians as I do now. There isnt a leader among them. It’s shameful.

 

The thread is what we think will happen, not what we want,

What on earth would we achieve having another referendum, you can’t keep having referendum , if we are to have another one though , as we’ve already decided to leave , the only one you could legitimately have would be how we leave.

 

Unfortunately the U.K. isn't alone when it comes down to politicians thinking they are the populace's superheroes.

 

I actually believe now more than ever that a second referendum is likely. Remain may not even appear on the ballot paper - it might be May’s deal or No deal, but if the politicians can’t agree then there is nothing else left.

 

I can’t see that happening, the reason being most of the people pushing for another referendum are ones that want to stop Brexit.

I believe Teresa May is trying to get a majority around removing, or somehow changing the terms of the backstop, she can then go to the EU in a very strong position.

After all each side has said they won’t create a hard irish border , and if we leave without a deal both sides will have to deal with the issue anyway.

Surely therefore why let it the inclusion of the backstop prevent a deal, when a no deal would leave the same issue to be resolved.

 

In an effort to "look good" CORBIN, came up with a comment that said "they were not consulted" not sure on the sequences but did hear Teresa MAYS final speech prior to the vote … and it totally destroyed any shred of credibility Corbin had, [ ? has he actually had any? ].
He is like a tunnel visioned egoist... right from the start, well after about a year of actually doing nothing to aid Brexit, but stand up most Weds and tell TM to stand down and let labour take over he then "has done everything to obstruct" the vote, and not contributed anything … When asked "JEREMENY how are you going to vote for the deal his reply was I am going to vote for a general election, I want to be in power, sod the country I don't have a clue, but would just like to be prime minister …. "

We should go out, we should negotiate a deal when out, bear in mind we buy a lot more from EUROPE THAN THEY DO FROM US and it is a lot cheaper elsewhere!
eg Banana producers have to pay 5 euro cents to workers to straighten the bananas …...lol
Heaven forbid there is a GE I would hope that all those shadow ministers don't get re elected .. watched one pouty lipped shadow M talk quite plainly about things, but then visibly excited when asked to comment on a GE … it was like a 3 year old anticipating getting a first icecream on the beach whilst on holiday .. voice trembled and ….

OOOOPS SHOULD HAVE PRESSED REPLYLAST NIGHT …………...

 

There are a couple countries who would wish to leave,, it would have been easy for them as the EU would not have to pay half their budget to support them! it would then have been a precedent we had to follow not a furrow to be ploughed . The EU is losing a positive contributor in the UK, WE GET BACK LESS BY A LARGE DEGREE OF WHAT WE PUT IN
This means that the outgoings to prop up the likes of Italy, Greece, Spain etc will be shared by the likes of the top remaining top 10 countries … and bearing in mind that they also get less back than going in their gov's are going to need to raise more/ pay more!
Should we just pay out to those that get the funding from EU now from our coffers, we / the gov: would be in profit! and able to fund something/someone else like NHS OR...…….

JUST completed 3 hours on the box! PMQ's + 2 hours .
Listened to the parrot disrespectful Corbollocks [ after lying about what he said under his breath re TM, HE WAS THE ONLY LEADER OF ANY PARTY OR GROUP THAT DID NOT CONCUR WITH THE CONDOLENCES FOR THE DEAD BRIT AND OTHER VICTIMS IN NAIROBI, instead went straight in on his aim to get a GE at any cost ]…. and O M G WHAT a terrible threat we are under should he EVER get in power, I don't know how many GE's I have survived but 2 stand out and both Labour.
A victim of MAGGIES reign, although I had no problems with it, I WAS ONE OF 3.25m UNEMPLOYED OUT OF A 50M POPULATION and at the time agreed with it as it got us out of the s**** dumped on us by a labour Gov. I voted labour some GE's later, sucked in buy the smooth talking stutter of BLIAR, as I thought it was a time for change, and he promised more than was on offer ….. = D I S A S T E R, …….. £ trillions, a lot of trillions, of oil revenue evaporated, gold, where is it? and a note [ mentioned today by the one that left it to the incoming chancellor ..sorry no money left!], he dumped on Brown, who then left us in the deep deep deep ****e of £trillions of debt …..
Has he respect for people of the uk? no and wont list the 20 or more things he has distastefully been linked with , let alone the fibs he spins to seem like he is a friend of all ………..
todays debate .. well we will just need to wait and see …………. a GE, one part of me says NO, a smaller part says yes ..but hope there is a confirmed majority for Conservatives. The risk they all [MPs] take IS THEY GET THEIR SEAT a few first time labour MPs did so with rather tight against the odds votes …. SNP make me ashamed to be part 50% Scots, the only interest in Brexit is it is ann argument to get independence ….. hang on, they voted to stay part of the UK …….
What happens next FN

 

I too have watched today and yesterday , disagree with your points completely, but the thread was specifically about what we think will happen next , not about what’s gone on in the past .

I don’t know what you think on the point of the thread John . Do you have a view ? what do you think is going to happen next ?

 

I'm fully aware that myself and JGF got quite heated last time around with this discussion, so I'm going to try and make a conscious effort to not be rude here even if things do get controversial. A healthy debate is the best way and we have some decent chats on here, I've no intention of derailing it again .

So the question being, what do we think will happen? Well, a deal is not going to happen before the current Brexit deadline, as we all know that there is zero chance of getting it through Parliament. I'm also not convinced that a deal that appeases the majority of the population/Parliament actually exists. Given that fact, I think whatever May's Plan B is will also fail, which makes her consistent delay tactics all the worse.

An election is another possibility, but it seems that we won't get a majority there either. The Tories failed to get one last time around and according to all polls, Labour have made increases since then, so that will be full of complications. The only way this changes is if Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems all unanimously agree some sort of Brexit strategy, which again won't happen. So once again, we may well have the Brexit deadline extended to allow for the GE but it will all end in the same result.

So that leaves us with either a hard Brexit or withdrawing A50. Personally, I think the latter is more likely. Purely for the fact that a) a hard Brexit is literally impossible to implement at this time, not only due to Calais (that's just a massive problem, not an impossibility) but the due to the Irish border. And b) the risk that that would pose to general peace in the UK and Ireland over that side.

One thing I think we can all agree on. This is a complete and utter shambles.