LDL wtf? such bile. Suarez was out for 10 games and we did more than fine. We are in the ****ter if BOTH Suarez and Sturridge are injured, but then aren't most teams if both their strikers are injured.? Our achilles heel is our w**k defending, but bound to happen when we play such a high line and are more attack orientated now unlike the Rafa days based on a more solid structure
There is no current chairman in the PL who has appointed a current manager who has lasted beyond two seasons!
With your love of stats, are you sure you're not a closet gooner? That may well be so, but I doubt there's many who have picked more expensive duds than Levy!...
The main difference is that I try to use stats only when the sample size is large enough to mean that they contain information! The problem with every clubs policy on managers is that most of them get too little time to have any chance of success and the ones that do usually leave a crock of **** for their successor as they retire just before the wheels fall off.
It's interesting how the consensus accepts that the top three are determined that the fourth will come from one of the next four. The numbers only display a slight hint that will be the case. If this were a random chance operation, the chances of the winner coming from the next four instead of the top three would be 25% or more, I think. The chances of one of the top three dropping out would be at least 50% (I guesstimate). The fact that I go along with the consensus is because I believe teams live up to and down to expectations. But if my team were one of the next four (and they are), I'd consider hiring a sports psychologist or, better, a shaman, to try to convince them they belong in the top three.
"It's interesting how the consensus accepts that the top three are determined that the fourth will come from one of the next four. The numbers only display a slight hint that will be the case." The PL stats tell us, for a given top 3 on Jan 1, the likelihood of the : 1. winner coming from the top 3 2. top 3 all being in the top 4 come the end The likelihoods of either/both of the above occurring are high. The stats suggest the team who is in 4th place then, is at much greater risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is.
I wouldn't be so sure yet. You've played a top half side at home only twice this season - W1 L1 (Utd/Soton) - both without Suarez, neither inspiring. But all the big boys to play at Anfield is a big test. Away, 5-0 v Spurs skews the stats a bit - 20 goals conceded in the other 10 games with a 1-0 at Villa the only other clean sheet. Only Fulham and Norwich concede at this rate away. If Suarez isn't banging in goals at the rate he is, I can't see you winning away from home anywhere.
No doubt that Suarez has helped Liverpool to where they are but that's the luxury of having a player of that calibre. We had it with Bale, Utd with van Persie and Rooney, Chelsea with Hazard and Mata (when he plays!) and City with... Well everyone!
Do you mean the history stats, or the probability stats? In any case, wouldn't it be truer to suggest "the team who is in 4th place is at much greater risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is, unless Spurs are third."
"In any case, wouldn't it be truer to suggest "the team who is in 4th place is at much greater risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is, unless Spurs are third." Yes, Spurs will always find a way of going against the prevailing statistical likelihoods.
As of right now we're in fifth, behind Liverpool on GD. So however good we are, we've been better since this thread started. Maybe we should keep it going...
Too right, the mousers have Everton, West Brom and l'Arse coming up. Even if we get done by Citeh, we stand a chance of being above them half way through February.
Can't remember if I said it here or elsewhere but I wouldn't be surprised if we get into the top 4 again until April/May time. I don't expect us to be in the top 4 for any length of time until then at least. If you look at our last 6 fixtures compared to those around us it gives us a great chance to go on a run in the final sprint finish.
